Latin Res Share Discussion Threads

[pork belly] 12/8/2005 17:36

the latest on lodoe, from the Crosby Capital interims yesterday:


Although unusual in Japan, within the first week of our control at IB Daiwa we
announced the restructuring of the previous IB Daiwa business lines that had
failed for so long to generate any value for shareholders. IB Daiwa also
announced that it intended to bid for 100% of Lodore Resources Inc., an AIM
listed company in which Crosby has a 34% interest. I can also report that IB
Daiwa has joined with Crosby in the very exciting Tethyan transaction that we
announced during the period under review. Specifically, IB Daiwa owns a
significant majority of the equity in the bidding vehicle for the takeover of
Tethyan Copper Company Ltd. ('Tethyan').


•Towards the end of 2004 an agreement was reached to sell the US interests
to Lodore Resources ('Lodore') in an all-share transaction which valued
Crosby's subsequent interest in Lodore at US$82.4 million of which US$38.4
million was recognised in the financial statements for the year ended 31
December 2004. On 30 June 2005 IB Daiwa approached Crosby indicating their
intention to acquire 100% of the issued and to be issued share capital of
Lodore. IB Daiwa has offered consideration of 1.599 IB Daiwa shares for
every 10 Lodore shares. Based on the closing price at 30 June 2005 this
offer values our interest in Lodore at US$75 million of which, after taking
a prudent view and applying a discount to the market value, Crosby's
interests in Lodore are currently valued on our balance sheet at US$35.4
million

•Lodore announced in May 2005 that it had acquired an option over deep gas
exploration prospects in onshore Louisiana owned by Pel-Tex Oil Company. An
independent consulting geologist report was conducted to assess the
relative merits of the prospects. Based on the results of this report, a
sophisticated Monte Carlo analysis concluded that an investment of US$30
million into drilling 8 of the prospects might result in an overall
probability of success greater than 90%, with the prospects valued at US$630
million. This provides the possibility of further upside from Crosby's
holding in Lodore when Lodore raise the necessary financing to exploit the
Pel-Tex prospects This is one of the reasons why IB Daiwa has made its offer
for Lodore.

[sheeneqa] 11/8/2005 12:33

IBD now 181y now makes it approx 15p.........

[orvis] 19/7/2005 10:25

IBD are back up today to 235Y.
The takeover offer equates to 19.15p per share at the moment.
At this level there is still potentially a 35% gain from buying in now and waiting say 4-5 months for the takeover to complete.

[shirishg] 15/7/2005 06:44

Post removed by ADVFN

[rambutan2] 15/7/2005 00:44

no worries...

although now well off high.

[pork belly] 14/7/2005 20:51

ib daiwa fell 90.54% to 21 yen !


no idea if that wasa a real fall or some sort of share split. rns to explain 2mnorrow ?

[rambutan2] 14/7/2005 11:00

im v impressed by csb.
despite big rise, there's still value there. imho.
i posted this on the thread yesterday...

rambutan2 - 13 Jul'05 - 12:44 - 223 of 225 edit

meanwhile down under...


the offer doc offers an up-to-date rundown of csb and its intertwinings.

if they manage it they certainly getting tethyan on the cheap.

love the way they going to fund it.



must admit, the more i look at tyc the less likely i think they will get anywhere with the offer, even if they upped it a wack. but perhaps csb know something...

[pork belly] 14/7/2005 10:54

perhaps i should buyiing csb ?

[rambutan2] 14/7/2005 10:47

pork, in case you hadnt realised, ibd is the other party in the offer for tethlan copper. v clever how csb using it. i wonder how big in japan ibd could get?

[pork belly] 14/7/2005 10:13

The Guardian
14 Jul 05

Lodore Resources, the oil and gas exploration company, firmed 0.25p to 14p as it provided shareholders with more details of an all-share offer from Japanese company IB Daiwa. Traders noted that Lodore's 35% shareholder, Crosby Capital, off 0.75p at 50p, recently took management control of IB Daiwa and has an option to buy 34% of the company.

[rambutan2] 13/7/2005 21:34

offer update/details were out on rns today...

[pork belly] 12/7/2005 09:50

issue of new shares in IBD on the basis of 1.59904 shares in IBD for every 10 shares held in Lodore.
Based on the closing price of IBD shares of Y225 on 28 June, 2005 and applying
an exchange rate of #1 : Y199.88, the Offer would represent a price per ordinary share in Lodore of 18 pence.

current IBD share price = 221 yen at close 11 jul 05


current exchange rate: 1.00 GBP = 196.246 JPY , 1 JPY = 0.00502296 GBP


current offer = 1.59904 x (221 x 0.00502296)
current offer = 1.55904 x 1.2959236
current offer = 1.775 pounds (per 10 LRS shares)
current offer = 17.75p

assuming that the offer is still variable and not set in stone ?

[rambutan2] 12/7/2005 09:27

not a clue curry, but i would trust csb to get the best deal possible whichever way they go. that's what they are good at. so i spose more likely on of the latter two?

[currypasty] 12/7/2005 09:20

morning ram, ive not looked at lrs for a while now, i supose i didnt quite understand why the price didnt react to the offer... whats the fund raise likely to be ? placing, rights issue, bank loan, joint venture ?

[rambutan2] 12/7/2005 09:18

agree, ace move (for csb - which i hold). pump up the price of ibd massively and then use its paper to buy in the balance of lodore.

[orvis] 12/7/2005 08:48

My take is that CSB with their intimate knowledge of what's happening / the potential now at Lodore want it all back.
It looked a very good deal when they sold off part of Lodore and retained a load of shares. Now with gas and oil prices higher and with new deals done and in the pipeline it seems an even better deal to own it outright. Hence using IBD to do this.

[rambutan2] 11/7/2005 23:57

yes, i thought the rns looked great pb, and can see why the boss sounded so excited recently. however, i must admit im a tad confused over the implications of the ibd offer, and effectively surely it negates the effect this good news would normally have on the share price as the 18p is a done deal/cap?

[pork belly] 11/7/2005 23:36

30m to get 630m...from only 8 out of their 13 wells.

why are we selling out so cheap ?????????????????????

what am i missing ?

[pork belly] 11/7/2005 23:35

13 mature, ready-to-drill prospects

Data quality is very good

an investment by the Company of US$30 million into drilling eight prospects may result in an overall probability of success of greater than 90%, with the prospects being valued at US$630 million.

With so many robust prospects in the portfolio, statistically the overall risk of failure is small

drilling is expected to commence during this quarter of 2005

[pork belly] 11/7/2005 23:17

just got in. did you see todays RNS at 16:15 ?

looks terrifiic.

[pork belly] 08/7/2005 14:53

good luck orvis.

[orvis] 07/7/2005 16:27

I know what you mean - its difficult to have a feel for a co if its not traded here and you are not a local where it is traded. Plus with such an extraordinary rise already under its belt you have to wonder if IBD has peaked and will fall.
Mind you it could fall 20% or so and you would still break even.

I do think the expected rise in natural resource prices this Autumn will underpin it. And that there is potential for Lodore's new deals to be announced - the ones the chairman was so excited about, once its taken over and this would boost IBD too.
If I thought I would definitely make 25% in say 4 months I would bet the house!
Might be worth betting a room or two though.

[pork belly] 07/7/2005 16:14

orvis,

no, not buying more for the time being. i don't like the volatilty of relying on the IBD share price and i believe there must be a reason the market are valuing LRS at this level. Maybe they also don't like relying on IBD share price ?

[orvis] 07/7/2005 16:00

Are you going to buy more pork belly?
Seems to me that there is potential for a fairly safe 30% gain but it might take a while as takeovers tend to take months to complete. Having said that in 3 months time we may have gas/oil prices even higher than now as it will be Autumn. With Lodore about to announce further gas deals but probably holding these announcements back until after the take over, IBD shares could be even higher then.