Latchways Share Discussion Threads

[geovest] 23/4/2007 13:16

Thats why I compared Revenue and Operating profit of the previous year as the EPS was slightly distorded with effective tax rate variances. Also EPS 2nd half this year will be affected slightly by lower interest income following special dividend payment. I don't have broker forecasts for operating profit, but I am not concerned. The FD told me last year that they prefer to under-promise and over-deliver. My own estimates are (and have been for some time) EPS of 50-52p this year (25p + 25-27p) and 60-65p next year.

[wjccghcc] 23/4/2007 12:45

Geovest, I was looking at the EPS progression. 18.8p 21.4p 25.1p 24.5p for H1 05 through H2 06. Op profit would be better but I don't have the latest forecast for that.

[geovest] 23/4/2007 11:35

WJCCGHCC - Since when is there no seasonality in the building industry. Winter (2nd half) is much slower than summer and closed for much of December. 2005/6 which was a brilliant year (+25%revenue growth) looked as follows: Sales H1: £14.0, H2: £14.0, Operating profit H1: £3.0 H2: £3.1. Threfore even when the company is growing @ around 25%, the ist and 2nd halfs are more or less equal, which will be the same this year. Results in line is accepted to mean within 10% variance, meaning that 2nd half could still be slightly higher than first half.

[wjccghcc] 23/4/2007 09:57

Well, if they're in line, H2 EPS will be 24.5p vs H1 EPS of 25.05p in what doesn't seem to be a particularly seasonal business so growth has definitely slowed. Perhaps Germany is the explanation, but while I disagree with the IC on a lot of things, a PE of 20 was a bit hard to justify until it's clear the slowdown is a temporary blip.

[geovest] 23/4/2007 07:07

IC article said that LTC is a great company in a good niche market but in their opinion may now be overrated. They are concerned that growth may be slowing and at a FW PE of 23 (at the time of their writing) the shareprice may drop. They admit that LTC has the resources to make an aquisition which may change the picture.

IC has been wrong many times in the past about calling good growing companies overvalued and seeing it continue to grow for many years thereafter.

Keep in mind that the brokers forecast was moved from 45p to 49.55p/share after half year results and the company expects to achieve this. That is a 25% growth year-on-year which is great in anyones books. This will put it on a PE of 21.5 for the year to March 07 (therefore effectively historic now) Broker estimates for Mar 08 is 55.5p (too conservative) for a FW PE of 19.

Someting else to take into account. When I spoke to Management earlier last year, they told me that they changed the main distributer of their products in Germany because the business has stagnated for years. That meant effectively losing a substantial (£5m I think) amount of business and having to rebuild the order book with the new supplier. They knew that would mean a hit on sales and profit for 2006/7 year (no need to make an announcement because it would be easily absorbed in the increased profit overall) but would show substantially better results in 2007/8. They were also very excited about the products they were developing for the American market, again with sales only staring to flow in the 2007/2008 year.

I am therefore confident that the growth will continue at a rate of around 20 - 25% this year. I am happy to continue holding this for the longer term.

[toriel] 20/4/2007 09:52

Having sold out of LTC (one of my favourite companies...) in early December I would have expected to be getting get back in around now, but the recent pre-close statement from the company was rather disappointing. LTC has a sound record of outperforming market expectations, but their "in-line" statement looks more guarded than usual.

I see that IC has issued a sell note on LTC today - does anyone know the contents? It looks as though Peel Hunt's suggestion of a price around 830-840p (message 95), which I thought last December was a littly too gloomy, might be about right. We shall see.

[Abuse team] 07/2/2007 09:16

Post removed by ADVFN

[m.t.glass] 07/2/2007 08:54

This from Rental Product News - Feb 6



State of Washington clarifies use of harnesses in scissor lifts issue

Following the release of a widely circulated story stating that the State of Washington had issued a document requiring the use of harnesses on scissor lifts, Aerial Work Platform Training (AWPT), an organization that exists to promote the safe and effective use of powered access equipment sought clarification of the new requirement.

After speaking directly with Dan K. McMurdie, compliance operations manager from the State of Washington's Division of Occupational Safety & Health, AWPT's Tony Groat learned that there was a misunderstanding of the rules found in the recently released document from the Washington State Department of Labor and Industries. According to McMurdie, "The Division of Occupational Safety and Health has not changed the requirements for fall protection while using scissor lifts. The requirement is still standard guardrails on all open sides. Full-body harness and lanyard is only required when working from a boom-elevated platform or rotating aerial device."

Further clarification of the new rules contained in Chapter 296-869 WAC "Elevating Work Platforms" can be found on the Department's web site at

The misunderstanding of the new rule apparently stems from wording found in Section WAC 296-869-20045, "Working from the Platform", that states, "Make sure all persons in the platform wear a full-body harness with lanyard attached." This section however, pertains only to "Aerial Lifts" which are defined as, "An aerial device mounted on a vehicle such as a truck, trailer, or all-terrain vehicle."

Scissor lifts are not considered "Aerial Lifts;" they fall into the classification of "Elevating Work Platforms." Specifically, scissor lifts are called "Self-propelled elevating work platforms" which are defined as, "A self-propelled, integral chassis, elevating work platform with a platform that can't be positioned completely beyond the base."

AWPT is in complete agreement with the recently adopted rules and notes that anyone working in boom lifts, whether self-propelled or vehicle-mounted, should wear a full-body harness, with an adjustable lanyard set as short as is possible.

Users of scissor lifts and other vertical platforms need not normally wear harnesses. AWPT stresses that the use of any platform, however, should be preceded by a job specific risk analysis and take into consideration the manufacturer's instructions.

To clarify their position, AWPT has drafted Technical Guidance Note H1 providing simple guidance on when to wear a harness. This document is in the final stages of approval and is due to be finalized early this year. An international version of H1 was recently issued by the International Powered Access Federation and can be downloaded at

[huttonr] 04/1/2007 09:36

Perhaps i was a bit optimistic on the size of the dip in price?

[wjccghcc] 04/1/2007 08:48

Looks like I was pretty lucky on the timing of my buy back :-)

[wjccghcc] 03/1/2007 10:48

Given they were 10 quid before the results, I think it unlikely unless they overshoot on the downside as well :-)

[huttonr] 03/1/2007 10:32

Agree with the last 2 posts - squeeze and an overshoot in price above the trend with the current down getting us back to the trend - I'm still expecting (hoping?) for the price to go a bit lower below buying - £9.50 - 10.00??

[wjccghcc] 03/1/2007 08:35

It was squeezed higher on the back of smallcap entry and is now returning to its trendline as the CEO released some liquidity. I just bought a few back at 1050. Looking to add more if we get to 10 quid.

[toriel] 03/1/2007 08:19

smudge13: I've been surprised myself, not that there should be a fall, since that seemed very likely, but at its speed. There has been fairly steady selling, though the volumes look low.

The fundamentals still look good for LTC. Personally, I am pleased to see the stock falling, since, having sold out towards the end of last year, I look forward to buying back in again in due course and the further the drop before I decide to buy the better. It's starting to look as though "in due course" might be sooner than I had anticipated, but I shall wait until it seems that the fall really has come to an end before I start buying again, so I shall be on the sidelines for a little while yet, I think.

[smudge13] 02/1/2007 19:35

Anyone know why there is suddenly so much downward pressure on this stock.

Thanks.

[huttonr] 21/12/2006 12:23

Today's price oscillations do seem to confirm a very small free float of shares - a very small turnover has caused a large fluctuation but, I suppose, it does create an opportunity to buy in at a relatively low price. I do think that LTC is a bit overvalued at the current price but, certainly, if it does drop back to around the £10 mark, I'll jump in again.

[geovest] 21/12/2006 12:15

Toriel, LTC was included in Smallcap index from this month.
Market just shaking out the suckers after very strong rise since Nov. Nothing goes up in a straight line.

[toriel] 21/12/2006 11:24

Having held these shares for a longer period than any other in the last five years, I sold out completely a short time ago. Nevertheless, I'm still a fan of the company.

I'm interested in the comment that Huttonr reports - that Peel Hunt sees a low point of 830-840p were entry into the FTSE small cap index not to come about. Although the current price still looks high to me (even after the fall of more than one pound this morning) 830p looks, by contrast, to be too low, whatever index LTC finds itself in. If the price gets anywhere near 850p I shall be buying my shares back, and adding to them.

[profiting] 14/12/2006 22:59

Jaykay

Payable on 12th January 2007 for all shareholders registered on the 15th December 2006.

[jaykay1981] 14/12/2006 10:25

Profiting - when did the div pay? thinking of opening a long position

[profiting] 13/12/2006 20:36

Where is everybody on this thread?

Very good results and a 30p special dividend but no comment !!!!!

Still keeping these as given current legislation and their market leader position they still have further to go and may even be due a re-rating.

[Abuse team] 09/12/2006 21:55

Post removed by ADVFN

[diogenesj] 09/12/2006 21:28

Probably to do with the fact that as expected it has just been promoted to the FTSE All-Share Index, which means that tracker funds are forced to buy in regardless of the rating.

[huttonr] 07/12/2006 15:42

Price now up to £13.22 - this seems to be getting a bit silly now - even assuming a 50p+ EPS for this year - so, is something going on behind the scenes?

[diogenesj] 15/11/2006 10:59

Yes, very odd that, Geovest, and needs more explanation imo. I've been assuming that forecasts would be raised at least 15%-20% after those results.