Latchways Share Discussion Threads

[geovest] 15/11/2006 10:56

Another well considered broker response. The company announce interim results 17% ahead of broker forecast with positive 'more of the same' outlook...... and the broker's response... instead of admitting they were wrong and re-doing the numbers, increase their forecast by 3%???.......and they get paid for that!!!

[wjccghcc] 15/11/2006 10:45

Also, they've only raised their forecast by 1.2p despite LTC beating their H1 forecasts by 2.4p. Something tells me they're going to beat the new forecast pretty easily with their current momentum.

[diogenesj] 15/11/2006 10:42

Many thanks, Huttonr, very helpful. Unless forecasts rise considerably, the shares do look rather expensive. But after the share price rise, I think entry to the Small Cap index is no longer an outside prospect, but pretty well guaranteed, and that should help a lot in the short term.

[diogenesj] 15/11/2006 09:42

Yes, entry to the small cap index in December now guaranteed, I think, and that should help the share price considerably in the short term, as All-Share tracker funds are forced to buy in. I'd really like to see the the latest KBC forecasts, though, if anyone has access to them.

[geovest] 15/11/2006 09:38

'not seen any upgrades yet.
The latest rise in share price should now ensure that LTC gets promoted from the Fledging index to the SmallCap index, which is part of the All Share index, at the December review. This will result in greater institutional appeal and on the radar of more fund managers.

[diogenesj] 14/11/2006 22:33

Has anyone seen any revised forecasts since the results (I'm assuming they will be revised upwards)?

[wjccghcc] 13/11/2006 12:22

Yep. Thought you were talking about income tax. My bad.

[huttonr] 13/11/2006 11:10

WJCCGHCC - re your PEP dividends - already taxed, I'm afraid, and Gordon Brown removed the ability to reclaim tax. They do avoid the 40% tax rate for income tax so at least that's something.

[wjccghcc] 13/11/2006 10:48

Ah, well mine are in my PEP so special dividend will be tax-free (I think).

Agreed that it's nice to have management who believe they can exploit the global opportunities for the business organically without having to throw cash at acquisitions.

[toriel] 13/11/2006 09:28

This is one of my largest holdings too, though I can't add to it right now.

I'm slightly disappointed to see the large special dividend (30p doesn't look so hot after the tax take; I'd prefer a share buyback), but there's a good side to this shedding of cash too. Many firms that build up cash as fast as LTC are doing would be casting around for something, anything, to spend it on, and might be lured into unwise takeovers of firms that are a poor match to the core business. Management here is clearly not going down that route, which is encouraging. Pity poor old Farepak didn't have LTC directors running the show.

[wjccghcc] 13/11/2006 09:09

One of my largest holdings but couldn't resist adding more at the open. They're going to smash this year's forecasts IMHO. And a self-perpetuating cash machine to boot :-)

[huttonr] 13/11/2006 08:19

Agreed - excellent results - and a share price rise already - so I guess that we should be looking at 55p EPS for the full year and a price target of 1200p, perhaps.

[geovest] 13/11/2006 08:02

Excellent results yet again and a 30p special divi to boot!

[huttonr] 09/11/2006 10:33

Is anyone guessing at the results due on Monday?
- I am assuming 25p EPS and then probably a small share price rise - tho' it is possible that the rise during October will cover the improvement due to the interims. Anyway, if we do get 25p then I think that the brokers will need to up their forecasts from 45p for the year.

[golden lane] 29/10/2006 16:56

I bought these near the beginning of this year so am quite happy. I'd quite like to see the stock split though as it might help the liquidity and make the share price more manageable - some people are put off by big share prices for obvious reasons.

The recent Result of AGM statement included authority for a share buyback, which could add to the strong trading in pushing the stock higher if the company buys stock in the market. Maybe therell be more details with the interims in a couple of weeks.

[mitzis] 26/10/2006 07:52

Cheers nirvs that what I want to know.

[nirvs] 25/10/2006 15:36

mitzis - Just measure the price moves when LTC broke up from previous pennants to get an idea of how large this move could be.

ie 16 August to 15 Sept = 170pts

[mitzis] 25/10/2006 14:10

What an amazing share any price targets please..

[nirvs] 25/10/2006 09:58

Toriel- The price rose yesterday on hidden buying activity. Volume can be hidden, so although there was no volume yesterday does not mean that it won't show up sooner or later. Some trades showing up today are probably attributed to yesterday's buying...

LTC only has an NMS of 500 shares. Any trades going thru at over 3.5x NMS can be hidden for a period of hours (these are usually engineered to show up the next day). Even larger trades over 7x/9x NMS can be hidden for periods over a week...

On some trades, volumes can be hidden almost indefinately until 90% of the position has been unwound.

Most importantly the price DID rise on some activity. Whether it was engineered for the upcoming results does not matter. Buy the rumour, sell the news comes to mind... I agree with your views on a split...I hope they do not split...

Enjoy the ride...I am...lol

[toriel] 23/10/2006 15:52

"Breakout" may be a little too enthusiastic; while there's a strong rise today, it's on modest volume.

Today's jump might be due to a shortage of stock among MMs, but just as easily could be engineered by them ahead of the results next month. Whatever the cause of the jump, though, those of us with LTC shares are just that little bit richer this evening, which is nice.

At what sort of level would the company consider a stock split, I wonder? It's not obvious that a split would be of benefit to the company, and there are obviously costs associated with such a move. There's probably some banker somewhere rubbing his/her hands at the thought of telling the company that a split would "increase the marketability" of the shares. This has always seemed to me to be almost total rubbish for shares worth several pounds rather than a few pence. Buying 1,000,000 shares at 0.5p may be more fun than buying 1,000 shares at £5, but buying 1,000 at £10 doesn't feel different to me from buying 4,000 at £2.50.

But then what do I know, being neither a banker nor a lawyer...

[chester] 23/10/2006 11:06

Breakout Guys.

[geovest] 04/9/2006 08:16

Huttonr - I attended the agm and had a very positive discussion with management afterwards. I am confident that we would see 50-55p EPS this year. Growth potential remains fantastic with loads of potential in Europe, USA and rest of the world. Worth tucking away for the long term.

[huttonr] 02/9/2006 09:30

A very good AGM statement - and a nice little rise yesterday - we're nearly back up to the peak again so progress towards the 900p mark is looking good.
From the tone of the remarks, I would guess that we should be looking for 50p EPS this year and the brokers will be changing their forecasts soon.