Land Securities Share Discussion Threads

[flyfisher] 09/11/2020 11:21

Broker consensus seem to indicate around 1bn loss for the year, the majority of which will be valuation reductions in retail and leisure.

[dandanactionman] 09/11/2020 10:18

Any views on what we are expecting in results tomorrow? 1. All IMHO DYOR but I would expect another fall in NAV 2. Appears that Some-sort of dividend will be announced (but at what level?)Daniel

[hugepants] 30/10/2020 16:02

These look interesting at this level. Huge discount. Covenants also look unbreakable. 60% drop in values required.

[flyfisher] 23/10/2020 08:22

''kitchen sink time''

That normally happens before the new CEOs option scheme is granted, wasn't that a few months ago?

[williamcooper104] 23/10/2020 07:45

Hard to think that today's the best time to sell leisure assets - but there's unprecedented amounts of PE dry powder Historically LAND used to hold assets at around 5 percent below actual value so anything could be sold at "5 percent above book value" So I wouldn't necessarily assume that the valuations are totally wrong Also a new CEO won't push the valuers - kitchen sink time

[flyfisher] 23/10/2020 07:28

Given that LAND has decided that leisure,hotels and retail parks are non core the comment in the SIR update regarding their travelodge assets has some relevance for values.

''As part of the process of exploring the Company's options, the Company also ran a sales process where, reassuringly, multiple bids supported the 30 June 2020 hotels portfolio valuation.''

For the LAND disposal process it could be that hotels and retail parks can attract buyers close to current valuations, but the leisure sector looks more problematic

[williamcooper104] 19/10/2020 21:04

Well put Deep value or catchy catchy falling knife

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2020 21:01

MCKS and CLS may be worth putting on a watchlist.

With our current backdrop would not put it in any stronger terms than that.

[williamcooper104] 19/10/2020 18:09

I'm more tempted now that we've seen more transaction evidence and two large occupiers trying to buy buildings for their own use I am generally nervous as most of the times listed equity trades at discounts to NAV the underlying market catches up - eg 2007 and retail reits for the last few years

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2020 18:05

William, were you not tempted by Helical(HLCL) around it's recent low?.

Discount to NAV was near 60% a few weeks back.



Thanks for the reply on grey space.

[williamcooper104] 19/10/2020 18:02

It's an interesting one - not least because, of course, this isn't like any other downturn, so no-one really knows There's about 6m sf of grey space availability in city/west end - however most of this is for 5-30k sf units - so if you are a large occupier needing 50k plus then the grey market - right now - won't help you and you will need to pre-let spaceThe development pipeline is much tighter, because of Brexit, than it otherwise would be Right now the red book values of prime offices are right - and there's a huge arbitrage given the discounts to NAV (why Brookfield and KKR are buying REITs) - but of course this could change

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2020 16:02

In terms of the short term SP, first issue is Brexit (I'm discounting wider UKX levels etc).

All things been equal there is 10% downside or 10% + upside on a deal/no deal exit.

(This is not a political point, it's just my best guessestimate on those two eventualities).

Secondly the moritorium. Further lockdowns or trading restrictions may see this
extended for another 6 months plus.

In shopping centres, rents determined by turnover are likely to see a significant rent reset lower - retail parks look the far stronger asset to hold in this context.

Grey space in the London office market potentially impactimg rents- this is not an area I understand enough to give a view on - it should impact prime office rents less?.

If anyone can provide clarity or give a view on grey space, it would be appreciated.

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2020 15:37

QP, would have been helpful if the then BOD had anticipated some secular sector trends
5 years ago!, but we are where we are etc.

[williamcooper104] 19/10/2020 12:54

It is all of thatBut yet it's back to land secs origins of being a large scale/whole estate developer - which is where BL is headed towards It's the right thing for them to do Don't expect the divi though to be restored at anything other than a low level

[flyfisher] 19/10/2020 11:44

QP, I agree with your comments, but they should speak in plain english, re purpose is fine, reimagine is drivel.

[nickrl] 19/10/2020 10:27

flyfisher my sentiments exactly when i paged through the presentation all glossy and buzz word heavy and little recognition that the world may look different in 2021 and what will they do if it doesn't look as rosy as they forecast. At least they have a broad portfolio so can change tack if they need to.

[flyfisher] 19/10/2020 09:07

Strategy update - ''Reimagine our retail business.''

Are they also going to dream up rental payments and profits?

[ny boy] 08/10/2020 08:20

Office deals in London on the up, investors snapping up bargains, this is an accumulation job at current levels imo