Land Securities Share Discussion Threads

[ny boy] 08/4/2020 13:27

I decided to buy a few this week as I forgot just how much they have fallen by!

Also bought a load of HMSO @ 57p, another that looks completely oversold, naturally one expects an early end to lock down, sometime next month!

[flyfisher] 08/4/2020 10:46

Essential Investor, gearing, debt and cost of capital are significantly lower now than 2008.
Debt servicing costs are about a third of 2008 level in the case of BLND and i guess are similar at LAND, whilst asset value falls in retail seem highly likely, i don't see a need for capital raising.

[essentialinvestor] 03/4/2020 11:33

We know there may be major NAV falls to come, REIT share prices and current NAV discounts are screaming this.

It's a case of at what level is this factored in and will an equity raise be required?.

[ny boy] 03/4/2020 10:48

Longer the lockdown goes on for the more likely, there will be little business to return too

Whole sector getting savaged by the bears will continue until investor know when we are on top of CV

[aurelius5] 02/4/2020 21:30

Yes, there are some bargains out there for the brave, but the biggest appear to be in sectors where long-term structural issues combine with short-term problems, oil for example. If you believe there'll be high inflation in the coming years - and I do- then oil and commodities could be a strong bet. In the short term, I'm expecting further significant falls. I suppose we all have our own metrics to try to pinpoint a bottom. Mine would be when the yield on BNKR approaches 4%.

[essentialinvestor] 02/4/2020 21:24

EJ, you are aware that only a blue can tick down?, just saying.

[essentialinvestor] 02/4/2020 21:14

Not holding LandSec currently atm, but watching.

The market rarely makes it easy to make really great % returns,
they are usually made in buying when it is very difficult to do so.

We've already seen some prices in this bear market that are unlikely to be seen again imv.

The flip side to that is there are some stocks I follow that still look overvalued,
so guessing there may be large pockets of overvaluation remaining.

[aurelius5] 02/4/2020 21:02

True! Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but better late than never.

[essentialinvestor] 02/4/2020 20:09

The time to get out of LAND was arguably at the 20% plus NAV Premium it was selling on 5 years ago.

[aurelius5] 02/4/2020 19:52

The outlook for many Reits was murky enough before the current crisis - growing use of CVAs, the decline of the high street etc. - but it's now looking dire. These are income investments, pure and simple, and when they stop paying out with no clear guidance on when distributions will resume, it's time to get out. I expect them to resume dividend payments in around a year, but at a "rebased" level.

[essentialinvestor] 02/4/2020 18:51

An equity raise around current levels may be highly value destructive.

[essentialinvestor] 02/4/2020 15:24

I would like to see some BOD buying from the non execs or Chairman.

[jonwig] 02/4/2020 12:47

EJ - to give a more complete answer.

1) Not all working will be 'from home', not all shopping will be online, not all eating by delivery man. An equilibrium will be reached.(And motor traffic reduction in large cities will be a major strategy.)

2) I've been told that the bare land of a property has about one-third of its current use value. Who knows, LAND may become a residential landlord.

3) Mixed-use property is probably the future in cities: flats, shops, leisure, offices, open spaces in one development. This is BLND's strategy, and I should say that I hold BLND, not LAND.

The last reported NAV at 30 Sept was 1296p, so we're at 59% discount to that. Obviously the NAV will be marked down but with "material uncertainty". If this is to be classed as a survivors' market, these two companies will be in that class.

Also, I'd look out for the oft-rumoured merger: "British Land Securities".

[jonwig] 02/4/2020 11:24

EJ - yes, but years rather than months!

[nickrl] 02/4/2020 10:54

Eithin whilst i cant condone LAND fore retrospectively pulling a divi going XD these are extraordinary circumstances and if having cash puts off a right issue seems appropriate.

Also LAND are first propco who realise the severity of the situation and are acknowledging then rent forbearance not deferral is the only course of action for some of there tenants. Hopefully those tenants (if they survive) will look kindly on that gesture in evaluating there business models going forward.

[eithin] 02/4/2020 07:15

April dividend not being paid.

[essentialinvestor] 01/4/2020 18:49

Helical is the quality sector play imv. I got some under 2.02,
however unfortunately not available in any quantity near those levels.

GPOR are very well placed, they have been net sellers for the last 5/6 years.

A nicely timed recent director buy at Great Portland as well.

SHB longer term worth watching.


In terms of the LandSec NAV discount, the market appears to be anticipating large NAV falls?.

However, you could make a case that's already allowed for in the SP?.

It's the retail element of the portfolio that may shed some light on the current valuation?, may be.

[ny boy] 01/4/2020 18:48

50% crash from the highs, does not mean these are cheap, there needs to be a complete reset of rental values to attract solvent tenants to fill space, good times are over, property values residential/commercial could fall 25-50% if this lockdown goes on longer than 3 months, without any business being conducted. We are talking a severe recession/depression imo The global repercussions could be unthinkable
Cash & Gold will be King

[jonwig] 01/4/2020 18:38

EJ - funnily enough, I've been reading just the opposite. Working from home is common amongst the kind of people who thrive by exchanging ideas, throwing them about person-to-person. There are also comments that it's far from easy to maintain concentration.

The only people who thrive on it seem to be novelists.

[essentialinvestor] 01/4/2020 17:17

The now use LTV, rather than net gearing.

Net borrowings are £3.6 billion, approx.