Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[wba1] 22/10/2021 12:59

Added some. The reaction to the statement about storms etc is way overdone and bizarre. They have explicitly said the cost is within expectations for such events. The risk pricing for products includes two elements - attritional loss costs and an explicit amount for cat events. Given their statement I take it to mean that the losses are covered by the cat element of risk pricing (if it does not mean this they are deliberately misleading the market as this would be the understood meaning in the industry. So the announcement actually means they expect results to be as expected from their pricing.

[bulltradept] 22/10/2021 11:17

Still tradable.

[professor john koestler] 21/10/2021 15:38

Years ago when the central banks wanted to get high on QE it created 'money for nothing' which hedge funds utilised to their benefit. Soon the traditional avenues of hedge funds were crowded leaving poor returns and hence they moved into reinsurance markets. As the credit cycle unwinds and risks - real and perceived - grow in the (re)insurance sector opportunity does arise for those that are best at their game. Lancashire raised money to grow underwriting and Conduit IPO'd to take advantage. I don't think the industry kings/veterans would bother to come back at their ages already millionaires umpteen times over if the opportunity wasn't real. I'm no professional in this sector and so hold all four on the LSE - each a small percentage in my portfolio with Beazley the highest.

[1knocker] 21/10/2021 15:26

Having waited for months, I now wish I had waited a few more days! Never mind, anything under 550 seems to me to be a good buying price.

The worst thing for a catastrophe is a long period without a catastrophe! Rates drop, and the risk /reward ratio for the insurer becomes less favourable. Also, when the house next door burns down, you check you have insurance, and think about increasing the sum insured.

Lancashire's discipline seems to me to have been good, looking to underwrite at profitable rates rather than to chase volume.

[eastbourne1982] 21/10/2021 10:38

I'm buying, £5.20 is a good entry point.

[professor john koestler] 21/10/2021 10:30

4% down on 52 week low now.

[professor john koestler] 21/10/2021 10:29

Best thing with these insurers is just to keep them low percentages within your over all portfolio.

[professor john koestler] 21/10/2021 10:26

"If you look at the last 10 years of share price, the business has gone nowhere. They pay decent divis in good times and then engage in rights issues taking the cash back in again. Not a great business model!"

The business model in that regard is fine. They take the money when market prices are hardening and when they are soft they don't assume they are your best opportunity cost and give it you back. That is why the share price has gone nowhere because it is a symptom of the business model. If you look at overall returns with dividends and the average ROE year-by-year, it is one of the best in the business.

Bizarre that you sell when catastrophe events happen. That should be bread and butter for all of us to eat and disregard as investors in insurance. If catastrophe frightens you you shouldn't be here in the first place!

The question is: has the quality of underwriting standards fallen. I don't think so. I don't think it needs to. With interest rates likely to increase and catastrophes likely to be more frequent - or seen to be more frequent - with climate change, great opportunity presents itself to those who can ride the fear, collect the data, keep the underwriting standards and remain in the game.

I'll be adding if the price falls notably.

[bulltradept] 21/10/2021 10:11

In and out several times!

[salpara111] 21/10/2021 08:35

Clearly some in the market knew this was coming.
I have exited taking quite a big hit.
If you look at the last 10 years of share price, the business has gone nowhere. They pay decent divis in good times and then engage in rights issues taking the cash back in again. Not a great business model!

[bulltradept] 21/10/2021 08:25

Ah so now we know why its not gone any where!

A buy @ £5.25 or under of it get there.

[1knocker] 20/10/2021 03:42

Hope springs eternal ....but no 549.75

[buoycat] 19/10/2021 20:56

A typo obvs.

[lavagrouch] 18/10/2021 17:10

1Knocker - post 1442
Bought at 449.75p
Really?

[1knocker] 14/10/2021 09:55

The price action is looking better, fingers crossed. Could it be that it has turned the corner?

[hopan] 12/10/2021 19:47

Thanks... I wonder whether the hurricane last month in the states has any correlation with the current depressed stock price?

[1knocker] 12/10/2021 16:38

I bought a few more at 449.75 today. When this company has a good year, it pays out huge dividends. That is good sense, given the nature of the business. Historically, it does not chase volume when premiums are low and pays out when it makes profits and not in bad years, rather than trying to smooth the dividend yield.

The underwriting environment looks respectable to me at present, and insurance has to be bought even when money is tight. The share price is I suspect depressed only because it is a while since we had a big payday, and because the uninitiated look only at the dividends percentage published on the stock price page of the newspaper, which relates only to the regular dividends. It is encouraging that there was insider buying at a much higher price not so long ago. I am optimistic. Value is not easy o find at present.

Fingers crossed for the figures to be disclosed on 4 November.

[feddie] 05/10/2021 08:56

Time to change the dividend policy.

[cravencottage] 04/10/2021 21:25

Strange times in the markets atm..

The baby is being chucked out with the bathwater with lots of decent Co's including the highly regarded Lancashire.

It'll be interesting to see at what levels instituion's ie Polar Capital consolidate their holdings?

[essentialinvestor] 04/10/2021 17:45

Just seen the SP, nearing the March 2020 plunge low.

Sector companies saying it's the best rates environment in many years,
share prices indicating something else.

[cwa1] 01/10/2021 17:34

1 October 2021

Hamilton, Bermuda

Notice of Q3 2021 Trading Statement and Conference Call

Lancashire Holdings Limited ("Lancashire" or "the Company") will be announcing
its 2021 third quarter trading statement at 7:00am UK time on Thursday 4
November 2021 and hosting an analyst and investor conference call at 1:00pm UK
time / 9:00am EDT on Thursday 4 November 2021. The conference call will be
hosted by Lancashire management.

[chrisb1103] 17/9/2021 10:30

Poor price action here. Trying to keep the faith remembering the Chairman spent £145K at 637p per share only last month.
Perhaps the weakness might prompt some takeover chatter, due some of that again as it's been a while :)

[salpara111] 16/9/2021 09:43

Beginning to wish I had cut and run!

[salpara111] 28/7/2021 08:41

Pretty solid result.
Happy to hold for the moment.