Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 20/3/2019 12:49

Tipped today as a Buy in the Telegraph's Questor column:

'Questor: a firm that turns away business? It’s actually the route to strong returns. Buy
Questor share tip: rather than chasing growth, Lancashire, the insurer, refuses to deploy its capital in unprofitable areas – instead it returns excess cash to shareholders'. [continues]

[jrphoenixw2] 14/2/2019 17:25

Yesterday it was +3.3% but on disappointing volume of 289k; in which case I never know whether the price move has much significance.
Today it's +7.1% on MUCH better volume; about 1.8m per the LSE site.

[deadly] 14/2/2019 11:36

Decent results and better than expected? Up 5% so far today.

[jrphoenixw2] 21/1/2019 11:44

... no Director's buy deals for 11 months...

[jrphoenixw2] 03/12/2018 19:33

It's getting tossed around amongst illiquidity. +3% in the morning, yet it closed down -0.4%. Volume per yahoo = a meagre 280k vs a 30-day avg. vol. of 685k, ie 41%
Good luck if you have any volume to offload right now...

[jrphoenixw2] 21/11/2018 22:14

Fri/16th +1.03% 584 > 590
Mon/19th +3.39%
Tue/20th +2.13%
Wed 21st +3.53% > 645 = +9.32% since Friday close, +10.5% since Friday open

Meanwhile:
Ftse-100 Fri/16 at the open to this pm's close = +0.17%
Ftse-250 [ditto] = effectively flat

Only notable news re: LRE I'm aware of in the interim is Philidelphia Fin Mngmt Inc reduced their short from -0.61% to -0.49% on Tue/20th. On 201.3mm issued shares that's a reduction of +241.5k shares. 30-Day average volume at present = c660-665k, ie that PFM trade = about 36.4% of the daily average.

[jrphoenixw2] 09/11/2018 13:25

Yahoo Finance has the rate at noon at 1.3027

[jrphoenixw2] 08/11/2018 13:04

X/D today for US$0.20, approx 15.3p
The £/$ conversion rate is fixed tomorrow [Record date] @ noon.

[harleymaxwell] 07/11/2018 09:27

Scor moving upCan only see further consolidation in this segment

[jrphoenixw2] 05/11/2018 09:47

Some of those issues you list are mentioned in Hiscox results today. LRE are likely getting negative read-across from that. 'Hiscox warns of slower premium growth towards end of year'.

I hadn't heard of SCOR,
Additionally looking at Google/news on them it seems they've recently aleady rebuffed one M&A approach.

[harleymaxwell] 05/11/2018 08:46

In fact jr the one I watch closely is scor in France - their price holding up well under speculation of t/over

[harleymaxwell] 05/11/2018 08:08

Some large market losses out there which these and others will be affected byJapanese typhoons x2Hurricane MichaelSuper yacht fire BremenTread carefully - although outsize losses could force further m n a.....IMHO

[jrphoenixw2] 02/11/2018 12:19

Interesting, thx for that Harley.
Next date on my radar is the Record Date 9-Nov, when the £/$ FX rate applicable to the conversion of the US$0.20 dividend is set at noon.
FWIW Sterling rose 1.4% vs US$ yesterday, it's largest rise since January 2018.

[harleymaxwell] 01/11/2018 23:10

So consolidation continued with renaissance re in the us biying Tokyo millennium re - seems like a buy it be bought environment.....

[jrphoenixw2] 01/11/2018 08:59

3Q out this morning. Haven't read it in detail yet but noted: 'SPECIAL DIVIDEND OF $0.20 PER COMMON SHARE' ...
'Lancashire announces that its Board of Directors has declared a special dividend for 2018 of $0.20 per common share (approximately (£0.15) per common share at the current exchange rate), which will result in an aggregate payment of approximately $40.0 million. The dividend will be paid in Pounds Sterling on 12 December 2018 (the "Dividend Payment Date") to shareholders of record on 9 November 2018 (the "Record Date") using the £ / $ spot market exchange rate at 12 noon London time on the Record Date.'

[harleymaxwell] 22/10/2018 06:06

Interesting.I work in the industry and can only assume m+a speculation would push the price up - it's a tough environment with lots of large losses around , limited prior year reserve release to support results wafer thin margins and I think a smaller market place will evolve as a consequence

[jrphoenixw2] 21/10/2018 23:07

It was just an observation from cranking my weekly portfolio numbers. +/- %numbers like that (either way) are *BIG* for me and a '-' of such usually spells really bad L/T downside IME, and that's rare in my late-stage 'low-drama portolfio'. To see it reversed right back up like that is a first.
But I'd have to work in the City, +/or closer to the industry to tell you quite what happened there. - The last time in the past week or two I was keeping a weather-eye on the daily volume versus 30-day average though suggested more trading, so whatever caused it must have been something pretty unusual... IMPO....

[harleymaxwell] 21/10/2018 21:24

Interesting observation. Any conclusion or just a fact?!

[jrphoenixw2] 20/10/2018 12:38

I've run the weekly numbers on my FTSE-350 stocks. The last 2 weeeks have been a yo-yo for LRE. It's extrememly rare for me to see almost 'symmetrical' volatility like this...

Last week -50.5p/-8.6% from 587
This week +50/+9.3% to 586.5
If not for Friday's 1/2p drop, we'd have ended exactly where we started 2 weeks ago!

[harleymaxwell] 08/10/2018 17:51

I work in the sector - personal view - m and a for the smaller caps can be the only way to achieve shareholder value - look at ren re and scor both publicly in play - all have good profile and platforms but can't grow top line and bottom line simultaneously being left behind to flounder....

[chrissh] 08/10/2018 16:15

Would be interested on your thoughts for potential buyer / merger?

[jrphoenixw2] 08/10/2018 08:33

RNS extracts this morning:
'Insurer Lancashire To Record Negative Return After Catastrophe Claims
Insurer Lancashire Holdings Ltd on Monday said it recorded a negative return on equity for the third quarter of 2018 due to losses from a number...
Given these loss estimates, the Company expects that it will produce a negative return on equity for the third quarter of 2018. Absent these events, the Company would have been profitable for the third quarter. The Company also expects to remain profitable for the first 9 months of 2018. Lancashire will provide a more detailed update as part of its earnings release covering the Group's financial statements for the third quarter of 2018 due for release on 1 November 2018. '
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Curious statement in para 2^. Akin to 'Sh*t happens, but if it didn't we'd have made money...'

[harleymaxwell] 08/10/2018 08:28

Take out time maybe?

[pogue] 14/9/2018 10:06

Major flooding on coast but inland wont feel it so damage is limited compared with what was expected which is why the share price here is rising IMHO.