Kosmos Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fraserdean] 30/8/2023 12:01

Cheers, a technical success...

[xxnjr] 30/8/2023 10:55

Nothing illuminating from Upstream other than "The semi-submersible drilling rig Deepsea Bollsta left the Cullinan well location over the weekend, to drill an appraisal well on one of its earlier discoveries."

However on Cullinan

"Upstream was told that the Cullinan-1X probe was targeting a carbonate structure, thought to extend into Galp Energia's block to the north.

And while the well failed to discover commercial volumes of oil and gas, a Shell spokesperson said the results suggested a working petroleum system could be present.

“The well did not make a discovery. However, we are encouraged to have found indications of a working petroleum system in this previously untested area of our licence.

"The well has been plugged and abandoned and we will now analyse the data gathered before deciding on any follow-up activity."

Shell's spokesperson added: "We continue to see important exploration potential in our licence and to progress our multi-well exploration and appraisal campaign.”

One source familiar with Namibian exploration activities, said that while Cullinan “was disappointing, it would be fair to say this result doesn’t downgrade the value” of Shell’s acreage."

[xxnjr] 30/8/2023 10:13

If the rig is actually drilling a 20 km appraisal that kind of suggests Shell's bit is potentially bigger than previously thought. And maybe drilling closer to the block boundary? Could be entirely wrong though!

[xxnjr] 30/8/2023 10:07

Even IOC's need an element of luck in exploration. Like Exxon didn't get lucky in Brasil pre-salt. Suriname aren't as well blessed a Guyana etc etc. Having said that some of the Kosmos guys clearly understood what they were doing; Ceiba, Jubilee, Tortue etc, Namibia blocks divested to Shell. That is quite an impressive resume.

[fraserdean] 30/8/2023 09:51

Thanks. Yeah that drill was too quick. Galp won't be happy, they're drilling in Nov and they were hoping Cullinan straddled into their block big time. Guess they'll be rewriting their plans.

[xxnjr] 29/8/2023 23:02

Cullinan was thought to be high risk apparently.

On Marine Traffic; Nara and "Jonker-1A" are both about 35kms each from Venus-1X. I don't recollect the Shell rig being that close to Total's rigs before.

If I believe my previous coordinates "J-1A" is about 20kms 300° NW of Jonker-1. Given the distance I don't necessarily believe my previous coordinates! Anyway something one way or t'other will probably emerge on Upstream at some point.

[fraserdean] 29/8/2023 10:01

Any idea how far the Jonker appraisal is from the exploration well?

[fraserdean] 29/8/2023 10:00

Thanks so potentially Cullinan was the first failure

[xxnjr] 26/8/2023 08:08

Deepsea Bolster heading back from Cullinan to "Jonker-1A" which seems like a decent step out of that discovery. We can probably infer from time on well about 44 days that Cullinan wasn't in the Aptian-Albian.

Our rigs havn't budged. Nara 67 days and the actual 1-XST DST "from start of August" according to Patrick P.

[xxnjr] 21/8/2023 22:11

Upstream ".....State-owned oil company Namcor is a partner in all these discoveries and commissioned UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie to carry out an independent assessment of resources unearthed to date.

Shiwana Ndeunyema, Namcor’s acting managing director, outlined the sheer scale of the discoveries to date, which in the past 10 years have only been matched by Guyana.

“We’re looking at 11 billion barrels of reserves (oil in place),” he said, stressing: “These are the most conservative estimates.” Ndeunyema said that of these new discoveries, Venus is by far the largest, holding 5.1 billion barrels of in-place crude oil.

Shell’s recent Jonker find — an easterly extension of the Venus play — holds about 2.5 billion barrels of oil in-place resource, according to WoodMac estimates.

Fast-track, phased developments are being planned for Venus and Jonker, according to Ndeunyema’s presentation, while no developments concepts have been proposed as yet for Shell’s two other discoveries.....

.....WoodMac couched these volume estimates with numerous qualifiers, describing them as “preliminary” and “contingent221; oil-in-place resources, albeit with a 90% probability that the numbers are accurate.

Ndeunyema said: “Towards the end of September, we’ll have more explicit numbers on finalisation of the exploration campaigns.”

That seems to back up mutterings that the Venus play (Aptian-Albian) is believed to be more productive than some of Shell's stuff which is higher up (in the upper-cretaceous rather than Venus mid-cretaceous from memory).

[xxnjr] 21/8/2023 12:41

yeah but OTOH his recent efforts; Nigeria and African High Impact Offshore Exploration seem to be paying off. If it had been me I would have probably hung around 'til the Namib results were in! [unless he know's something we don't lol!]

[fraserdean] 20/8/2023 14:03

Interesting thanks $2.25 seems cheap although a lot of wells may be needed but even that would have a marked effect on the sp, have to say I'm slightly pleased Hill has moved on, think he was a bit old skool for the times...

[xxnjr] 17/8/2023 16:15

Snippet from Upstream "A potential value for Impact's rough 20% interest in two Venus blocks can perhaps be gleaned from a report issued in April this year by Barclays, part of which assessed the value of Africa Oil's indirect 6.2% stake in the two Venus blocks. Assuming proven resources of 3.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, a reserve valuation of $2.25 per boe and a 30% oil recovery rate, the bank estimated that the value of Africa Oil's interest is worth $556 million."

Well kind of. Assuming 3.6bn is the result of 30% RF then

3.6 x 0.062 = 225 mmbo

x $2.25 = US$506m

and 3.6bn bbls would be quite a large offshore field!

Although it could be bigger or nothing at all depending on the DST's etc etc

[Our current mcap seems to be about US$1bn]

[xxnjr] 15/8/2023 02:31

Seems like Deepsea Mira has drilled a sidetrack on Venus-1X which explains the one month delay in getting that DST underway? Venus-1A will then be DST'd.

Slightly odd that KH has left to enjoy his retirement a few weeks early and we don't get a results webcast! Any ideas?.....

[xxnjr] 12/8/2023 18:26

AOC 2Q Results may be out this week. Judging by this our total net production was down 7.8% over 1Q but still within the lower range of guidance.



Too early for news on Venus Test and don't make investment decisions on my maths!

[xxnjr] 03/8/2023 07:36

New interim GSA for Ghana gas at $2.90/mmbtu. It's peanuts but cash should drop into bottom line as about 100 mmscf gets sent to GNGC daily.

[xxnjr] 03/8/2023 00:50

Yeah, that Q had a slightly -ve slant but I'm reasonably optimistic the current Venus flow test results will be more than encouraging :)

[fraserdean] 02/8/2023 17:51

Thanks, also worth listening to the shell analayst call from last week, interesting question on the namibia subsurface

[xxnjr] 01/8/2023 13:02

Bp 2H Results....."now expects four major project start-ups during 2023, with Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) Phase 1 now expected to start-up during the first quarter of 2024."

probably explains why the FLNG vessel is in Singapore yard, with the GTA FPSO held in position by tug boats off the west coast of Mauritius ;-)

Also see

Namibia: From Shell's recent New York CMD "All wells drilled, also the production test, exhibited top 1/4tile properties".

[xxnjr] 27/7/2023 12:29

Great! Thanks, I missed Shell's call. All sounds encouraging for Namibia.

Meanwhile in SA the lights go out!

[fraserdean] 27/7/2023 12:21

Thanks, same with Shell, all positive but too early to tell on development etc etc

I think Luiperd and Brulpadda are very much on the backburner and tbh what's teh point in drilling in S African Orange Basin if there's no certainty you can develop it

[xxnjr] 27/7/2023 11:31

Nothing in Total's results release.

Webcast CEO A's to Q's

We'll be concentrating on Namibia exploration for now (as opposed to S. Afr).

The 2nd well there was successful.

The oil column was very big.

Test will commence next month so we may have an answer by September.

Think that was the gist but will have to listen again as audio quality wasn't that great noting comments above were broad brush stokes not detailed answers.

Sept 27th Total will have a CMD/strategy update in New York.

[fraserdean] 18/7/2023 11:53

Yep about time they had some good news

[fraserdean] 17/7/2023 16:45

Pleased for them feel Dhir was left with quite a big pile of poo to shovel away.