Kooth Share Discussion Threads

[gretagarb0] 15/1/2024 08:09

It is precisely that - a hybrid route. They have their team in the Uk and are building one in Penn - I think further afield ( as in other parts of the world - maybe states too?) they will look for partners to deliver the human interaction using their technology as the interface. I should imagine that is a big part of their strategy.

[rimau1] 11/1/2024 16:41

They have dealt with this before on investor calls as they get this question a lot. The CFO wants to be treated as a hybrid SAAS so not a typical pure SAAS, so i interpret that as a valuation metric of ARR x 3-4x rather than a SAAS of ARR 5-10x

[gretagarb0] 11/1/2024 16:37

I think they will try and go down the SaaS route.

[mighunter] 09/1/2024 11:37

Personally I'd taken that as a positive. Although the upside potential was also mentioned in the July RNS, the recent success/uptake in Pennsylvania and discussions with other states I thought had now steered them to mention the potential upside in the same breath today. Ie, possibly more self-confidence in it happening. Might be wrong but that was just my take.

[74tom] 09/1/2024 11:17

Today; "the contract has an expected value of $188m through to June 2027"

July; "The Contract has a minimum total contract value of $188m through to June 2027"

Why has minimum become expected? That's quite a significant shift in contract language...

[babbler] 09/1/2024 08:04

You value it on financial results and what that delivers value wise.Havebtinsee what that brings soon.

[pireric] 09/1/2024 07:27

How do you value a business like Kooth? Although the company (probably because of its VC) profiles itself as a SaaS company/software gross margins, it's definitely not that, and will never be valued as a tech business (unless they are successful in mass-licensing the software interface in overseas markets).

Without that second point, it's merely an app interface for a professional counselling business. Albeit it's maybe not full professional given the nature of the helpers they are recruiting (many young, and out of university). There are quite a few risks around that which probably deserve a discount.

Interested to hear any valuation framework thoughts anyone has as to how to value this business

Eric

[mighunter] 09/1/2024 07:04

Possible revenue upside to the Californian contract dependent on usage and development

[saucepan] 03/1/2024 16:43

Well-spotted; thanks.

[rimau1] 03/1/2024 16:29

Yes, noticed this was live on 1st Jan as promised in both Spanish and English and available to download. Promising....

[jurgenklopp] 03/1/2024 12:00

Soluna up and running in California.

[jurgenklopp] 03/1/2024 08:41

Been very quiet the last couple of months.
There should be a trading update in the next week or two.

[hatfullofsky] 19/10/2023 19:29

Nice read from Spire who acquired a mental health company today

[rimau1] 02/10/2023 16:09

Maybe they used "target" they did say "at least one" as far as i recall. The exciting news was they do expect to formalise the Penn contract from pilot to contract in Q4'23 as the state are still finalising budgets.

[acuere] 02/10/2023 14:43

Cheers rimau1, I’d clean forgotten about it. Re the new US state award in 24. Did they use the word expect? They must be very confident to say that rather than hope.

[saucepan] 02/10/2023 14:26

Thank you, rimau1. That is great feedback.

[rimau1] 02/10/2023 12:37

Excellent investor call this morning and they answered all my questions. Cali is on track for go-live. News on Penn expansion and potentially formal contract award expected in Q4. Laser focussed on Cali delivery, pilot in 2 communities is live, all 19 languages on track. They will then bring the Cali technology back to the UK to upgrade the UK tech which is great news. Expecting at least one new US state award in 2024 but no news on this in 2023. Hopefully Penn large contrsct award incoming.

[johnv] 11/9/2023 12:12

Watching these, 600k sells last Friday, going to soften the price?

[rimau1] 21/8/2023 15:33

Enough days have passed to now mention that KOO had a detailed write up and buy recommendation in SCSW Aug edition. Interviewed Tim Barker and concluded that the Cali contract execution is now past “peak risk” and Barker identifies North Carolina and NY State as the next opportunities. Barker is also working on the SaaS licensing model for Ex US ex UK geographies. Operational leverage kicking in from 2024, “shares are worth buying on quiet market days, next results in September”

[acuere] 01/8/2023 12:11

Yes it was very promising. If they get the California system right in numerous languages it augers well for the entry into the wider international market.

[rimau1] 01/8/2023 10:52

Excellent presentation yesterday. Kooth keep mentioning New York State and North Carolina so i really do think we are likely to be in active discussions with these states. The operational leverage will be remarkable as Cali and Penn are already operating under one system/model. CFO was quite excited about 2024 and upside risk to margins. I too am excited. The licensing rest of world model also offers a low margin high impact kicker and i wonder when we will get news.

[1c3479z] 25/7/2023 12:27

could add a diagnostics platform otherwise it's difficult to know the precise diagnosis and severity on first presentations, eg psyomics would be a good fit....

[nimbo1] 16/7/2023 18:04

thanks rimau, that bullish note confirms my own upside scenarios. now just have to see what transpires.