Kooth Share Discussion Threads

[spooky] 04/7/2023 09:24

timgaunt, you are joking of course.

[1c3479z] 04/7/2023 08:45

hope they can manage the recruitment, integration within the team and with other agencies and the quality control required for such a large contract; seems a tough ask also hope they've raised sufficient working capital for the time being.

[timgaunt] 04/7/2023 08:02

Great that they have confirmed this contract, but disappointed with the fundraising. They are raising at 10% below the current share price diluting shareholders more than necessary and providing a 10% bump for the directors and institutions who have been invited to participate. The directors have made circa 40k today. No small shareholders as per usual. They should have said 'not less than 300p'. I hope the institutions are tied in for a lengthy period.

[hatfullofsky] 04/7/2023 07:25

Question is, when do you add ? on a 35% rise or wait for the inevitable profit taking.

Long term this definitely has unicorn possibilities, PENN to follow then further states, also looking at Medicaid managed care plan providers.

[nimbo1] 04/7/2023 07:04

I'll be adding here - could be a unicorn if it was valued like a US start up and market cap still tiny

[hatfullofsky] 04/7/2023 06:28

Wow Wow Wow $188m over 4 years, £10m raise at 15% premium, we could be up a lot more by COB.

[bigbigdave] 04/7/2023 06:22

!FOLLOWFEED

[rimau1] 04/7/2023 06:13

Wow, that is way, way beyond my expectations. Smart to raise funds as buffer given the significant upfront opex and capex. Even better news; Kooth have also identified further opportunities in the US for expansion. I am guessing New York state. In earlier investor calls they downplayed further state expansion wanting to concentrate on Cali and Penn. Hold til you’re old.

[rimau1] 02/7/2023 21:10

Penn expansion after a successful pilot…
hxxps://www.the74million.org/article/report-thousands-of-pa-students-asked-for-mental-health-help-last-year/

[rimau1] 30/6/2023 16:05

Delayed reaction to yesterdays RNS or Cali contract about to drop on Monday? Exciting times.

[hatfullofsky] 22/6/2023 08:57

https://www.digitalhealth.net/2023/06/kooth-to-deliver-digital-mental-health-support-in-inverclyde/

[rimau1] 02/5/2023 09:09

Good spots acuere thanks for posting. Healthy recent drop on profit taking now this should be the next leg up, its mental health month in Pennsylvania in May so bodes well!

[acuere] 27/4/2023 09:48

And then a loose lipped sports agent telling us this



"Excited about this upcoming campaign with Lane Johnson of the Philadelphia Eagles and Kooth Digital Health (North America). Kooth, a leading digital mental health platform is on a mission to provide accessible and safe spaces for youth to achieve better mental health.

Starting next month, the campaign will go live to hundreds of thousands of youth across Pennsylvania, letting them know that Kooth is there for them when it matters, and that no issue is too big or too small."

Note the “HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS”

The pilot study is for 150,000 pupils. The 500 school district extension would cover 1.5m pupils. Kooth received $20 per head in the pilot study. At same rate that would translate to $30m p.a.
Fingers crossed they’ve pulled this off.

[acuere] 27/4/2023 09:39

And then the signing of an ambassador



“We are delighted that Lane is joining us as our new ambassador," said Kevin Winters, General Manager at Kooth. “At Kooth, we believe it is essential that young people have access to quality, stigma-free mental health services, so they are able to receive help quickly and when they need it most. Lane is admired by so many in the area, and for him to share our mission will go a long way to spreading the word about the service."

The partnership between Kooth and Lane Johnson represents an important step forward in breaking down stigma around mental health and providing more resources for young people in Pennsylvania. With his involvement in this initiative, Johnson hopes he can make an impact on the lives of many children facing similar issues he experienced himself.

[rimau1] 18/4/2023 12:47

They were very clear yesterday in both the Edison results call and the IM presentation. Priority is executing Cali with a 1 Jan 2024 go live. I am looking at existing next year at £40m ARR with no further contract wins so a valuation of £130m. Target price £4.00

[philly cheesesteak] 18/4/2023 12:14

The answer to Q12 in the Q&A from the Jan IMC presentation gives some clues I believe;

'winning Pennsylvania has put us on the map in terms of other states across the US and there are some pretty significant opportunities out there. The question for us really is do we go full speed ahead and tackle all of those opportunities or are we a bit more sequential about it, demonstrate our efficacy in Pennsylvania first, expand that contract, move to the next state. The former would accelerate the investment required but of course we believe that would lead to greater revenues. But the short answer is we are confident that we have sufficient runway here to get through to cash flow breakeven and profitability within 12 months.'

3 months on we know that they are taking on California at the same time as Pennsylvania and they are funded to do so via a combination of cash being advanced from California + own funds. They key question is how much will be advanced from California? If the contract is for $200m over 5 years will they pay year 1 up front? If yes then that changes everything from a cash point of view.

On the other states, I think NY, NC & VA are likely 6-12 months behind California & Pennsylvania. Kooth are likely to be involved in any tender process but aren't expecting any contract awards to take place pre California roll out. Indeed the app they are going to build for Cali could be perfectly timed to roll out in other states in 2024/25.

I'd also add that from my research that Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin & Maryland have all announced significant school based mental health funding in their 2024 budget plans, those 4 states cover a 27.8m population.

Eg. hxxps://eu.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/politics/2023/03/09/gov-evers-biennium-budget-would-put-500-million-in-mental-health/69977121007/

[acuere] 18/4/2023 11:28

Yes ‘twas good. I’m still unsure if they’re trying for these other States or focussing on getting Cali right. I’d be happy for them to do placing if it meant them being able to win other States.
California is biggest state and Penn comes in at 5, but the other 3 mentioned (NY,NC,Va) are all biggies as well.

1 California 38,915,693
2 Texas 30,500,280
3 Florida 22,661,577
4 New York 19,496,810
5 Pennsylvania 12,931,957
6 Illinois 12,477,595
7 Ohio 11,747,774
8 Georgia 11,037,723
9 North Carolina 10,832,061
10 Michigan 10,030,722
11 New Jersey 9,255,437
12 Virginia 8,709,873

The other thing I’d say is if it is even split between workstreams I would expect Koo servicing 13-25yo would command greater share. So possibly $200m over 5 years.

[rimau1] 17/4/2023 21:38

Good presentation today. Key takeaways for me were (1) In the US Kooth will only target the youth market. (2) executing Cali with a 1 Jan go-live is the key priority and they give the impression executing Cali before further US contract wins. (Cali was a 9 month discussion). (3) Cali adds 6m to our 9m customer base, 15 workstreams sharing a $5bn budget and Kooth will work in tandem with another provider who is covering infants 0-11. So contract size in my opinion could be simplistically estimated as $5bn/15/2 = $166m over x years. (4) CFO confident Penn will be renewed and expanded, Kooth to report back results to Penn in the next 6-8 weeks. (5) self funding for Cali roll out most likely I suspect if we snare another state we will have an equity raise (6) CEO sees Kooth as a global leader in digital youth mental health for the tiktok generation.

[mdchand] 17/4/2023 13:21

hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/edison-tv/kooth-executive-interview-2/32202/

[rimau1] 17/4/2023 08:14

Investor meet presentation this morning, hopefully some meet on the bones of the Cali contract, a Penn update and wider US update. Nice rise this morning in anticipation or maybe a cheeky RNS pre 11am!

[rimau1] 14/4/2023 05:54

$900m!
“Advocates for kids struggling with mental health care needs are urging state lawmakers and Gov. Kathy Hochul to ensure nearly $900 million in proposed spending will go toward increasing care access for children. The push comes as the state budget remains unresolved two weeks after it was initially due, and as the Hochul administration this spring is holding forums around New York to raise the issue of child mental health.”
hxxps://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2023/04/13/mental-health-advocates-want-direct-support-for-kids-

[1c3479z] 12/4/2023 19:05

you could listen to the summary podcast he does at the weekend...

[acuere] 12/4/2023 10:16

1c3479z,
Did Paul Scott pick up on the Pennsylvania pilot study update?

[rimau1] 12/4/2023 10:08

Thanks for the replies both. I had not seen the article on the Penn progress, i think we are guaranteed to evolve the pilot scheme into something larger now. I did know New York and NC are next on the hitlist. This is all very encouraging, each state that successfully rolls this out sets a precedent for other states to follow. Maybe we will get a first hand update at the upcoming investor meet presentation. Exciting times and nice to invest in something that provides tangible good.