Kooth Share Discussion Threads

[c3479z] 22/1/2023 22:23

seems a bit pricey, nevertheless, unless growth is rapid from here on in, which is a tough ask given the constrained NHS budget.

[rimau1] 22/1/2023 21:41

Therapists costing 3x more is solved simply by Koo charging 3x more FFS!!!! Koo also set up a local US mgt team it won’t be managed from the UK. Do you have any sensible questions?

[c3479z] 22/1/2023 18:13

seems a bit pricey unless they can profitably scale-up in the States, problem there is the therapists cost 3x the UK rate- are the therapists under contract only to Kooth and do not work anywhere else at all? Must therefore adopt a different model for the US and difficult to manage it from the UK for such a small company.

[rimau1] 22/1/2023 14:38

Last post from me here for a while. They appear (understandably given Kooth UK performance track record) very confident that the Penn pilot will be successful and lead to a larger longer contract which will in turn lead to further state contracts. However practitioners need to be licensed in the state that they operate in so it seems to me Koo will expand state by state rather than multi state roll outs which helps keep a lid on costs and retains focus but obviously takes longer. In terms of ex UK ex US expansion KOO will licence their technology out which is an excellent strategy IMO. Bolt on acquisitions unlikely although they are constantly being approached especially by distressed assets but the KOO model is primarily organic. The other snippet was that the existing cash runway extends for 2 years but in any case they expect to be cash flow positive within 3-6 months. Exciting times.

[rimau1] 19/1/2023 15:55

Excellent presentation this afternoon, the size of the prize in the US is mind boggling. $6bn of US state funding announced in 2022 alone and the US youth market is expected to be worth $26bn by 2027.

[rimau1] 19/1/2023 08:17

Excellent update. Very below the radar and the significant derating last year was simply due to the growth/tech stock association and unwarranted IMO. KOO are trading on 2 x historic ARR after stripping out net cash which is simply too cheap with sufficient balance sheet strength to find expansion plans. Plenty of clues in this update that the business is doing well; entrenched in the NHS, rolling out in Scotland, interestingly now providing an A&E emergency response to alleviate pressure on A&E and most importantly the US rollout which is historically the amber flag for me (as few businesses succeed in entry)is progressing well. Penn is bedding in and should result in further contract awards. Patience required but this is a high conviction long term hold for me.

[hybrasil] 22/10/2022 07:01

And it keeps falling

[hybrasil] 18/9/2022 07:00

This is still valued at £38m.
Strip out the £8m of cash - that’s £30m
FFS. in its last set of results it only turned over £16m - if my memory is right.

It is a screaming sell. Worth about 20p. Maximum

[rimau1] 26/7/2022 14:56

Hard to value hybrasil which is why i am on the sidelines. Just watching with interest as previously invested at IPO.
Agree hard to raise cash my point was they don’t need to and it was a concern of mine with the US expansion but its all looking self funding for now. Last year 2xARR would be cheap, in 2022-23 i have no idea what is cheap anymore!

[hybrasil] 26/7/2022 12:34

Rimau

It’s nigh on impossible to raise equity in the current market.

Agree increase in cash a good sign but £40m mcap??

[rimau1] 26/7/2022 06:43

Given the price action over the past 6 months i was expecting a nasty surprise in the TU but there were only 2 amber flags for me (1) a slow down in new business spending decisions with the reorganisation of the NHS regional structures (2) no mention of ARR which is a key metric for Kooth. I was hoping this would continue to track up towards £20m. The good news; Net cash was up (i didn’t expect that) and no sign of an equity raise. Of course they will be capex’ing everything so its not capital light but the balance sheet should be sufficient for the existing growth plans.

[hybrasil] 20/7/2022 14:04

Worth at most half the current share price. I’d say it’s pass the parcel time

[hybrasil] 12/7/2022 09:45

This in my view is massively overvalued. I think its a screaming short. Its a tech share set up by software people. Compare its number to for instance totally.

The turnover to market cap ratio is daft in this market.

[markr5] 05/4/2022 14:17

Hi rimau1 i am considering buying in now. As you say, it is hard to value. I will be staying in for the long haul though, as i believe that the need for mental health support will only increase. We are living in a time of constant emergencies and anxiety, depression and confusion will only increase. The trend of everything being online will most likely continue also. This seems to marry the two together. I have no idea if this particular company will succeed, but it feels good to invest in this sector. The only other company that i know of in the mental health sector, and it is quite different is COG and the share price has shot back up towards all time highs. I prefer buying low. Kooth do appear to have conviction with their growth. I think this is a good long-term buy and hold. There appears very little info on it. I saw Midas tipped it back in January when the share price was £3.19

[rimau1] 28/3/2022 13:58

I’ve taken some more at £2.38, results this week could halt the slide. Hard to value but i just have a very deep conviction in this structural growth play, what other stock is out there to invest in if you want to play the Mental Health sector? Hoping for an update on US expansion which could be a catalyst. I will keep talking to myself……

[rimau1] 16/3/2022 09:13

Great unexpected update. Forward looking ARR should be approaching £18m now so this is looking cheap. To the extent that they can KOO have a monopoly in the UK as they cover c.90% of the young adult market so extending contracts to Adults with the existing customers (NHS trusts) should be almost guaranteed. Lucrative Corporate market excites me. Expansion into the US makes me a little nervous as that has gone quiet since the US hire. Expect an update on US progress before results in Q2.

[rimau1] 19/1/2022 11:07

To be fair I only sourced a TU today from the midas report. Last year was the 21 Jan i think so it could land anytime this month.

[jeanesy] 19/1/2022 08:03

no trading update ?

[rimau1] 18/1/2022 16:52

Trading update Wednesday. Looking for £17m revenues and breaking even. More importantly i want to see traction in the lucrative corporate space and an update on US expansion plans.