Kinovo Share Discussion Threads

[danboris2] 30/11/2022 13:03

I just bought 10k of what was sold. Doesn't make sense for the price to fall on the back of the results. Strange market

[qs99] 30/11/2022 12:39

Down 10% on small volume on the back of cracking results. PIs do we think?

cmon Kinovo get your IR act together!

[qs99] 29/11/2022 13:58

agreed on all the posts above and glad I took a whirl just above 10p.....their IR team need to get to work.....smaller sellers may offload, but how Wrong could they be on seeing out old contracts? have asserted the 4.3m now a few times, hopefully a few meaningful new wins on underlying business can help reassure markets against 10-20% overruns on old contract risk. Let's see

[dope007] 29/11/2022 09:02

dyor2 I agree 100%. It is that uncertainty in larger investors minds that allows private investors to buy at a discounted price today

[nico115] 28/11/2022 22:54

Well done Sooty for buying back in .Dyor you are the best poster here and provided unbelievable support and belief at the lows for which I'm indebted to you and appreciate very much .Agreed that we are ripe for a take over mid 2023 as central costs will also be saved.80p is my guesstimate ..mkt cap of 50m

[dyor2] 28/11/2022 18:06

So I think the issue here is that it will take some time to regain investors’ trust in the company following the DCB debacle. In particular, potential investors may be sceptical of Kinovo’s £4.3m estimate of the cost to complete the remaining DCB construction contracts. There are 9 such contracts, work has re-started on 2, 3 are due to recommence in January 2023 and discussions “are at an advanced stage” on the others. I’ve no particular reason to doubt Kinovo’s estimates, but I can see that new investors might want the completion process to be further along before they take the £4.3m figure at face value!

I think any potential bidders might also want to wait to see how the DCB project completions go. But by this time next year the greater part of completion works on these contracts should have been done, and at that stage (assuming the £4.3m estimate proves broadly correct) I would expect the shares to be much higher. Kinovo seems on track to make at least £5m operating profit in the year to March 23, and probably £6m in 2023/4. The key to valuing the business to me is its very attractive rate of cash generation, because Kinovo has consistently turned 100% or more of operating profit into cash. It currently has virtually no net debt, and whilst most of the cash generated by the core business over the next twelve months will be swallowed up in completing the DCB contracts, looking ahead to a year’s time hopefully by that time we’ll have a “clean” business generating £6m of annual profit and £6m plus in annual cash, with no debt and a huge forward order book, operating in a growth market. What might that be worth? At the current 36p share price Kinovo is valued at £22m. A bid at anywhere near that price seems like a no brainer. For example a 50p a share bid would cost £31m, and with £6m+ of annual cash generation the cash return to a bidder would be almost 20% p.a.! My best guess is that a bid this time next year would have to be 70p+ to have any hope of success, though of course it depends on the attitude of Tipacs2, who have 26% of the business. It could be substantially more.

So in sum, I suspect it will take time to regain investor confidence but I’m happy to wait with my 1% or so because there looks to be very substantial upside from here.

[qs99] 28/11/2022 17:05

Agreed Dope007

that look forward revenue number is really valuable IMO.....DYOR

[dope007] 28/11/2022 11:14

Starting to buy back in now after those results. Good long term hold now

[qs99] 28/11/2022 09:31

I agree, maybe a few sellers still out there, OR need the IR team to up their game (as ever), but PE houses would love this sort of valuation and forward revenue visibility IMO! DYOR

[fozzie] 28/11/2022 09:05

Not quite what I was expecting so far.

[nico115] 28/11/2022 08:57

Revenues are 4 x market cap !!

[nico115] 28/11/2022 08:33

Probably make 5.5m pounds and mkt cap is 22m !! Lol wrong price

[nico115] 28/11/2022 08:32

It has bit a pe of 4 is ridiculous 8 is more like it

[patient fox] 28/11/2022 08:21

The market has trust issues with the company.

[nico115] 28/11/2022 08:02

If the market doesn't rerate this then another company will.It's a sitting duck with the explosive growth we are seeing.

[sos100] 28/11/2022 07:55

really weird how the uk market values certain shares....this is a profitable company , virtually no debt, the revenues are same as market cap!

[qs99] 28/11/2022 07:37

indeed

great long term outlook and order book, nearly debt free, should IMO do materially North of £5.3m EBITDA in full year and more to play for.

Nicely undervalued and yield shouldn't be too far off either

DYOR

[nico115] 28/11/2022 07:23

That's a fantastic half year.

[nico115] 20/11/2022 12:34

Any forecasts for next Monday ?

[qs99] 18/11/2022 12:25

And chuff all stock around DYOR

[qs99] 18/11/2022 12:20

Lovely tick up 2 weeks ahead of the results....DYOR

[qs99] 15/11/2022 10:20

Results due soon, will be interesting to see if any tick up in share price ahead of them

[qs99] 27/10/2022 08:11

Any views on recent weakness? Just PI selling?

[qs99] 21/10/2022 07:59

low volume sell off yesterday.....need trading update in November Me thinks to move things along DYOR