Kier Share Discussion Threads

[stdyeddy] 09/2/2024 09:51

Fitch Publishes Kier Group Plc First-Time IDR at 'BB+'; Outlook Stable
Mon 05 Feb, 2024 - 07:54 ET

Fitch Ratings - London - 05 Feb 2024: Fitch Ratings has published Kier Group Plc's (Kier) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BB+'. The Outlook is Stable. Fitch has also published the group's proposed GBP250 million senior unsecured notes an instrument rating of 'BB+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'.

[stdyeddy] 09/2/2024 09:39

Very positive reaction from the market on the senior debt pricing. Maybe not as good as a blue-chip but Fitch gives Kier a BB+ rating. If they issue the whole offering -- there's no prospectus currently and just notices saying there's no obligation for one -- but at 9% this would add £12.5m to Kier's current finance costs annually, except that they've also paid off £100m recently (unspecified which debt) so maybe overall it adds about £7m or £8m to financing. Very useful working capital for an expanding order book and it gives certainty on the replacement for debt arrangements that expire next year.

[richsawko] 09/2/2024 09:32

Markets like the offering. This is going a lot higher with the confirmed order book and margins now being achieved

[dht4] 09/2/2024 03:36

9% of £250m < 3.5% of £4,000m?
4 weeks to dividend announcement.
3x dividend cover.

[bathboy2] 09/2/2024 01:06

RNS yesterday , 250mn senior notes at 9%, due 2029, ouch!!

[xamf] 08/2/2024 21:10

I didn't realise I'd filtered Bathboy before as I can't see his posts. He must be pretty bad for myself to have filtered him. Just filter and focus on your research. They're not worth responding to.

[bathboy2] 08/2/2024 00:54

You really should double check what say , I didn't state that the banks etc wouldn't lend to Kier , I said construction in general , and expect rates to be punitive, because of the failures of 100mn+ turnover companies, some 500mn , banks don't like getting hurt , so they then take it out on the rest of the sector, expected rates could be 6% + , but if it gets as high as 10% , it is really going to hurt the bottom line of a 3% gross margin company before taxes, current interest rates being offered for some on smaller loans , around 4% over 3 to 5 years , for an idea of perspective

[stdyeddy] 07/2/2024 23:48

The usual garbage from you.
No large construction companies have failed recently. Small ones fail all the time.

And you're saying that banks will 'not want to lend' to Kier? That's funny, because you've spent a couple of years telling us that banks are lending almost a billion to Kier. So now that the company is back on its feet and has net cash and is about to announce a dividend, suddenly banks don't want to lend? Yeah, ok.

Rates will be 'punitive' will they? What would that be then? Funny how the share price is unmoved by the news. Got any thoughts on how it'll react to Kier re-joining the FTSE250?

Looks like you were completely wrong about Kier going broke. Dividend announcement next month.

[marksp2011] 06/2/2024 13:18

So BT Bonds priced at 8%

Kier bonds to price at 6%

Really?

[bathboy2] 06/2/2024 04:15

So by refinancing debt and having to repay it , your saying by calling it a bond , it isn't debt, LOL , best you do some homework

[bathboy2] 05/2/2024 18:17

Crikey , is this of the 550mn packaged debt , that some conveniently forget about , because it doesn't fit their rhetoric, suddenly coming to the front , why would they want to be 6% or more, even considerably more than they have paying , should be able to get at around 4% if truly turned around, and a low risk??! , shouldn't be paying a dividend until all debt paid off IMO

[stdyeddy] 05/2/2024 17:08

New bond issue announced today to replace expiring debt. The interest rate will be a reflection on risk perception from the market for Kier. I hope they can achieve something around 6%. That might be wishful thinking, but let's see.

[stdyeddy] 05/2/2024 17:05

So pleasant to be in a troll-free zone for all this time. Doubtless they are muttering to themselves under a dank stone and cursing the buoyant shareprice here. Still a long way to go though. My guess is that there will be sustained run up to the FTSE250 re-shuffle, perhaps starting towards the middle or later part of this month. Then the audited H1 results and dividend announcement will come in March and that should provide a further lift.

[stdyeddy] 26/1/2024 16:30

A £4m buy, judging by the trade price, seems to have gone through at 15.53 today. Strong interest in Kier from a big buyer.

[stdyeddy] 22/1/2024 20:21

Excellent point -- Kier is positioned today for an automatic entry to the FTSE250 and will be immediately bought by the index-tracker funds. Next revision is March.

Here's the current list. Today's market cap at 129p is £554m and puts it right under Currys, ranked 225th in the FTSE 250. These prices can be a few days out of date but still give a very rough picture on the rankings. My guess is that by the time we get to March, Kier will be at 130p at the very least, and more likely much better.

It's been a few years since Kier was on the indexes -- I'm looking fwd to the shares rejoining and gaining new visibility.

[rolo7] 22/1/2024 19:11

Now when a fste 250 company delists due to it being taken over but at this level will go into f250 in march

[takeapunt1] 22/1/2024 16:58

At what level would Kier re-join the FTSE 250?

[itisonlymoney] 22/1/2024 16:12

Continuing rise. rerating is in progress. good to see it.

[nfs] 20/1/2024 13:33

But that's on statutory earnings not adjusted I'm sure

[nfs] 20/1/2024 13:24

I watched the year end results webcastDividends will be 3* covered, so 33%

[stdyeddy] 19/1/2024 16:11

It looks as though the market here is pausing for breath. Galliford and Costain have both posted similarly positive updates recently while retailers are all struggling. I suspect (and hope) that the market will begin to re-evaluate construction -- the facts here will ultimately overcome scepticism. Kier is generating a lot of cash and pretty soon it's going to present undeniably great value.

In the last rights issue prospectus, Davies promised investors that Kier would pay out one third of profits as dividends (or was it 30%?). The business seems to be reliably producing a 3.5% margin or better (judging by the cash generation -- the numbers in March will hopefully confirm) and turnover looks like it will be around £4bn or better. Conversion to cash is expected to be 90% now that 'adjustments' for 'restructuring' are allegedly over, so my back-of-a-fag-packet calculation is that profits could be around £125m and cash at £110m.

If -- and I think this is a moderate-sized 'if' -- but if Davies and Kesterton leap straight into this pay-out program with the half-year divi at say one third of the total, the March announcement could offer £12m for the first half (2.6p?) and maybe £24m for the full-year, making £36m in total. That would be a 6.5% return on today's shareprice. That is significantly better than current interest rates for money in the bank and the share is in a well-established uptrend -- hence my expectation that the share price is going to go a lot higher from here.

[stdyeddy] 19/1/2024 15:48

Indeed wolly has vanished. He was posting here as his idiot self and 'bathboy' but has slunk away to focus on SFOR apparently, where he is seeking attention from unhappy shareholders AFTER the shares have fallen 95% (same as he did here) pretending that he knows best. His ability to be consistently wrong makes me think about taking a look at SFOR, but since it's a marketing business and that entire industry is built on bullsh1t, I'm waiting for a while and won't be sorry if I miss its recovery.

[nomdeplume] 19/1/2024 12:05

Steady, rumours of my demise have been greatly exaggerated!I just got fed up arguing with that wally who currently seems to have vanished,

[stdyeddy] 19/1/2024 08:11

nom!!! You are still alive!

Yes, it has been a long wait. But that wasn't all Kier's fault. In 2019 you said it would take two years, and you would've been right if we hadn't had a major European war and a global pandemic.

Assuming we have no more cataclysms, I think the trajectory is determinedly upward now. Kier is on rails. Literally, since Buckingham's demise. Share price should double from here fairly quickly this year once the interim and full year dividends are announced, so by September at least. Three pounds at some point.