Kier Share Discussion Threads

[bathboy2] 16/7/2021 05:48

Biggest difference between costain/galliford, and kier is that they appear to be in a full cash positive position, similar size turnover. Kier seeing how the cash raise went, it was unfortunate that they didn't aim higher. Kier update this week, was at best vague, because the ultimate debt level is still not stated, even with the cash raise/KL sale,

[stdyeddy] 15/7/2021 22:30

Yesterday sicko seemed very interested in Galliford and Costain's results as a pointer to the numbers for Kier. Today you seem a lot less interested sicko. Could it be because the story doesn't support your gloom-and-doom predictions?

GALLIFORD TRY DUCKS IMPACT OF MATERIALS SHORTAGES AND PRICE HIKES.
Galliford Try said it has so far managed to avoid adverse impacts from the present wave of materials shortages and inflation in an upbeat end-of-year trading update this morning.

[dasty1] 15/7/2021 18:53

Rayfenn, you do a lot of stuffing. You in the chicken business?

[rayfenn] 15/7/2021 16:22

I do know Sparty.

He is a pensioner from Cornwall so get stuffed

[itisonlymoney] 15/7/2021 16:16

Why do you spend all day posting childish rants rayfenn about someone you don't know on an investor site?

[itisonlymoney] 15/7/2021 15:19

zicopele have you ever said anything positive about kier apart from "I positively hate kier"?

[itisonlymoney] 15/7/2021 15:13

That's good cos this one's £42m.

hxxps://www.kier.co.uk/media/news-releases/kier-starts-on-site-to-deliver-42m-transformation-project-of-paisley-museum/

This one's £50m.
hxxps://www.railtechnologymagazine.com/articles/major-early-works-contract-awarded-hs2

And this one's £1bn, between four firms.
hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2021/07/09/isg-kier-laing-orourke-and-wates-secure-1bn-prisons-deal/

[zicopele] 15/7/2021 14:21

You have also overstated cash received for sale of KL. They netted £90m after £10m pension contribution and sale costs.

Disagree that ten small jobs of £10m has a lower risk profile than one large job of £100m.

[bathboy2] 15/7/2021 13:34

It was early when I read, so see it was April, even so has hmrc been paid back??

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/7/2021 12:50

Interesting Leon - and more than happy to discuss. I just don't want to upset too many people as has happened before, particularly when Costain is mentioned. They (Costain) haven't told us much today either, which is irritating.

I do accept that the trade finance number is a grey area - for me it is simply that without it the number would be in net debt. But it's true that you can say that about trade payables - so where do you draw the line? They have said they are ceasing this - so it will not be an issue in future.

On the cash generation for the past 6 months, I do think I am right in principle - if they have the same level of debt for a six month average compared with the previous year, and the most recent average includes an element for the reduction of some £330m for a limited period, then the business must have consumed cash. It may be a timing thing, or it may be linked to the £50m delayed tax being paid, or it may underlying - we don't know.

Maybe best to wait until the numbers to see more clearly with the results.

[petersw1] 15/7/2021 12:18

Seems he gets pretty confused when he tries.

[sparty1] 15/7/2021 11:50

peters..I`m just surprised he can read!


Leon, do not encourage him..We already have War and peace in three volumes and the cost shareprice is circa 58.. Stagnant at best.


Forks ...nice one!

[leonthelion] 15/7/2021 11:45

imastu, trade finance of 110? Kier's total trade payables number last reported is £255.8m including the infamous KEPS scheme but if KEPS trade finance wasn't available, many, perhaps most, and possibly all of those suppliers would simply be in the trade payables line. Strangely enough, Costain's 2020 trade payables is almost identical at £256m on almost a quarter of the turnover, although I am not arguing with your thesis that Costain is good value. There is also the smaller argument that KEPS doesn't incur financing cost for Kier, so arguably not the same kind of debt as financing debt, but it is a creative scheme from the previous management so I'm not saying it shouldn't go. It is a liability like many other items, but it is also balanced by trade receivables. You can't categorise supplier outgoings as debt without also discussing trade incoming. They are two sides of the same coin, so it's not correct to say one is debt and the incoming can be ignored.

Whether Costain is better value than Kier depends on other factors too like reach into the market and competitive advantage, and that is one of Kier's strengths. Look at the number of frameworks and Kier's customer base. It is huge. Also, Kier has taken the 'low risk' strategy of delivering hundreds of low value projects with low impact from any that go wrong. Costain's roads disaster shows a different level of risk exposure, and that might be one of the things reducing investor appetite for a business with a better balance sheet (currently). Also there is the little matter of today's update showing declining numbers on the few metrics discussed. I'm sure Costain will come good eventually - contract wins for the year put Costain only a few places behind Kier, so possible big growth is on the horizon.

Also you dismiss Kier's last six months of earnings, stated as 3% margin on almost £3.5bn turnover and say 'call it zero'. I say, call it £50m paying off the o/s tax. To my mind, with supplier debt balanced by incoming revenue, Kier's explicit debt position is at least £160m better than your estimate.

[petersw1] 15/7/2021 11:33

Bathboy, you're reading an article from 21st April.

[zicopele] 15/7/2021 10:59

I thought Sparty told us that debt is being redefined.

Bet the finance directors of construction companies do not agree.

Costain and Galiford are better value than Kier. And yet the market thinks different.


That profit you use for generating a multiple has not been achieved by Kier.

[bathboy2] 15/7/2021 10:23

In to Google kier results 2021, scroll down, building magazine, kier focus

[zicopele] 15/7/2021 09:52

Kier have never stated that debt to HMRC has been repaid. None of the other major construction companies deferred payroll taxes.

Amount raised was circa £320m after expenses. Kier is still in debt but we will have to wait until results to find out just how much.

[stdyeddy] 15/7/2021 09:38

wolly/bathboy attempting to spread misinformation. Kier has now paid back it's deferred tax; the same deferment that practically all the construction firms took to help with anticipated covid costs. The more interesting story here is that Kier has managed to achieve almost 3% margin on £3.4bn turnover and that both debt (which is now very small due to £350m incoming, mostly in the last fortnight of the year) and profits are ahead of Davies's cautious outlook.