Just on the topic of where Kier could be in a couple of years if it clears the remaining debts and had a big net cash position, what do you notice about the dividend on Morgan Sindalls latest report?Earnings per share - adjusted1278.8pPeriod end net cash£492mTotal dividend per share131.5p |
Yeah property arm has big potential if they start hitting the 15% ROCE on 190 million of capital. They booked 1 million profit this half from property which suggest big earnings have to come in the next results. Just to ponder regards future payouts just look at how much cash the business has generated in the last few years to pay down the debt. The most interesting thing to watch now is how quick the cash builds on the balance sheet and how quickly a significant portion of the current share price becomes covered by cash. I am curious to know in the next set of results if a monthly net cash position means the RCF facility of 150 million can be fully closed for example. Then getting rid of the 9% coupon on the 250 million bonds would be saving more than current dividend alone. |
 I agree with itsonly. 6p is my expectation. I doubt very much Kier will pay out 50% of earnings. That's one of the things that got them into so much trouble seven years ago, along with a couple of other management issues. They're cautious now. Ultra-cautious I'd say. Davies is the 'safe pair of hands' that's righted the ship and it's taken a long while to get there. No way will he be jeopardising that with a payout at 2x cover.
However, the property arm has the potential to make a big contribution, and Tempsford Hall is there in the background as one of Kier's 'property investments'. Anything could happen with Tempsford -- they could sell it and immediately bank anything from £70 to £90m but I think they'll develop the site as housing. How often does a developer get handed an opportunity like a 'new town' where they've got the biggest piece of land in that new town and it cost them mere shillings back in the days of typewriters and vinyl records?
The point I'm coming to is that the property arm might end up booking big profits that could get paid out as a special dividend, but that is speculating some way into the future. Let's keep it real and see what numbers we get in July. I've got a feeling that even business as usual is going to give Kier something like £140m in profit. The falling debt usage is going to have a big impact on the bottom line as you've already pointed out clyde. The 3x cover dividend could end up being an 8% return on its own, plus we've got 3% in effect through the share buyback. |
Have a look over the presentations again. 5p is the minimum it will be imo. The dividend is about to jump rapidly as earnings increase and the cover drops to 3x which even then is well covered. No reason why it can not go to 2x covered once substantial cash is built up and you could be looking at 15p dividend a year on 30p adjusted earnings. That's why this price is a steal. |
Steady build here.I'm settling in! |
a 5p announcement will really get the share price going. i'll be delighted if you're right. |
No I am expecting Kier to report earnings for the year of at least 21p, hopefully higher. They have repeatedly stated now the dividend will move to 3x covered from 4x. That means 7p at least in dividends. 2p has already been declared leaving at least 5p to be paid final. |
btw, in the interim statement they said "Proposed 20% increase to interim dividend to 2.00p, representing a cover of c.3.5x"
anyway, that's all gravy as far as i'm concerned. 4.31% rise today is very nice. let's hope we ahve a few days like this strung together to get back to 150p and then on to where this shld be at £2 plus. |
are you saying it cld be less than 6p? it's kier's practice to pay out a third for the interim and two thirds for the final. that's how i'm working it out as 6p total. |
Have a look back at the presentation the dividend will move to be covered 3x by earnings. |
kier's divi practice is that the interim is half the final, or to put it another way, a third of the total. so the total divi for this yr will be 6p as long as nothing weird happens. at 130p that's 4.6% return. twice what some of kier's competitor's are paying.
the ut today was a big one at a fifth of the total trades today with a 130.6 price. that looks like a lot of ppl looking for an opportunity to buy in and taking the high price for the day rather than wait for tomorrow. rising volume and rising price - strong buy signal.
now that the worries about the chancellor's statement are out of the way, this should rise strongly.. |
We should fly from here with the buy back pushing it higher each day. Everyone that wanted out probably capitulated the last week or so. Everyone else is here to double their money. The current interim dividend was 3.5x covered. Kier have stated they will pay out at 3x coverage, so the final dividend could be closer to 6p than 4p. They should be hitting a monthly net cash position any day now so they can dial up the shareholder returns. |
melting up. very few sellers. at some point ppl will cotton on that the final divi from kier is twice the interim payout. 5% divi return, fwd p/e of around 5 and half the sector avg. profits up, revenue up, net cash growing, debt reducing. unfathomable price. also more than 3% of the shares being bought back. if that orange bstrd beyond the waves can stop creating panic (unlikely) and let the markt find its feet again, this should head up steeply. shld be at least £2. maybe we have to wait for the july full yr update for the facts to be blindingly obvious. |
Nice to see the graph get a wiggle on! Looks like the worm has turned. We hope! |
Reeves's spring statement is over. Turns out the govt isn't broke and will continue to build. £600m to be invested in construction trades training to bring 60,000 new workers into the workforce (10 new technical colleges). Lots of money being thrown at defence and infrastructure. |
Afternoon could see it going higher |
Things are looking really good. 128p to buy. We have cleared all the sellers and the buy back is now pushing it higher. The best part is there is plenty more buybacks and bigger dividends coming our way in the future. |
79k bought yesterday.
There were two identical c600k sells registered at same time. suspect duplicates or one actually cancelled the other. |
Was just looking over some stuff, and with today's news Morgan Sindall are ahead of broker expectations, does anyone know what the future broker earnings projections are for Kier? |
Yeah volume up big, be interesting to see how the use it for the buy back if they do. |
A few chunky trades gone through, guess we may still see a holding notification at some stage |
Just seen this post. To be fair I do not think the management need to comment in this instance. It has been a crazy drop that has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. Hopefully the buy back can take advantage of it. I do not have any more funds to buy more sadly. Everything is pointing to the next results being good as the property investment sales should appear that did not make the cut for the last results. My only concern is with the price down here someone uses the current 20 percent pull back to pitch and opportunistic bid for the company which they will claim represents great value and a 30% premium to the current price. |
thames crossing going ahead.
kier's not involved but greenlight for this project shows the govt's intent. build, build, build. |
markI have been. Good luck. |
Make the most of it |
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