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TWOD Taylor Woodrow

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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Taylor Woodrow LSE:TWOD London Ordinary Share GB000878230 ORD 25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 0.00 -
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
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- 0 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
11/7/200817:04TWOD449
21/2/200709:15TWOD in february64
12/9/200620:12TAYLOR WOODROW - THE FACTS51
04/8/200609:02when is a trading statement notified in advance of disclosure?10
04/8/200609:01TaylorWd headed to 180P, lower?22

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Posted at 04/7/2007 12:12 by shakeb
Markpun why are you not posting on the TW. board. I do not know anything
about Wimpey but TWOD I am very familiar with.

Can you pls advise on the share price. I am wondering how they arrived at
the current range. What price would you consider cheap if I may ask.
I am not sure if to follow the Wimpey historical price.

Thanks.
Posted at 22/6/2007 16:24 by markpun
One Reason U.S. Real Estate Can't Crash
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
June 22, 2007

Greetings from Sligo, Ireland...

County Sligo is as close to the middle-of-nowhere as you can get.

We've been here in Sligo (pronounced "sly-go") for days now, and we can't much figure out what people do here.

It's your basic, regular town. Yet the average asking price for a home here in Sligo is 354,767 euros according to the May 2007 issue of Business Sligo magazine. At current exchange rates, that's an astounding US$475,368.

I couldn't believe it.

This trip was yet another reminder to me that U.S. real estate isn't that expensive when you compare it to real estate around the world.

In the United States, the median price of an existing home is US$220,900, less than half the average asking price in middle-of-nowhere Ireland.

This U.S. median price, of course, includes the expensive places – New York and California. If you look at just the Southeast, even including Florida, the median home price drops to only $181,100.

If you like rain, cold, and not a whole lot going on, Sligo is a fine place. I actually like visiting here. We've been lucky. It hasn't been as cold or rainy as it should be this time of year. But I'd much rather live in Florida. Amazingly, you can live in Florida for half the money you need in Sligo.

It's not just Sligo...

Irish house prices are up 251% since 1997, according to the latest issue of The Economist. Home prices from Britain to South Africa are up by hundreds of percent. Yet the same magazine says U.S. home prices are up by only 103% in the same amount of time.

Said another way: Sure, U.S. home prices have risen in the last 10 years, but not nearly as much as many other countries. Also, I believe that U.S. home prices were starting from a low base... they had room to rise.

Foreigners now think that U.S. real estate is dirt-cheap.

Tom Dyson is from London. He moved to Florida to co-write DailyWealth with me. He can't believe you can buy a three-bedroom, two-bath house a half-mile from the beach for less than $250,000. But dozens of them are available right now. "You can hardly buy a closet in London for that price," Tom says.

U.S. real estate is always in demand by foreigners. For many, it's a nice way to get some assets out of their own country and own something "real." If you doubt me, visit Miami...

This trip to Ireland has been a good reminder to me... there's an underpinning to Florida real estate that won't let it crash dramatically. And that's buying by foreigners. Europeans buy in Florida because the weather is nice and real estate is cheap. Latinos buy to get money out of their own countries. I doubt either of these buyers will go away anytime soon.

It may take years to "burn off" the supply of homes available for sale on the market now. So we may not see much price appreciation for a while. But I don't think we'll see a dramatic fall in prices either.

Yes, U.S. home prices have run up in recent years. But when you get out and see the world, you find that U.S. real estate is simply not that expensive for what you get.

The fears of a housing crash nationwide are overblown.

Good investing,

Steve
Posted at 25/5/2007 02:17 by spob
New home prices plunge, sales soar

Sharpest decline in price of new homes since 1970 spurs stronger than expected sales in April.

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
May 24 2007: 11:57 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A big drop in the price of the typical new home sold in April spurred much better-than-expected sales, according to the latest government reading on the battered real estate and home building market released Thursday.

New homes sold at an annual pace of 981,000 in April, up 16.2 percent from the revised 844,000 pace in March. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast an 860,000 rate in April.

The price of a typical new home sold in April was off more than 10 percent from a year earlier.

The gain in sales compared to March is the biggest jump in 14 years. But even with the April spike factored in, April sales came in 10.6 percent below year-earlier levels.

The median price of a new home sold in April plunged 10.9 percent from a year earlier to $229,100. The new price reading was also down 11.1 percent from the March reading.

It was the sharpest year-over-year drop in median new home prices since December 1970 and the biggest month-to-month drop on record.

Paul Kasriel, chief economist with Northern Trust in Chicago, equated the strong sales to the strategy of the Detroit automakers, who cut prices and offer other sales incentives to counteract weak demand for their cars and trucks, sometimes taking a loss on the sales.

"The builders are clearing out the merchandise," he said. "They're doing a Detroit here. When you have excess supply, the quickest way to move supply back into balance with demand is to cut the price, and finally they're doing that. I would not say this is the bottom of the housing recession."

Fastest and slowest growing home markets
Kasriel pointed out that the median number of months it takes builders to sell a completed home has risen every month for the past seven. It now stands at 6 months, the longest time it takes them to move a completed home since 1993, and it's almost double the 3.4 months it took them to sell a home as recently as September.

However, the faster sales pace in April helped take the estimated months' supply of homes on the market down to 6.5 months from 8.1 months in the March report.

The median price is the point at which half the homes sell for more, and half sell for less. The average price, which is generally higher than median prices due to the impact of high-priced homes, was also lower, although the drop was not quite as sharp. It fell 3.6 percent from year-ago levels, the biggest drop in six years.

Economist Robert Brusca of FAO Economics said the much sharper decrease in median price than average price shows that the biggest declines are taking place in the less expensive part of the market.

"That may have something to do with subprime problems," he said, referring to the problems with the mortgages written to buyers with less than top credit ratings. "Clearly, builders have been cutting prices and just as clearly, the strategy has been working."

Adding to a home's curb appeal
But unlike Kasriel, Brusca said he believes the spike in sales brought on by the price cuts is important, and it could be a sign that the battered housing sector could turn around sooner than later.

"If we look at trends in average new home prices around the time of the last recession, we see that builder capitulation on prices was the catalyst for ending the weakness in the sector," he said. "The low prices jump start demand and get some inventory off homebuilder's hands giving the market a push."

The weakness in pricing has been seen since last year. Many builders have been reporting that they were cutting prices.

The prices being quoted in the Census Bureau report may actually be underestimating that price weakness, since three out of four builders responding to their trade group's survey report offering incentives such a covering closing costs and offering extras in the homes at no charge in order to maintain sales in the weak market.

The downturn in new home sales and home building has hammered results at the nation's largest builders, which are reporting losses, lowered earnings guidance, coupled with rising cancellation rates from buyers and charges for walking away from options they have on some land.

Thursday, luxury home builder Toll Brothers (Charts, Fortune 500) became the latest to report a sharp drop in earnings. It had already warned it expected to miss its earlier guidance on 2007 earnings.

Pulte Homes (Charts, Fortune 500), the No. 4 U.S. homebuilder, posted a loss late last month. No. 2 homebuilder D.R. Horton (Charts, Fortune 500) reported a 37 percent drop in the number of new homes sold in the latest quarter, citing weakness in prices and saying the typical start to the spring home buying season hasn't begun.

No. 3 Centex (Charts, Fortune 500) and New Jersey-based Hovnanian Enterprises (Charts, Fortune 500) both also reported losses in the most recent quarter.

No. 5 builder KB Home (Charts, Fortune 500) returned to an operating profit in its most recent quarter after an earlier loss, but its CEO warned in April that he expects the housing slump to get worse.
Posted at 18/5/2007 18:13 by deanforester
The share price on merger will be the TWOD price. Currently values WMPY at 698p.
Posted at 09/5/2007 20:10 by 8gamsby
MARKPUN sorry meant no other offers or interested parties.Ithink if no-one else comes forward TWOD SHARE PRICE WILL PLUNGE.WMPY valued at over £2.7 billion.I hope someone else comes forward.
Posted at 27/4/2007 07:44 by judge jury
Well, Robinson says they see nothing at this stage, but the WMPY share price is saying a PSN approach is all but a certainty. The WMPY share price at 598p is some 75p or 12% below the implied merger price of 673p so there are some big, presumably informed bets saying PSN is circling.
Posted at 13/4/2007 11:42 by judge jury
WMPY is still trading at about 9% below the implied merger price, suggesting there is still plenty of speculation that PSN will bid for TWOD ... and TWOD's UK assets are obviously attractive to PSN.

I myself am a bit confused, since Peter Johnson's purchase of TWOD shares this week would seem to rule out a PSN bid (unless I am missing something). Also, PSN have got to be pretty scared of TWOD's US business, given the continued bad news from other housebuilders over there.

The formal merger documents should be coming out soon. It will be interesting to see if the terms of the merger change at all. There has to be a decent chance of a return of capital being introduced.

Assuming no PSN bid, the c.540p price will in my view depend on (1) whether there is a return of capital and (2) a rerating of the merged business, which presumably wont happen until (a) the merger beds down and integration risk reduces and (b) there is better news from the US market.
Posted at 31/3/2007 12:22 by judge jury
I have realised that I have made a mistake with my ex-div/cum-div share price calculations. It looks like WMPY went ex-div on 2 March, whereas TWOD goes ex-div on 25 May. This means that the implied merger price of WMPY is 13.1p lower than I thought.

I think this means that TWOD's closing price of 489.5p yesterday would imply a WMPY price of 656.5p which is 21p (or 3%) higher than WMPY's closing price of 635.5p. So only minor bid speculation at the moment.
Posted at 27/3/2007 20:36 by judge jury
Here's a simplistic post merger valuation. I have literally done it on a piece of paper in 5 mins so if there are errors, I apologise.

Assuming the merger goes ahead on the current terms, there will be 1,141m shares in issue, with TWOD shareholders keeping hold of the 582m shares they currently have and WMPY shareholders swapping their shares for 559m new TWOD shares.

I am not sure what the current forecasts are for the two groups, but the combined PBT for 2006 was £777m (source: 2.5 announcement). Let's assume they both grow their PBT by 10% this year and lets assume the £70m of synergies are achieved this year. This would mean the proforma PBT for 2007 is about £925m.

Assume a 30% tax rate, and we get to PAT of some £650m. Apply a sensible PE rating (lets say 9.5x earnings), and we get to a market value of £5.9bn. Given that there will be 1,141m shares in issue, this would imply a post merger share price of around 540p.

Persimmon would have to pay about 700p to disrupt the deal in my view ... tough call, but they are tough Yorkshiremen after all
Posted at 27/3/2007 09:11 by judge jury
Just doing some quick sums to see how realistic a PSN bid for TWOD might be.

TWOD's net assets per share at 31/12/06 was 364.7p. Any bid wont close until about the mid-year, so net assets per share at this point will be somewhere close to 400p.

From memory, BDEV paid about 1.8x net assets for WLB and PSN paid about 1.45x net assets for WBY. I can't see TWOD recommending any bid for less than the WLB multiples, so lets assume PSN will have to pay 1.8x net assets. That would mean they would have to pay about 720p per share, or about £4.2bn.

I dont think PSN could afford a £4.2bn all cash bid. However, they could probably afford something like a 50:50 cash: share bid.

However, PSN faces some quite big risks. For one, they know nothing about the US and it will take them a lot of time to get up to speed on all of TWOD's markets over there. OK, they may want to spin it off, but they would have to buy TWOD assuming they would take it on (they are very unlikely to find a buyer of these assets within the bid timetable).

I also wonder whether the competition people might want to take a quick look at a PSN bid.

Then there are the normal acquisition/due diligence risks (although PSN are quite good at buying companies).

When it comes down to it, I just think PSN wont want to pay close to £2bn in goodwill. It would be betting the firm and risking all the good work that it has done thus far for a business that may not be that good. Quite simply, this is a deal they dont need to do.

I hope I am proved wrong though.
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