Kibo Energy Share Discussion Threads

[yaki] 12/6/2017 15:46

Lurker5/John

Re your post 4075. Good read and highlights how complex these projects and probably why they can be so lucrative once up and running.

So you are claiming that if an investor pays NPV for a project, they won't make any profit.

"...going forward 25 years. No sensible investor would pay that because he won't make any profit by doing so - which is why most mining shares stand at no more than 1/2 to 1/3rd their 'theoretical' NPV's per share."

I presume maths has never been one of your strong subjects?
What about the unwinding of the discount rate? It is a bit like buying a company where the market cap is the NPV of its future dividends. So according to you, investors shouldn't be buying shares neither?

OK, let me give you a very simple example. You have a project which needs 200 to develeop and then will pay 50 a year for 10 years. NPV10 is c 100.
So if you pay 100 and then put the 200 to develop the project, you have spent 300 and will be getting 500, ie profit of 200!
So you can make profit by buying at NPV??

Or if you want, we can do it in Future Value terms, if you can handle it!

Obviously, the discount rate is very important and can change the valuations either way! When I was young, I have been to a number of pension trustee board meetings where we asked the pension board what funding level they wanted and we gave it to them by changing our assumptions!

[bionicmanfromwestham] 12/6/2017 15:14

Good post Mr KVery much appreciate it that you have shared it with us all.It all helps in our investment decisions.Thank you & KINDEST regards.BMFWH

[yaki] 12/6/2017 15:10

Hey MrK
How are you doing, hope all well?

Well, ups and downs here, as usual. To be fair, he said that he was in early discussions with the GoT. As you know these projects take long time to fruition and not always without setbacks.

[uknighted] 12/6/2017 15:10

Yes, MrK a good call on your part.

[mrkeysersoze] 12/6/2017 15:00

Which year is this interview from?http://kibomining.com/2012/09/cnbc-interview-with-kibo-ceo-louis-coetzee/LC tells a good story, it looks like the penny is starting to drop....... how much time can he be given ?Mr K.

[bionictwat] 12/6/2017 14:59

UKIS 2017 KIBO NotesPolicy Changes -Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS?These are two completely diffrent reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official.In your assessment how long will the Tanzainan Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete?Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight.As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too?Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future.Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP?Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years.ESIA -What does the ESIA Certification process involve?Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process.Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.SML -Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.PPA -Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model?The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tarriffs agreed with Tanesco?N/AAgain, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews?N/AFC -Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other workstreams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC.Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC?This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway.Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature?Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout.MCPP General -How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government?They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here.Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO?LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from.Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated?No comment.What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down?No comment.Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-?Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on.When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at?Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo.Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/AHow does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP?This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will.Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro?It will either be spun out or in all likelyhood hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO.If so at what point would you need to initiate this?N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly.Sandersons -Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility?There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn?I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this.Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this?See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo.Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them?LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly.How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation?They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation.Beaufort -Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside?Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.Government of TanzaniaWhat actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point?Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways.Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government?See aboveHave you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK?Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP'S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc.Sepco III -:-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project.Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion.NPV -Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures?Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified.Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be.See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors -You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo?LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated.Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it?See above.Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML?It will be covered under the SML, already applied for.If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later?It will be covered under the SML already applied for.We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount?The mine is the mine, it will take $17mWhat ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market?Amazingly $60/ $70 per mtWhat is the profit margin per tonne?No commentWhat is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market?A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential.Is there much competition in local market?Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price.Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored?Not impossible but for internal use only for now.CSR Program -What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this?This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now.RNS -General feedback is that RNS' need more proof reading, could include more numbers for the market to correctly value us on, along with maybe a little shine when we do things well, although I do think we attempt to hide not so good news well.It was noted but felt most issues were not related to the real material news.Q & A -Given the amount of mails sent into you that must take up valuable time, can we schedule a monthly Q & A through Vox Markets, as this seemed to be a great way of investors being able to interact with you on current issues and may not only cut down on your email inbox but act as great PR.Dedicated email address to be set up with a monthly Q and A sessions as previously conducted via Vox.SP Value -As much as we can see progressions on all project fronts and especially the MCPP, do you conceed that there is only a material increase in share price value when the share is consistently worth more this year than it was last year?Although I didn't ask this the general conversation regarding the share price led to the opinion there will be several significant catalysts for share price improvement coming over the next 2/3 months.To that end, what do you think will be the trigger for realising solid share price value with regard the MCPP, bar an offer being made for the project.See above.I have a value of approx $150-175m for selling a 300MW config with the coal, if retained being worth 25p at the 32.7mt price. Do you feel this is accurate?Approached the his in a slightly more round about way. They certainly didn't argue and I felt this wasn't far off of what they were thinking either.If sold, how do you I tend to make sure we don't end up selling a 1000MW plant for the price of a discounted 300MW plant.This was probably the most significant part of the his home day for me. Each 300MW will be sold as as separate company. Different level of ownership could be assigned over each stage. Therefore KIBO can benefit and realise from the full 1000MW. This IMO, significantly raises the value of the total investment we could realise given a longer term view. Assuming this does reach FC then alot more is at stake than a 300MW value. This alone as the most revealing part of the day. There is an absolutely massive value waiting to be unlocked. I also asked if now relationships between all parties had been established if a rinse and repeat of the whole project could be on the cards? LC just smiled and said, "Yes, of course it could".How do you best expect to materially realise value back to all share holders, would a special dividend vs income be your preferred method of distribution?A special dividend would always be a way to go, when realising share holder value.

[bionicmanfromwestham] 12/6/2017 14:45

I have only myself to blame buying in @ 5.70 thinking they were cheap it shows how wrong I was ( LOL )Kindest regardsBMFWH

[electrick] 12/6/2017 14:28

just another year until the company share options (@5p) mature....

Another 12 months! Wonder when they will be refreshed.. The last 2 years must have been tortuous for the recipients of the 15.3 million options granted 2 years ago...

spare a thought for them

[bionicmanfromwestham] 12/6/2017 14:24

I'm a newbie and have to admit I am worrying about my investment wether or not to sell up.Another 4 weeks I shall give it and make my decision. ( LOL )

[electrick] 12/6/2017 14:21

turning out to be an above average volume day for the month.

Very surprised to see the price remaining where it is...A few pushes will see a big impact on this

perhaps this afternoon will drip it down...

[nerdofsteel] 12/6/2017 14:09

Does anyone know which decade the power station is due to be built?

[richie32] 12/6/2017 13:45

LC has brought us to a good position. Waiting game now.

I'll sit on this & forget for a while but I'm v confident in mgt ability to produce real value here.

Deramper interest always a good signal

[bionicmanfromwestham] 12/6/2017 13:43

Anyone know the dress code for the AGM ?I'm a skinhead and wear 22 hole Dr Martin's with red laces.Advice would be much appreciated.Thank you.BMFWH

[lurker5] 12/6/2017 13:36

Mr Patch - For heavens' sake. The quoted economics for MCPP are for the 'project' before any funding and before taking account of interest or whatever. You display total ignorance of what a technical economic report on a 'project' is.
Elektric. As you can see, 'robust' discussion is impossible !

[bionicmanfromwestham] 12/6/2017 13:16

I speak on behalf of all holders here that none of us have faith in LC anymore.We seem to be heading backwards every week and he's just ignoring the LTH. ( LOL )

[guitars4stars] 12/6/2017 13:13

Such an effort Earlsfield to empower us with your wisdom - if only you had called the spectacular 'you know what' failed share correctly then maybe we might care about your opinion:)

[electrick] 12/6/2017 12:53

I would say £1.5M would see 40m shares added to the register once the various fees have been accounted for too!!

Anyone else think it odd how Sands MO was to sell all shares previously... this then stopped as the company had a decent advance on Sepco receivable...
Wonder if they would like to hold tight to an additional 10% of the company? Wonder if they will revert to type...

Played like a fiddle... such elongation of strategic action's timescales will certainly caused more that a slight dent to shareholder value!

Curses...

[bionicmanfromwestham] 12/6/2017 12:48

I feel that I have shown a lack of intelligence by purchasing stock higher than were at now ( LOL )Only time will tell I suppose if I ever get my money back ( LOL )Kindest regardsBMFWH

[bionicmanfromwestham] 12/6/2017 12:45

Intelligent....... Its difficult to say who is actually intelligent us as holders or all them watching KIBO like sonic said & waiting to get in cheaper ( LOL )Kindest regardsBMFWH

[bionicmanfromwestham] 12/6/2017 12:39

Let's just say IF a placing is on the way then what do we think the price will be ?Kindest regardsBMFWH