Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 22:57

Well I guess only having donkey and his multiple aliases on this forum doesn’t really stretch the mental capacity.

Thank goodness for twitter though, most discussions take place on social media these days I find.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 22:44

Is the Thick Monkey, possessor of the tanking CBM project getting uppity through lack of meaningful engagement on a totally unrelated message forum? F--k, how could that come to pass. I think I'm getting to know you.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 22:37

Monkey isn't as wise as monkey tries to sound.

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 22:27

Monkey sees as monkey does.

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 22:26

As I said Murray, more to it than that.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 22:22

Unfortunately even if TLOU needs funds, I won't be a subscriber. I see little future value or in country leverage and a strong possibility of TLOU being strong-armed out of some or all of it's acreage. Even if the licenses remain in tact, there are significant challenges to extraction and commercialization. Not for me. But as you say, if you want to discuss TLOU you can do it on the TLOU board.

Your 'beef' with another poster has zero weight with me. Your 'proposal' says a lot about you personally, anonymous or not.

"Let’s see if he entertains sticking to each other’s boards although I doubt it."

Reminds me of the US and UK governments. Collateral damage is no object as long as you get what you want in the process. Bottom of the barrel material.

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 22:05

Little more to it than that Murray.

As per the above however I am sure the suggested proposal would be favourable to you? Over to Donkey.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 21:59

KMR is about 200% up since I dug in taking into account fundraiser and consolidation. I'm aiming for a minimum of another 200%. Sure, comic timing, you believe it or you don't. You need to look at other AIM or FTSE 250 mining train wrecks to see when you should move on them. TLOU could well find itself in the same boat; after all avenues and funds are exhausted, may need new money to keep it going. None of that new money will care about old money. It will be a carcass picking exercise.

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 21:51

Yep donkey and what was the comparison again? -99.9% KMR

Happy to put this to bed Murray but the balls in donkeys court. Let’s see if he entertains sticking to each other’s boards although I doubt it.

[donkey40] 24/4/2018 21:45

30% up on IPO - eeaaaaw, eeaaaaw, eeaaaaw. Another investor claiming entry at lowest price traded. That’s about 4 of them now... I think they all met at a frack party.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 21:41

Bearing out the same thing all the time. Daggers out for KMR, nothing to support TLOU. Doesn't bother me in the slightest. I think I'll leave you two muppets at it, one is a bad as the other but I'd bet hard against TLOU in this contest. You're probably going to see 4p before 10p.

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 21:24

Murray let’s discuss Kenmare shall we?

As for Tlou small caps generally swing wildly so 60% off its highs but 30% up on IPO and around 90% up from my first purchase (who’s counting though right?). KMR with its revenues is what, 99.9% down since ipo?

Anyway I digress, discussion here is around Kenmare. Donkey unfortunately likes to post lies elsewhere and has done for two years so forgive me if my interest in his stocks has spurred some digging in the recent months.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 20:28

TLOU is down 60% in the last three months alone. Probably be better use of your time to figure out what the hell is going wrong with your investment than trying to find holes in ours. I'm not interested in TLOU, so I'm not interested in going over to the TLOU board talking about how SH1T it is. But clearly, the market has spoken, hasn't it? So no amount of fundamental justification will refute that TLOU has continued to TANK since January. Much like KMR? So, is it that both KMR and TLOU are mutts? Remember, KMR is the one with substantial EBITDA (last FY) and substantial EBITDA and net-profit for next FY. TLOU? Best guess? When the tide turns, money running out of technical and other overvalued stocks and into basic materials, do you expect TLOU to get a free ride when there is nothing tangible on the horizon?

I'll take a bet that while the sector has been treated as a 'whole' for the last four or five months, and currency, sanctions and tariffs are also in play, when crunch time comes the 'machines' will start being discerning. Whole new market here that doesn't involve any rational investor thinking. If you have anything left in TLOU I'd consider salvaging it before H2 gets underway. I say H2, but things may move before that.

The machines won't be worrying about the ECHA nor will they worry about TLOU's alternate plans having been dropped from the running in the prior tender process. I have my own doubts about the re-tenders and likely victors given how the last act played out.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 19:53

You used a whole lot of words there to say not a lot. Much like previous.

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 19:39

Murray I don’t buy the above personally and that is your opinion. Given KMR made reference explicitly in their RNS as well as many other industry professionals and those opposing the recategorisation due to fear of effect in the market for TiO2 to assume it won’t be an issue is an oversight but, that’s your belief.

Facts, I totally agree infact I Point this out to a certain someone daily.

I don’t portray to be an expert in all matters however the discussion above and that of the PE projection has absolutely nothing to do with the market movements of the week, the VWAP or the volumes. As an investor yourself I am sure you would agree.

[caposoka] 24/4/2018 19:26

This CARC 2 topic is a non event. Even if it was, there are various applications where the properties of TiO2 would be difficult to replicate on economical or practical terms. Plenty of reports out there stating the difficulties in TiO2 replacement.

Donkey – who knows, could be a multitude of reasons…. both are entering a capex phase with inherent execution risks, doubts on how this will affect returns to shareholders. Plus this current global expansion cycle is already long in the tooth, with slow down fears set to increase, repricing of USD rates which will affect asset prices, China’s true growth rate being perhaps lower then reported (say 5-6%), lag effects now being felt of China’s efforts to curb credit expansion, commodities in general feeling the pinch….. I don’t think it is KMR specific as news would be out by now.

KMR’s EBITDA in 2017 was more than double the aggregate total of the 4 year period 2013-2016. This year it is set to double again, with debt falling substantially. I remain unconcerned and have been quietly accumulating in the past month or so.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 19:02

I participate in other industry forums and talk to industry professionals; I can tell you, again, much as I have told you before, WHO/IARC already categorizes TIO2 in nano-particle form as CARC 2 and this is neither new news or a major concern for the industry.

You may recall (short term memory deficit?), that I told you the ECHA/ECC concluded that the submission on CARC 2 categorization was inadequate, needed 'enormous' work to prove out and that since then KMR withdrew that issue as a principal risk and uncertainty in the list in their AR.

For further reading I'd suggest checking the ARs of all other HMS operators and see which others see it as an issue. None? Also keep in mind that the industry is actively working with ECHA on the issue. Not quite black and white at all.

This also wouldn't, as you suggest, explain a difference in (for example) the relative performance of BSE or KMR relative to ILU. I could help you out a little on that, some time.

The best trolls I've seen tend to stay away from the facts because once you try to start dealing with facts that you don't really have a handle on, it makes for poor trolling. You should revert to making scary stuff up from scratch, you know, ghost stories that scare the kids and all that. How about TIO2 is evil? Remember, witch doctor at the gate, etc?

Finally, keep in mind, all of this useless crack and banter on ADVFN doesn't really matter much to anyone anyway.

As an expert in all matters, maybe you could give an opinion on the trading volumes, VWAP, etc, for the last week or so and rationalize it for us?

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 18:29

Donkey, reference base resources - perhaps those in the titanium feedstock market are wary around the re-categorisation of TiO2 as a category 2 carcinogenic.

If you think that will have no repurcussions on spot price you are stupider than I thought.

It appears there are plenty who are concerned in the industry as a whole, even KMR raised concerns and an outcome will be on the cards which so far isn’t lookin favourable.

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 18:27

Murray on the contrary I was responding to your point.

If you believe a PE of 10 is valid for such a company (perhaps in normal circumstances I would agree) but with Kenmare much is to be proven.

It appears the market aren’t following your belief either.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 18:23

He believes you'd actually use a P/E to value the company. I was trying to keep it simple for him.

[donkey40] 24/4/2018 16:59

Cap / Iluka - is interesting that Base R is equally unloved by the market currently. Any proper ideas why? Can we try to filter out the other noise ...

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 09:22

A PE of 10 would be toppy given past performance.

Perhaps a PE of 5 may be more realistic.

[murraybasin] 24/4/2018 08:42

We'll see if the market starts to agree when KMR posts H1 EBITDA of $50m and net profit of $30m which will give a prospective valuation of $600m on a PE of 10 in a market where the prices for all three product suites are still on the rise (and a fourth product to add this year).

Targets between 450p and 500p? In a market where it nearly costs you money to have a bank deposit, if I wasn't buying this for 125% upside, I'd be buying it for 10% upside given it has an operational mine that is generating a healthy operating margin and profit unlike many AIM juniors where the value is based on hopes and dreams but nothing tangible.