Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[wheniamfree] 15/4/2018 10:41

Murray perhaps, although rattling the hornets nest isn’t always the answer.

Regards 2018 forecasts, production figures are actually expected to be down on 2017 yet operational costs are to increase?

[murraybasin] 15/4/2018 09:45

Authorities in MZ have a novel way of dealing with 'members'. They arrange early appointments with their 'maker'.

[wheniamfree] 15/4/2018 07:06

This company is called KenmARE.

It is you who’s alias was Kenmore (also Kanmere, Changiboy and various other aliases you registered to try and avert your LSE ban).

There’s a fact for you.

I just shared a link, isn’t that what forums are for, to share research? At least my view has some evidence to support it, you should give it a try.

[donkey40] 14/4/2018 23:49

There is a link to something on the internet - it MUST be a FACT.

Yet more sh1te from the resident Kenmore troll. As Murraybasin says, you don’t deserve any more of our time.

[wheniamfree] 14/4/2018 22:29

Looks to be escalating.

[murraybasin] 14/4/2018 16:53

Plan is for 1.2mt of ilmenite PA /plus/ co-products. Zircon and Rutile will increase proportionally also with the total output pressing for 1.3mt. That tips future revenue towards:
* Ilmenite 1.2m x 200 = 240,000,000
* Zircon 80k x 1500 = 120,000,000
* Rutile 10k x 900 = 9,000,000
= USD 369m.

A few years to go before we get there but we will be climbing from USD 208m in 2017 towards USD 369m in 2022. That USD 369m figure is not remotely reflected in current broker forecasts of 500p.

[caposoka] 14/4/2018 16:27

To answer a few questions, assuming they are genuine and not already known, especially as answers are readily available in recent annual reports / podcasts….
KMR has 4 major customers (65%+).
a ratio of long term contracted sales : spot of approx. 2:1. Contracts renegotiated typically every 6 months. If you follow the BB’s for long enough you will see people complaining the ratio of spot is not more (when product prices are increasing), the ratio of contracted is not more (when product prices are falling). Personally I think that KMR know what they are doing – they do sell more than 8% of the world supply.
KMR have property, plant, equipment assets of approx. USD 800M and an annual depreciation charge of circa USD 30M. It would not be unreasonable to assume they will use a 25 year+ depreciation period for the WCP B investment of USD 19M. Through the depreciation charge it will added less than USD 1M p.a. on to the cash cost, which on production of 1Mt p.a. equates to less than USD 1 cash cost per tonne produced. Compare this to the change in WASP anticipated to rise by USD 20/t every year for the next 3 years. Under the planned mine path and movements from one ore body to another, the decline in grades has been flagged and an issue to be tackled. This investment (and others) are part of the plan to increase production from 1Mt p.a. to 1.2Mt p.a. (which is the name plate capacity of the MSPs). To view one of these investments in isolation is not the way to go. The collective investments will increase production and improve value, (marginal increase in the fixed cost base vs a large increase in revenue as set out above).

[wheniamfree] 14/4/2018 08:36

“High slime zone - really? Says who, is that what your detailed analysis is showing? Perhaps you should read the BHP report where their number 1 criteria for project acceptance in the mineral sands sector specified the tolerance levels for slimes.”

Says who? Maybe the RNS published by the Company are wrong here too then...?

“However, WCP A will remain in a higher slimes zone for Q2 2018.”

Still skirting around the answers to the questions, I assume you can’t answer each of the points above?

[donkey40] 13/4/2018 23:54

PS what are the 2 message boards again ?

[donkey40] 13/4/2018 23:53

Product sales flagging - really ? Qtr1 each year is generally the quiet quarter.

Fluctuating ore body headings - well I Guess we are lucky then having done a 180 turn. It will be all good again soon.

High slime zone - really? Says who, is that what your detailed analysis is showing? Perhaps you should read the BHP report where their number 1 criteria for project acceptance in the mineral sands sector specified the tolerance levels for slimes.

Personally can’t see a period of turnaround - really, honestly ? Too easy to say the dredge just did a turnaround but, as you say, Qtr2 will show some numbers. I just can’t get the metric of Excavated ore x 4 or 5% grade to HMC through to raw product extracted (along with all of its carcogenic properties) less slimes = a number that is substantially different or dramatically worse than the last 15 years. Still there are always more clever people than me out there.

Fisherman fisherman from over the sea; have thee a lobster I will sell to thee;
Yes sir yes sir I have 3 and the biggest of of the Bar-stewards I will sell to thee.
And everybody goes home happy.

[murraybasin] 13/4/2018 23:46

Quite clear "wheniamfree" you are just here to pick a fight with "donkey40" and not interested in KMR. I think on that basis we'll leave you to figure out, or troll if you prefer, KMR on your own. But, you certainly aren't worth any more of my time.

[wheniamfree] 13/4/2018 23:28

How am I a troll? I’m offering up more discussion than yourself - couple of questions above for you. If you have the ability to answer? Thanks.

I’m not playing your games donkey, you know all too well.

[wheniamfree] 13/4/2018 22:58

Murray more than happy to discuss Kenmare, it perhaps would be interesting to get some valid input from donkey so he can also add some context instead of just “Kenmare has employees, Kenmare has revenue”. I think we have gone beyond establishing those points and as i said earlier, it means nothing.

As for the gradings perhaps I have misconstrued this based on sale prices and assumed as such. If that is the case, then why are product sales lagging - does this bear reference to contract age? Donkey, perhaps again you can assist here since I have asked this point 3 times now.

The ore body gradings will fluctuate however it is clear that YoY the grade average has fallen, the remediation step was to upgrade concentrator B. Fine, this will offset the decline however it is clear that the tonnage of production will remain the same. Why?

Surely if you are to invest a capex of around $19m on expansion, you would aim to achieve an increase in production or else there is no way to interpret it but for a remediation case. Therefore production figures remain the same as 2017 but with a spend of $19m and additional opex.

Since Q1 is trailing on production then Q2 should be increased however with the upgrade destined for Q2 and concentrator A in a high slime zone anticipated for the entire quarter there will need to be some heavy carry from dry mining - this is why I said Q2 would be the better indicator, I personally can’t see a period of turnaround here?

If grades are to remain in decline until 2021 when a new orebody will be targetted what rate of growth is the company expecting to report?

[murraybasin] 13/4/2018 22:41

I'm not convinced you are solely here to discuss KMR, because interspersed with some admittedly couture analysis you've made a few disingenuous attempts to discredit KMR, for example, the poorly informed connection between ore grade and final product grade and the (unlikely) impact on final product prices. Perhaps we can chalk that up to a developing knowledge of the mineral sands business.

I'm happy to help with any understanding of affairs KMR but in return I'd ask that you dial back any unsubstantiated rhetoric. At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter so much to me, but, I like to see that people with some interest are generally steered in the right direction rather than thwarted by a bunch of idiots who don't really know what they are talking about.

[wheniamfree] 13/4/2018 22:08

Donkey I am merely asking you a question.

Instead of responding with some silly comments about capital expenditure (which I haven’t even asked about) why can’t you answer anything of importance and relevance?

If all your interested in is what has been spent historically and a company that has customers, revenue, debt and assets why do you not see the similarities on each and every company I mentioned above who went under? As Kenmare almost did prior to refinance, what is left of shareholders investments prior to this stage? 1-5% of total investment? Maybe?

It means absolutely nothing. If that were true all companies who went into liquidation/administration with similar points would still exist.

Your point is flawed.

[donkey40] 13/4/2018 21:56

Jeez, you really are intent on being a big Windbag tonight.

And yes, you are right - they have invested $1.5bn of shareholders equity and lenders debt, so +ve cash flows matter to this company! Why would you think it wouldn’t - yet another negative post, or was that opinion, or even fact (in your fantasy dream world where you exist).

Shame - you are getting great insight and conversation from people that know this company inside out, and you keep posting as you do, trying to bait me and trying to eek out some pathetic point scoring childish whim. Honestly, I think you should go to bed now.

[wheniamfree] 13/4/2018 21:49

Donkey still waiting on the answer in regards to contract lengths on existing customers and % split.

Do you know?

Given the above points I’d consider it rather important.

[wheniamfree] 13/4/2018 21:47

As for holding your thumbs, the announcement on categorisation could actually come this year it appears.