Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 07:49

Is the operations director onsite or, what % of time is spent there overseeing the mine?

Surely that would be a basic requirement.

[wheniamfree] 24/4/2018 07:33

I don’t think the market agrees with your beliefs Murray. I think many on LSE have been spinning the same yarn for years, all promise with little action.

The last RNS was just more jam tomorrow in my mind. “We have issues, we are aiming for mid target (hopefully), we need to spend more money getting there”.

In the mean time there are plenty more pressing risks out of the companies hands as I’ve mentioned above which appear so far to be being brushed under the carpet, a big risk none the less but since KMR have no control on it - best just forget about it until it happens. Maybe that’s the mentality of the board whilst they continue to draw large salaries from a exceptionally large number of noses in the trough.

Sub 200p this week if the trend isn’t bucked.

[donkey40] 23/4/2018 17:02

Ok then - you are the man !!

[wheniamfree] 23/4/2018 17:01

We are talking about Kenmare.

I see a new low has been established today. I am commenting on market perception and the belief of what is actually happening on the ground.

You then throw in the curve ball of category 2 carcinogenics for TiO2 which is still an unknown and it’s adverse effects on the market in which Kenmare operate.

Mozambique isn’t shaping up much better either but, as we know. At best KMR hope to continue flat production levels during a fall off in grades (ergo opex increase).

[donkey40] 23/4/2018 16:15

Thanks for your contribution - your bias is well known. Ignoring your nonsense - let’s think like grown ups for a bit.

Sovereign Wealth Fund hold 30% at current entry price; M&G Recovery Fund hold 20% at same entry price - having been the dominant players in the rescue and refinancing 2 years back, you reckon with the sector showing strong pricing fundamentals at this reasonably early stage in the cycle they are going to be remotely interested in a T/O at current levels? Coz neither Cap or Murray or myself think it and nobody else is listening here - so wind your neck back in. You are better than that.

Your other little pet company however is still all promise and potential which, through no fault of their own, has got pushed backed at least 1 and maybe 2 more years. They should just say it as it is instead of trying to bluff the retail punters.

Coz there in a nutshell is the difference between the 2 companies - one is controlled by a few large II holders and the other is pandering to a retail herd who sadly for the company are starting to smell the coffee.

Behave yourself - as I say, you are better than this nonsense.

[wheniamfree] 23/4/2018 13:00

I read this on LSE

“Yes. Either a dog of a share or aggressive/Strategic TO taking place....”

I would opt for the prior. Not entirely sure who would be in a position to allow share price suppression to create a hostile TO.

Not going to happen. Don’t think the market believe this years forecasts will be achievable given the issues already experienced in Q1

[murraybasin] 20/4/2018 08:38

Not sure. Surely if Q1 involves a reversal in the mine path and complete relocation of all dry mining equipment, then Q2 would have to be better, unless it involves a reversal in the mine path and complete relocation of all dry mining equipment.

Don't think anyone with an interest in HMS would let some minor production hiccups write off their full year expectations.

[wheniamfree] 20/4/2018 07:49

Oil, copper, nickel, gold and various other commodities also favourable at present.

Plenty of other good stocks churning solid revenues with good historic performance.

This one needs to prove itself but, as you say and as I stated previously - Q1 already has issues and they are already forecasting mid target range. I can’t see how Q2 will be any better personally.

[murraybasin] 19/4/2018 20:23

Donkey, are we nearly there yet? Maybe the market says "more of the same". After a few promising quarters of performance, here is KMR again with "production issues" in the first quarter of 2018. Still on track to meet full year guidance, but do you believe it? Capital had been selling down, mind you, they probably need funds to continue to buy up the defense sector.

Looks like fake news and chemical weapons are a better driver for investment than raw materials.

[murraybasin] 19/4/2018 20:07

Sounds like BS. Top few holders have 80% of the company. Only way to approach TO is to bid what the company is worth. 'Hostile' isn't an option on the table.

[wheniamfree] 19/4/2018 18:54

I see a lot of posts on LSE mentioning forced down for TO.

Does not stack up one bit, if that were true then who’s selling to suppress thebprice? If indeed it is the major holders why would they be exiting prior to bid and secondly why wouldn’t any suitor just not approach with a hostile move.

They could easily engage 30% combined holders and strike a deal off market to liquidate their positions and make a low ball take.

I think MC pressure to entice holders to move on has worked, trouble is nobody wants the stock.

[donkey40] 19/4/2018 17:26

Gents - this is starting to look real scary. Never thought I would see 210p being tested. We could have waited 3 years and invested now rather than when averaging down when around old 1p level.
Can there be something more sinister going on we are not aware of? This makes no sense to me.

[caposoka] 18/4/2018 19:38

Hi Murray - think it is difficult to compare with Base’s unit costs as their ore grade is close to double KMR’s and this is the major factor that overrides other considerations. Re: dozer trap - the topography works for BASE as they have a high face (in the central dune) so they can keep pushing distances relatively short for a decent volume of material before they have to relocate. I’m not sure how the elevation works out for KMR but presume it would be lower. Without knowing the relative distances, volumes and costs, can’t comment much further other than the principle works and is something I’m sure KMR would look at when planning their dry mining. Re: Pilivili – one of the reasons for targeting this ore body ahead of others is that the ‘slimes’ (which I would normally refer to as fine material - silts and clays) is relatively low so the cleaner sand offers better dredging conditions and better productivity for the dredging equipment. Last point, the planned 500tph dredger is to target parts of the ore body which are not accessible or not viable for the larger plant so think it is very much horses for courses in looking at the various options.

[murraybasin] 18/4/2018 19:02

Capasoka - I was looking at aerial pictures of the mine site on GE from 2013. The dry mining operation at WCP B was occupying a pit sized area at least as large the mining pond.

I suspect what happened in Q1 is that the dredge path turned back on the dry mining site, so in addition to the turn, a new dry mining operation had to be established. That would have required relocation of mobile and non-mobile mining equipment but also pipes, pumps, water sources, etc. Concurrent down time for both the dredge/WCP and the dry mining operation.

This is more or less what they've said but probably without the kind of color that explains to the casual observer what it really means.

Question: Base seem to be managing to keep costs down even though they have a dozer trap operation. In your experience could KMR try something similar in Pilivili?

[caposoka] 18/4/2018 00:43

I agree – seemed like a load of excuses cobbled together to justify a poor production quarter and sometimes may be it is better to have less information! Turning a dredger is not much of an issue but it no doubt involved moving the MSP, pipelines and anchoring systems so if several days were lost doing it within a 90 day period it can have a noteworthy impact. Sales held up to target making use of stocks and production will catch up so on second read, thought it was a solid quarter.

[staffy dog] 17/4/2018 23:34

Took my cash off the table and put it all into the post office.

[donkey40] 17/4/2018 22:58

Cap - do you ever remember them telling us they did a 180 turn with the dredger?? I hadn’t heard it before, so it must move very very veerrrrrrryyyyyyy slowly or the mine path must be seriously long. The whole tone of Q1 Pr report amused me no end.

[caposoka] 17/4/2018 22:05

As an add on to this, historically KMR would set a mine path to target high grade zones in Q4 to build up stock to tide them over Q1 (ref Y14-Y16) but by Y17, the increase in power reliability had reduced the need for this and gave them more operational flexibility. Also, KMR also tend to build up stocks of HMC and partially processed intermediate concentrate so in times of power outages, MSPs continue to operate on generator power even if dredging stops. The same applies during time of dredger maintenance etc or times of poor dredging conditions. These types of operational improvements come naturally as an operation is bedded in and improving operational utilisation time appears part of KMR’s present mission.

[donkey40] 17/4/2018 21:21

Personally, I always had a suspicion the power this, cyclone that was a smokescreen for deeper issues. They always seemed to get the Production job done - Sales and margins were on the down so blame elsewhere. Of course it was done far more subtly that I express.

In my view, with 200/- tonnes finished sticks, production isn’t wagging the tail of this dog just yet.

[murraybasin] 17/4/2018 20:39

We should add, that wasn't Q1 this year (though we don't know what did/didn't happen in Q1 this year), but historically it was a Q1 annually (cyclone season). In Q1 2015 there was significant disruption to power following which a lot of 'traditional' timber carrier infrastructure was replaced by EDM (power company) with metal pylons having concrete foundations. Intent is that they are both cyclone and flood proof.

[trev1223] 17/4/2018 19:23

caposoka - thank you for your explanation, we learn something new every day.

[caposoka] 17/4/2018 16:07

As KMR’s operations are fed off the national grid in Moz (electrically powered MSP and dredgers), dips in the power supply can cause major production issues so ‘dip doctors’ were installed a few years back to smooth out the supply (akin to a larger version of say a UPS in offices).
Major outages in the power supply also caused major issues such as power lines being washed away during rainy season (Q1) but repairs and upgrades in recent years have led to a more stable supply. Back up generators were also introduced to keep the critical equipment running but these are only a back-up as they have a much higher running cost (diesel vs hydroelectric power).