Kaz Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[book5] 02/8/2018 13:02

How can managers do this?
How much of their wealth is tight to this share? Zero?

[tsmith2] 02/8/2018 12:57

On that note in

[saltaire111] 02/8/2018 12:42

Having been a fan of KAZ in the past, I’m now pleased I am no longer invested here. This project is too risky for me, too much capital needed, too much debt and while it may pay off long term, I fear there are too many ifs, buts and maybes.

Salty

[temmujin] 02/8/2018 12:40

kaz was always too overpriced...compare it with vedanta...way under priced

[temmujin] 02/8/2018 12:38

you are better off buying small caps... ECR 2 million market cap and just found gold conglomerates...paul johnson just invested bigtime with his wife...professional investor

[manics] 02/8/2018 12:37

Putin's fault imo.

[foxy22] 02/8/2018 12:31

Extreme worse drop than fb!!

[sarahbudd] 02/8/2018 12:29

nearly 50% drop from high around 6 weeks ago.. seriously??

[arja] 02/8/2018 12:24

wow , just checked chart and it hit 580 . This sort of collapse is normally associated with a company which might not survive which is not the case here I assume !!

[zho] 02/8/2018 12:05

MT - Cheers

[mount teide] 02/8/2018 12:03

Zho - thanks - Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley are spot on - pleased i exited at the opening bell.

The market clearly does not like the deal - although viewed over a 5 - 10 outlook it could prove inspired, considering the size of the likely Copper deficit by 2025.

[arja] 02/8/2018 11:59

tssmith2 ,
seemed to be and then the fall to 62o level after a nice rally !Seems to be a complete
re-rating

[7ran5ac710n] 02/8/2018 11:22

BE"Course, as the Kims and Novachuk own just north of 50% of Kaz so they can do what the hell they want."

[smurfy2001] 02/8/2018 11:17

Along with the $5.5bn of capex on Baimskaya there's a further $1.2bn at its Aktogay project in Kazakstan.

Quote: Chukotka is a long way (physically, politically,climate-wise) from Kazakhstan. If you grew up playing the board game Risk, Chukotka is just west of Kamchatka. We think that the success of Kaz in Kazakhstan doesn’t necessarily translate into this part of Russia.

The CEO/Chiarman lost it's mind?

I'm removing this from my watch list so that's VED and KAZ gone :(

Need to find another quality miner to replace these.

Good luck all, been a pleasure.

Quote: The deal had been flagged in the media (e.g. here) & as such that the announcement is not wholly unexpected although we believe it has been an overhang for a number of investors, based on our recent conversations. Baimskaya undoubtedly provides a long pipe-line of growth as highlighted by copper equivalent production ~5% pa cagr 2030 vs. 2018 compared to -2% pa currently. However, pro-forma leverage will increase materially e.g. ~3.2x by YE’22 at spot vs. ~1.1x pre, and will continue to grow into next decade ahead of first production. Furthermore, as highlighted when we downgraded our recommendation in June (see here), we believe the market will likely attractive a higher equity risk premia given Russian risk. At this stage, we also hold reservations that a project coming on-line late next decade will be a catalyst for a re-rating in the equity particularly given the company already provided steady growth, was de-leveraging and there was a potential for a re-start of shareholder returns.

[zho] 02/8/2018 11:06

Discussion at

Merrill Lynch: "We struggle to see the logic of a foray outside core competency. Is Kazakhstan really mined out? After several years of upside surprise on execution and strategy, we see today’s news as a major strategy misstep."

Goldman Sachs: "The c.US$436mn in cash spend together with the capex spend of c.US$5.5bn will drive up leverage, we estimate to over 3 times by FY22, assuming the capex spend starts in FY19. In our view, the company could look to bring on a partner to share the capex load."

Morgan Stanley: "Thus we think this purchase adds considerable uncertainty, and may be a drain on cash for the next 10 years – we do not envisage the company paying a divi for the foreseeable future."

[arja] 02/8/2018 11:02

looks like 631 was the low point today but in this mini bear market with dow futurs tumbling it is not easy to open a long position mentally .

[arja] 02/8/2018 10:45

no, even though it is almost falling in a straight line . about 600 chart support is
worst case scenario/

[sarahbudd] 02/8/2018 10:44

hmm not the best timing then..seriously being shorted..

[temmujin] 02/8/2018 10:41

stops getting wiped out now...like a nuclear chain reaction..could implode sub 500p

[leoneobull] 02/8/2018 10:39

Deal has gone down like a Michael Gove speech

[sarahbudd] 02/8/2018 10:36

great minds...