Just Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 07/5/2021 11:04

Classic consolidation pattern, a little rest before heading to 150p. Much stronger than the other rest points in this rise too.

[alex4141] 07/5/2021 10:59

We have just reached 110 :-). Impressive value-driven rise.

[18bt] 07/5/2021 09:01

Rotation to value could drive this one further.

[jimmyh1] 10/4/2021 21:57

Solvency and Financial Condition Report for 2020 published now. Page 122 is an important one - shows the available Own Funds and SCR but also the impact of transitional relief that will unwind over the next 10 years. Transitional relief is still extremely significant.

[whatja] 07/4/2021 11:35

The share price shows no signs of slowing down.
I reckon on a decent Q1 update at the AGM date, until then happy for a bit of sideways /slight drift down to settle in.

[18bt] 06/4/2021 15:35

Whatja, yes, but also remember that JUST specialises in annuities for people with pre-existing medical conditions who have been more susceptible to COVID and to other co-morbidities.

[whatja] 06/4/2021 12:13

The indirect lockdown effect on older people will likely be significant....loss of mobility and social contact will bring an earlier end to many....but be wary of reading too much into national figures as those with annuities tend to be better off, and will experience a lower effect.

[baddeal] 30/3/2021 17:54

Nice to see a close over £1, it's been a while!

[undervaluedassets] 29/3/2021 12:35

hpcg. Sadly I concur. The pandemic has made it so. This is found money.

[hpcg] 25/3/2021 09:32

The report was a long read. Focusing on the risk factors there is a lot of mutual hedging with the interaction between life expectancy and equity release. They did note more competition coming in to the latter. I too think the annuity book will benefit from the direct and indirect results of the pandemic - the larger the book the more statistically likely / certain that is.

[drleon] 24/3/2021 11:23

The pessimists are coming around and warming up on the stock !

[18bt] 24/3/2021 09:57

Deutsche Bank raises JUST target price to 105p from 84p. Hold

[undervaluedassets] 22/3/2021 09:20

Still think that the Annuity book will be looking better and better with longevity coming down due to COVID.

This may only be a tiny part of the whole picture but it will drive sentiment.

And in financial markets sentiment is everything.

[alex4141] 16/3/2021 14:03

ANALYSTS’ VIEWS: “Numis analyst Nick Johnson maintained his buy recommendation and 160p share-price target, highlighting the firm’s ‘significant capital progress’ over the last year and predicting ‘modest upgrades to consensus capital ratio forecasts, which should be positive for driving further improvement in the valuation.’

Shore Capital analyst Alan Devlin, who also has a buy recommendation, pointed to the fact Just Group’s shares – which have doubled since we recommended them last August – are still only valued at half the firm’s tangible book value due to capital concerns. ‘Today’s results will help to continue to build confidence in the firm’s capital position’, he added.”

[18bt] 16/3/2021 11:33

Very interesting chart right at the end of the results labelled additional financial information shows the SII surplus generation for every future year and then netting off TMTP amortisation. Shows signifcant surplus every year even after TMTPs. Dividends look very fundable - but it would be perfectly reasonable to use some surplus to write new business now that the strain is down to 2% and to repay expensive subordinated debt.

[cjac39] 16/3/2021 11:30

I don’t see it at all. They’ve barely made any capital on an underlying basis and have used hedging to derive a positive result. Tmtp unwind has 13 years left and will create ongoing headwinds and given they’ve hedged int rates I wonder how much it can reduce if at all. Happily out of this.

[alex4141] 16/3/2021 10:12

Overall impressive results given the current "climate". Just has achieved the profit growth and reached its capital self-sufficiency goal a year earlier than planned. Finally, we have passed £1 mark in the share price but a long way to go.

[18bt] 16/3/2021 09:44

Getting into the detail:
- The reserve release disclosures are interest. Broadly it backs their business model that ERMs are a very good hedge for annuities. But some net longevity release.
- The adjusted earnings per share seemed to beat market forecasts (18.8p) whereas operating profit didn't. "Non-recurring and project expenditure was £12.7m (2019: £8.3m) and includes preparations for the new insurance accounting standard, IFRS 17, the costs associated with Green Tier 2 bond/concurrent Tier 3 tender, preparations for an internal model change to incorporate the recent regulatory changes and to move PLACL from standard formula to a Group internal model, and a number of smaller project costs." So adjusted PBT looks to be quite a big beat at £250m.
- "We have taken a prudent view to reduce the long term property growth assumption by 50 basis points to 3.3% from 3.8% previously. In updating these assumptions, the Board took into consideration future macro-economic uncertainties including the effect of COVID-19 and Brexit on the UK property market. The strengthening of these assumptions has given rise to a £166m loss, which is the combination of the change in lifetime mortgage asset values and the increase to the value of insurance liabilities from the resulting reduction to the valuation interest rate." That looks quite a big cut in a long term assumption, but then
- "Furthermore, in December 2020, the Group sold a portfolio of lifetime mortgages with accumulated value of £540m. These LTMs were sold at a gain to the IFRS fair value, but, we have foregone the difference in investment yield with the replacement bonds, and hence incurred a £136m pre-tax loss. Over time a proportion is planned to be allocated to new illiquid assets reducing this initial impact.

[jimmyh1] 16/3/2021 08:33

No dividend because they can’t afford it. Excess Own Funds of £1.1bn, but this is supported by £2bn of transitionals that will run off over the next 10 years and £800m of subordinated debt paying a reasonably high coupon. That said, these are better results than I expected and capital self-sufficiency is a key achievement.

[loglorry1] 16/3/2021 07:50

Paying a dividend makes little sense if they can use the capital to write profitable new business.

That said it's always reassuring as a holder to receive a divi.

[cb7] 16/3/2021 07:48

I also hoped that they might have given a 1p final(cost nearer £10m) or at least said that they anticipate divis to return this year (poss with caveats).

[18bt] 16/3/2021 07:39

Seems also to be a major speech by Sam Woods on the future of SII regime out this morning. Might give some pointers for the future.

[18bt] 16/3/2021 07:37

No horrors in results and first look at the risks to capital are very encouraging. It does genuinely now look capital generative which hopefully allows dividends to restart in the current year. I thought they might go for a nominal dividend at the final - afterall .1p only costs c£1m but probably not worth a fight with the PRA until the half year.

[baddeal] 10/3/2021 10:18

L&G results today hold some good read across into just imo

[salver2] 09/3/2021 14:18

Phoenix Group in today’s Times are looking for a 1.5billion acquisition in Zombie insurance -£1.5 billion is about 1.50 a share takeover of Just -reckon they’ll table an offer soon