Just Share Discussion Threads

[18bt] 12/8/2021 06:53

Decent set of results, but disappointing they haven't yet concluded the £475m ERM sale - but they seem confident. Need to look carefully at the EGM they are calling to issued further Tier 1 bonds with potential conversion. They are being hampered by the high levels of debt cost, but if the PRA forced conversion, it's a huge dilution.

Anyway, they have outperformed my L&G-reduced expectations on DB de-risking, so topline growth and capital generation all good.

[whatja] 11/8/2021 18:09

Shares have had a nice run up ahead of results….but good numbers don’t mean much at the moment it seems to be all about sentiment.
Qlt good numbers but shares off 5%
HL good growth numbers, shares down 11%.

I really have no idea which way Just will go tomorrow.
My guess is there will be good capital numbers and positive statements about the strength of the company and opportunities leading to an up day.
However we suspect sales have been poor (deliberately so) so the market may take them down reversing recent gains.

Overall, I think undervalued in the long run, so will hold on for 150+.

[scrapheap] 10/8/2021 16:40

This article makes the point how few such announcements Just has made this year for these DB buy ins.....

hxxps://www.professionalpensions.com/news/4035663/insures-gbp3m-brent-group-pension-liabilities

[18bt] 06/8/2021 09:12

Interestingly, L&G did though say that demand for GIFL (Annuities) was growing and that they are targeting that space as DC pensions grow.

[whatja] 05/8/2021 17:27

Or sales are not that good…..Aviva and LG have both commented on the slow pension risk transfer / DB transfer market.

They may want to focus on capital and its generation…..LG continue to release annuity liabilities due to pandemic impact on longevity risk……..Just will be experiencing the same forces.

Looking for an improved capital position, perhaps a small dividend (maybe just flag resumption for the full year will be enough)

[scrapheap] 02/8/2021 08:27

It is unusual for them not to have made such an update - I'm going to wildly speculate perhaps theres some sort of corporate activity going on which is limiting disclosures...

No evidence at all other than they have said they are open to all options and I've long expected they will be taken out eventually....

[whatja] 31/7/2021 19:49

There is no requirement for a trading update, unless results are out of line with expectations.

Sales are perhaps not the most important financial metric for a company like just where specific underwriting risks can drive changes in capital requirement more than a new deal.

The short term share price is driven by capital generation and he overall capital position, so lower sales may be a good thing to improve the capital position.

Hoping for the improvement to recommence.

[18bt] 31/7/2021 08:24

Interims are scheduled for 12/8. Disappointed that we haven’t had a trading update this year since the finals. PIs are being kept in the dark.

[whatja] 11/7/2021 21:00

Being hurt by falling bond yields….
Must be too much stimulus QE money
inflation should weaken bond prices?

[weemonkey] 02/7/2021 07:47

Yes longevity stats going forwards are surely set to be helpful here whether from deaths caused by COVID or deaths caused by NHS waiting lists (themselves caused by COVID).

recovering strongly now ..

[18bt] 28/6/2021 20:18

Possibly yes, but there could be an excess of 1-5 year cancer deaths in 2024-25. Luckily the actuaries do have 300+ years of decent mortality data.

[whatja] 28/6/2021 20:02

There will also be an element of regression to the historic predicted path.
Periods of excess death will almost certainly be followed by periods of lower deaths than expected.

I predict the NHS will have a fantastic 2023/24 when measuring excess deaths largely because a quite a large number of deaths in 2020/21 would be of people who would have lingered for a few more years. I can hear the politicians claiming a great recovery prior to the next UK election.

[18bt] 14/6/2021 06:39

Whatja -I agree with all that - there will have been some annuitants, especially in the first wave, but it will be a blip. The backlog, especially for cancers may be more significant as they are, unfortunately, are not immediate killers.

[undervaluedassets] 14/6/2021 06:07

Whatja. I thank you for that. very cogent.

I had noticed the longevity trends in the US and Uk were beginning to go down pre covid too. So that is perhaps more relevant here.

But good point well made.

[whatja] 13/6/2021 20:48

Undervalued assets…..re annuities and longevity.

Actuaries are a cautious bunch and while they may recognise the termination of liability n death it takes them along time to realise and follow the data to see if this is permanent.

The most relevant factor is whether the excess deaths attributed to covid are annuitants. With many deaths being attributed to poor living conditions and income inequality these deaths may not be falling on insured lives.

What may be more important is the future impact of the 5m backlog of treatment which may fall to reduce life expectancy of more insured lives.

In short don’t expect huge gains. However the trend in life assurance was already a slowing of increasing longevity, so there may be continuing releases of reserves….on a small scale.

[scrapheap] 08/6/2021 15:03

Not heard anything myself but then again not much from Just BDM other than chasing for 'updates' on enhanced GIFL quotes!

[18bt] 07/6/2021 11:55

Interestingly, I believe JUST is getting some increased interest in its Drawdown GIFL/SLI (Secure Lifetime Income = SLI = Annuity) - which allows part of a SIPP in draw down to be used to fund a GIFL, providing security for the DC pension holder. Novia have put it on their SIPP platform see and I am told that 2 more platforms are in discussion.
It is hosted by Spire Platform Solutions Interestingly Spire PS shows another client to be Dunstan Thomas (which has a shareholding) and which is a major SIPP administrator and now owned by Curtis Banks. In total CB has 82,000 SIPP accounts including DT. JUST owns 33% of SPS according to the accounts. Spire Financial has other products on the Nucleus Platform, just acquired by James Hay, an even bigger SIPP administrator. I'm joining dots, but James Hay/Nucleus could well be the second platform. Can anyone confirm or know otherwise?

[undervaluedassets] 24/5/2021 14:00

Right I get it "slammed" as in recommended. Interesting idea by private investors.

I like piworld.

By the by. Anyone got any insight on the annuities business? One assumes that this has done well seeing as longevity has dropped by about a year due to the pandemic.

Grisly thought I know but one has to be pragmatic.

[tomps2] 21/5/2021 08:57

Just (JUST) was ‘slammed’ by Dee O’Hare in the Stockopedia/piworld Stockslam held on Wednesday 19th May. Listen to Dee's pitch at 38m45s

Video:

Podcast:

[whatja] 18/5/2021 09:02

What will Phoenix do with the 500m it gets for its European units?

[undervaluedassets] 17/5/2021 14:43

inflation neutral..

These companies are prices setters not price takers

[whatja] 11/5/2021 13:02

Disappointed there was no trading update..however last year there may have been good reason to try to reassure the markets. This year no such worries about continued existence. However we are left uncertain of the sales performance of the company...overall this may not matter very much if the back book is needing less capital.
Credit looks like it is improving
House prices are up, by a lot more than inflation so the no negative equity guarantee should be a lot less expensive.

And the share price has fallen by much less than the market....still looking positive.

[18bt] 11/5/2021 08:44

A bit odd they have put out no AGM statement; normally they do say something. And the calendar seems to have been taken off the IR section of the web-site.