Just Share Discussion Threads

[18bt] 03/3/2021 17:46

Results now 16/3. I wouldn't read too much into that - a PwC partner I was speaking to last week reckonned 20% of companies were doing the same.

[blackbear] 01/3/2021 16:07

probably in takeover talks 150 is fair.

[fullbreakfast] 01/3/2021 15:56

Peel Hunt have a target of 120p as of 8th February. The price does seem to be showing signs of life...

I hold these but do worry a bit about the bond exposure.

[cb7] 01/3/2021 14:03

that's good to hear, so is the shareprice

[18bt] 01/3/2021 11:46

Perky this morning.

[undervaluedassets] 24/2/2021 17:37

The last year has knocked a year off male longevity in the US.

I am sure that the same thing will have occurred here.

[whatja] 24/2/2021 16:15

It is rare that regulatory reviews of capital regimes require less capital, but the SII review may be one that changes how capital can be deployed. Whether green infrastructure will be given a privileged status is one area that will be of interest, matching adjustment may be an area that can be simplified and some better rules found.

As 18BT notes the discount rate is increasing but likely to be offset by losses on mark to market or model corporate debt. Just has published quite detailed analysis of its debt assets which like many have experienced downgrades but low default rates which perhaps matters more in the real world.

Credit losses are the canary in the coal mine for insurers of all descriptions. If the govt manages to stave off mass defaults then Just and others will improve their share price.

[18bt] 24/2/2021 07:19

Rise in UK Gilt yields should be making GIFL a little more attractive and increasing the discount rate on old liabilities. 20 year yield now up above 1.2%, up from 0.8% a few weeks ago. The downside will be paper losses on corporate bonds, but no obvious increase in the default rate (yet). Widening credit spreads is a real risk as world economies emerge from COVID.

[18bt] 19/2/2021 09:18

Treasury Review of SII closes next week and the ABI is publishing its views next week.

This from Anna Sweeney at the PRA last week needs to be taken into account for the long term future for JUST: "Tailoring will mean reforms to specific aspects of the regime that are not well-designed or imperfectly calibrated for the UK, and are currently distorting incentives and behaviour. The risk margin is probably the best known example. The concept – a margin over best estimate of liabilities so that they are held on the regulatory balance sheet at an estimate of their transfer value – is sound. But in its current implementation the output of the risk margin formula is too sensitive to interest ratesfootnote [2], and when rates are low it is higher than it need be to fulfil its purpose. And this has driven a misallocation of capital, away from longevity risk, a misallocation which is relentlessly increasing as volumes of business not covered by transitional measures grow."

Given JUST's major insurance risk is longevity, whatever the Treasury decides should have significant long term implications. It could reduce the capital strain for writing long term longevity risk.

[18bt] 17/2/2021 10:36

LOL - perhaps the thesis is slightly more accurate...

[salver2] 17/2/2021 09:45

Research I think is not the right word -guess work after the share has risen 50 percent after their last bad guess

[18bt] 17/2/2021 09:32

Morgan Stanley has raised its target price to 91p from 58p. That's quite a positive turn around. Anyone got acess to their research?

[18bt] 17/2/2021 09:29

Attempting another assault on the 86.33p level which has been the peak since March 2019

[18bt] 11/2/2021 12:43

Continued resistance around 85p. I'll be wtahcing to see if it consolidates around 77- 80p and then makes a fresh assault on the resistance level.

[camerongd53] 10/2/2021 17:05

The Investors Chronicle featured Just Group in it its Jan 28 issue as a Medium term Medium risk Value buy @78.8p. I agree with their views especially that the company business model is complex.
I was both surprised and disappointed that the price did not rise on this tip initially, possibly mainly due to the complexity issues.
The share price has recently risen by near 10% an long may it continue to rise as I am sitting on a large loss. Investors may be taking their time to digest the tip

[whatja] 08/2/2021 20:30

The NAV should be more than 200, so PH is targeting 60%.
I think this is a good target for 2021 with progression to 150 in 2022 as the capital position improves and the company can retain more of its future earnings. At the moment it is buying expensive reinsurance to improve capital....this makes it more secure and more investible and is a virtuous circle at the moment.

[rikreschem] 08/2/2021 13:02

(Sharecast News) - Broker Peel Hunt initiated coverage of Just Group on Monday with a 'buy' rating and 120p price target.

"Just is at the tail end of repairing a strained capital structure," Peel said. "The process is now helping rebuild new business sales, which underpin future cash flow."

Meanwhile, it noted the share price has fallen well below the intrinsic value of the company's in-force annuity book.

"Whilst the cash is still trapped, hence for now no dividends, the company trades at 0.4x SII Tier I NAV, well below the 0.7-0.8x of listed closed-book Life insurers. We believe this is an opportune moment to buy into a depressed valuation."

At 0955 GMT, the shares were up 5.6% at 84.10p

[18bt] 08/2/2021 10:38

Peel Hunt have just initiated coverage with a Buy TP120p, which probably accounts for the share price increase. But don't have access to the thesis.

[alex4141] 01/2/2021 09:24

Insightful piece on unjust valuations of JUST:

FYI: "Earlier this month, RBC hosted a call with Just chief financial officer Andy Parsons, in which he was asked why the company had not yet been bought. “We are open to conversations from interested parties and conversations have happened,” Mr Parsons reportedly said. “All we can do is to focus on ourselves – making our business better will increase the appeal to others.” RBC took this to mean that interested parties will need to bid closer to 200p for a sale to be considered, although a Just spokesperson declined to expand beyond chief executive David Richardson’s comments that 2021 had started “with increased confidence”.

[18bt] 31/1/2021 10:25

No but Blackstone has just sold c30% of Rothesay for cash to GIC and Mass Mutual at NAV, so things do happen. I still think a breakup deal is possible with someone buying the closed Partnership Life for cash and someone else (possibly PE) buying the live book. Bain/LV is an example of that.

[whatja] 30/1/2021 09:06

I could see an all share merger if PIC or Rothesay wanted to get a public listing.
A cash bid is v rare in this industry as it is capital leaving the combined entity and few have enough surplus capital.

[18bt] 28/1/2021 18:20

One of the main tips in the IC tomorrow, both on discount to NAV and as a potential take-over target.

[undervaluedassets] 27/1/2021 11:36

It is a grim fact that Britain's pension black holes will be being helped by the pandemic as some of those obligations will have disappeared with the death of the policyholder.

same applies to annuities

[18bt] 25/1/2021 09:40

Deutsche have raised JUST share price target to 84 from 80p. Still a hold. Every little helps.

[18bt] 21/1/2021 15:14

Credit Suisse selling c1% which poss accounts for slight weakness since the update. Encouragin that the slight weakness hasn't lasted too long.