Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 18/4/2024 11:41

Based on the fundamentals, if you're investing for where the shareprice could potentially be in 2-3 years, rather than trading the stock, whether you pay 25p, 27p or 29p today for a holding is likely to prove largely irrelevant.

AIMHO/DYOR


Standard Chartered Says Peak Oil Demand Is Not Imminent - Oilprice.com

'....The EIA is the most bullish on long-term oil demand, and has predicted a demand peak will come in 2050 while the OPEC Secretariat sees it coming five years earlier.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has predicted global oil demand will hit 110.2 mb/d in 2030 and increase further to 113.5 mb/d in 2035. However, the commodity experts have not projected a demand peak beyond the end of their modeling horizon in 2035.

According to StanChart, a structural long-term peak is very unlikely within 10 years despite a high probability of cyclical downturns over the period. StanChart has argued that the current gulf between demand views creates significant investment uncertainty that’s likely to force longer-term prices higher.

....In other words, the energy agencies appear to agree that an oil demand peak is nowhere on the horizon.

....The energy sector has been a standout performer in the current year, managing a 15.8% return in the year-to-date, the second highest amongst 11 U.S. market sectors. Oil and gas stocks remain among the least shorted. Last month, average short interest across energy stocks in the S&P 500 index was 2.56% of shares floating at the end of the month.'

[nigelpm] 18/4/2024 10:37

Unlucky - poor timing.

[upwego] 17/4/2024 20:07

ive topped up today :)

[mrscruff] 17/4/2024 13:19

Its game of waiting for net selling to be done and we can move up. Time and volume is a better indicator of where the bottom could be rather than any other factor. It think JSE are in a much stronger position, more diversified and less likely to have technical issues.

I hear gas prices in Asia are going up.

Edit: I have bough back in here again for a turnaround play.

[premium beeks] 16/4/2024 21:39

I reckon that's a worked sell that held things down all day, but hey ho

[tom111] 16/4/2024 19:02

Someone likes us with that 411,500 buy at the end of play

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 16/4/2024 17:46

Thank you for that summary.

[yasx] 16/4/2024 10:44

The Co. has disappointed on various fronts over the past couple of years - the market wants to see evidence of delivery not just expressions of optimism. If it is shown that Akatara is all but done and the RBL redetermination is complete and favourable and provided there are no further skeletons from Montara then a re-rate will happen.

Some bought on resumption at or around 26p and have probably taken a quick profit. It happens. But, those who are in for the bigger picture will sit tight.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 16/4/2024 10:38

Why is the market not buying the recovery case?

[neo26] 16/4/2024 09:32

Few small buys back up. :)Jse must be producing close to 16kbopd of oil now.Its massively undervalued.Once they have akatara up and running at full capacity it will be over 20kboepd.

[nigelpm] 16/4/2024 09:24

Some key moments coming up this month but they do need to happen. Reminder:

* RBL confirmation of redetermination
* Annual results
* Progress/completion of Akatara

[fardels bear] 16/4/2024 09:20

Even cheaper now

[neo26] 15/4/2024 16:13

End of jan akatara was complete by 93%.First gas is expected in q2. This co is cheap

[mount teide] 15/4/2024 15:23

Bloomberg's commodity expert Javier Blas outlines a few conclusions for energy markets following the Iranian attack on Israel and the hijacking of a containership in the Persian Gulf.

Javier Blas: 10 Things Oil Traders Need to Know About Iran's Attack on Israel - Bloomberg/Zero Hedge

1 - From a purely physical standpoint, nothing has changed in the world of oil. Middle Eastern crude is flowing into the global economy unimpeded, and the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important energy chokepoint, remains open to shipping. Put simply: there's no oil shortage.

2 - The risk of a future disruption has increased. It would be naïve to say the Middle East looks today exactly as it did last week; a lot did change. I don't think it was a purely symbolic attack. Even though telegraphed well in advance, Iran launched about 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles, with the clear aim of overwhelming Israel's defences. The options market, via deep out-of-the-money call contracts, should reflect the higher risks.

3 - Iran appears to have aimed for an escalation to-deescalate, rather than opening the first chapter of a regional war. Even well before the drones and missiles reached Israel, Tehran indicated the attack was a one-off "legitimate defense" after the Israeli bombing of its embassy in Syria: "The matter can be deemed concluded." If Israel considers that its response, bringing America and several Arab nations alongside to neutralize almost all the incoming bombs, was akin to a strategic victory, then the region returns to its precarious status quo. If so, headline oil prices don't need to rally. Instead, the risk will be reflected better via the options market.

4 - Putting aside geopolitics, oil supply and demand fundamentals look healthy. Even the most bearish forecast for oil demand suggests consumption growth in 2024 will match the historical annual average of 1.2 million barrels a day. The bullish forecasts are for much higher growth, in the 1.5-to-1.9 million barrels a day range. On the supply side, a series of glitches have reduced production this year, particularly of US shale oil. As a result, global oil inventories, which typically increase in the first half of the year, have remained unchanged. Unless OPEC+ increases production soon, stockpiles will drop in the second half of the year.

5 - OPEC+ is keeping the market tight. Despite oil prices well above $80, it decided in late March to roll over its first-quarter output cuts into the second quarter. My expectation is that the group will open the taps at its next meeting, scheduled for June 1. In its last monthly oil report, the cartel noted on April 11 that the "robust oil demand outlook for the summer warrants careful market monitoring" – the kind of preparatory language ahead of an output hike.

6 - How OPEC+ increases production would be as important as the hike itself. I expect the group to hike output slowly, leaving its options open. Rather than pre-announcing a series of production increases, it could instead opt to call monthly meetings, keeping the market guessing whether it would add enough crude.

7 - Unless Israel and Iran engage in tit-for-tat attacks that disrupt oil flows, OPEC+ has more than enough spare production capacity to control a price rally. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq are keeping about 5 million barrels of day out of the market – equal to about 5% of the world's demand, and more than what Iran itself produces.

8 - Barring a regional war, the biggest oil supply risk is political. President Joe Biden has promised a "diplomatic" response to the Iranian attacks. Since he was inaugurated in 2021, Biden has all but allowed Iran to increase its oil output, relaxing the enforcement of US sanctions on Tehran. In March, Iranian oil output hit a five-year high of 3.25 million barrels a day, up from 2.1 million in January 2021. If Biden resumes enforcing the sanctions, it could tighten the market significantly unless OPEC+ offsets the impact. I'm dubious Biden would take that course of action in an election year.

9 - Russia stands to win. Thanks to a tight oil market, Moscow is already selling its crude at $75 a barrel, well above the Group of Seven cap of $60 a barrel. If Washington enforces sanctions against Iran, it could create space for Russia's own sanctioned barrels to both win market share and achieve even higher prices. One of the reasons why the White House turned a blind eye to Iranian oil exports is because its priority was to hurt Russia. Higher Iranian production was the unsaid — and unrecognized — cost of that policy. Now Washington needs to reconsider what's its biggest concern.

10 - The risk that the White House would tap the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve later this year has increased notably. Even if half the size it was a decade ago, the stockpile of about 365 million barrels is still a formidable force. Biden can use the cover of rising tension in the Middle East to justify its use and try to push oil prices down toward $80 a barrel if OPEC+ decides it's happy letting them rise to $99.99, or even beyond.

All in all, higher crude prices are terrible news for President Biden's reelection odds as inflation reaccelerates. We explained to readers in early March that the probability was rising that America's enemies would 'weaponize crude' against the US to trigger the next financial shock. '

[nigelpm] 15/4/2024 11:11

That would be good. Keep this focused on Jadestone.

[premium beeks] 15/4/2024 11:01

Take the politics elsewhere eh?

[neo26] 15/4/2024 11:00

Iran is not a pariah state, israelnis the pariah state.

[premium beeks] 15/4/2024 08:20

Nice start to the week

[tim000] 14/4/2024 17:02

Yes, agree with all that. There is a lot of pressure on Netanyahu coming from all left wing sources to agree a ceasefire and get the hostages home - The Times of Israel is extremely anti Netanyahu. But as you say, there are probably very few left alive and the cost of any deal would be far too high. It’s clear Hamas’ leadership in Qatar etc are fearful of being assassinated and are losing the war.

[fireplace22] 14/4/2024 16:54

By all accounts Iran is a pariah amongst most Arab countries and the attack by Hamas was to prevent further detente with the likes of Saudi Arabia - after Israel went into to Gaza, the Saudis could hardly be seen to identify with Israel. Noticeable that Jordanian forces downed Irani missiles last night.
A ceasefire is probably impossible as it would require the release of hostages, most of whom are unfortunately probably now dead.

[fireplace22] 14/4/2024 16:34

Israel made the decision to attack Iran early Sunday morning, but that plan was canceled after a phone call between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden, The New York Times reported, citing US officials.

The officials noted that Biden told Israel that its defense against the barrage of Iranian drones and missiles was "a major strategic victory" and that Israeli retaliation wasn't needed, The New York Times reported.

This is a developing story.

[tim000] 14/4/2024 16:13

I’ve increased my JSE holding by a third this week, looks far too cheap given the impending growth of production.

[tim000] 14/4/2024 16:12

MT, what’s new I think is the joining of forces between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, who despise western values; the predominant use of the dollar in commodities markets in which they trade; and the use of NATO to thwart their imperialist expansion plans. As you say, this has happened exactly because they see enfeebled leadership throughout the west - with more money being spent on woke agendas than on defence. As authoritarian dictatorships, they can play the long game - as Putin is doing in Ukraine, slowly grinding down the west’s will to engage in warfare. China is no doubt looking at pursuing a similar strategy wrt Taiwan. I don’t see this power struggle easing anytime soon, suggesting an oil premium will continue perhaps indefinitely.

[mount teide] 14/4/2024 15:24

To the Iranian's and their proxies Biden's one word "don't" proved about as effective as Obama's "red line in the sand" in Syria, which they immediately stepped over and laughed in his face. Likewise, within a few days of Biden lecturing the Iranians, their leadership launch 300 drones and missiles at Israel.

Whatever the left may think of Trump he managed to keep the Iranians, Russians, Chinese and North Koreans from launching wars during his 4 years in the White House.

Heightened political tension and conflict in the Middle East has historically led to oil market traders building in a price premium, until cooler heads prevail.