Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[yasx] 06/4/2024 07:53

cxx,

I agree - operating in this territory is becoming more restrictive and being exposed to surprise shocks could prove existential.

[xxx] 06/4/2024 05:38

I am currently in Australia.
There are several negatives to buying more assets in Austaralia.

The cost base is ridiculously high, both for labour and equipment.eg getting a mechanic to work on your car is £60ph and they are very low productivity workers [slow].

The regulator has become much more demanding. Cooper Energy bought some acreage + infrastructure from Beach for a nominal sum. Several years later the regulator said they wanted more decom work done than Beach had done even though this had been signed off by the regulator at the time, requiring the platform legs removed, despite people noting that they form a natural reef. Cost $100m so far and counting

In addition to all of this, green coalitions are finding and getting indigenous people to complain [see Barossa project]. The subsequent regulatory reviews and legal challenges lead to delays and massively increased costs.Look at NZ for the direction of travel.

Remember Jadestone are proposing further work on the fields, so cultural and environmental approvals, equipment and labour would be very pertinent issues.

For a foreign company like Jadestone, which has a blotted copy book, buying more assets in Australia is simply wrong, no matter the price.

On the other hand Indonesia is running short of gas as is the Phillipines...

[tom111] 05/4/2024 21:25

If the assets are that good why would we be the preferred bidder considering we are the weaker of the three bidders unless ofcourse we land ourselves with a load of debt

[yasx] 05/4/2024 20:48

Anyway, no point in trying to figure out what might happen next - we will see if they are preferred for the deal and, if so, what the terms are.

[yasx] 05/4/2024 20:47

TGM,

Assets with huge decomm liabilities and likely to be plagued by issues are only cheap if you look at the short term - in the longer term they can end up proving costly, as JSE is starting to learn with Montara. Who knows where it will end where that is concerned.

[yasx] 05/4/2024 20:45

34Aads,

That is true - however, given the scale of the deal (and the risk that any funding mechanism would undoubtedly attach) would leave no room for error even if they were to secure it. What PB has shown with Montara is effective planning, operational excellence and assessing financial risk are not his strong points.

JSE is high risk/high reward, with or without the proposed RTO deal. I am heavily long but not blind to the risks.

[34adsaddsa] 05/4/2024 19:13

Foreseeing future Montara issues would be a reason to go for the transaction.

It's so big that it would make Montara irrelevant. The company would live or die with the new asset.

[the_gold_mine] 05/4/2024 19:06

I would think the best person to assess the deal would be Paul Blakely given his decades of experience in that area. Recent operational problems with one asset do not detract from Blakelys excellent track record of sniffing out high quality assets on the cheap.

[yasx] 05/4/2024 18:46

I reckon we have not heard the last of Montara 'issues' - until Ak. is properly set up and motoring, any impact from Montara is potentially too significant for the Co. to absorb, at least as far as current shareholders are concerned. It may be a blessing in disguise if they do not succeed with the reverse takeover since they have demonstrated they do not have a good handle on how to navigate a financially stretched situation and the cause of the same. A much larger transaction of the type contemplated seems a step too far.

[fardels bear] 05/4/2024 15:45

He's something of a pessimist

[yasx] 05/4/2024 15:26

Montara really is such a mess. With hindsight, Jadestone must regret ever getting involved with it.

[fardels bear] 05/4/2024 14:52

Not necessarily. You can shoot the tw*t from behind a bush when he's not expecting it.

[ashkv] 03/4/2024 08:41

Hedged barrels if I recall are between 7,000-8,000 boe/d for the next few quarters - I have assumed all CWLH and Penmal production to be hedged (in excess of hedged barrels).
 
CWLH (Brent? No mention of adj in H1 23 Results) 4,400 $75.00 $120,450,000
PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) 6,500 $78.50 $186,241,250

Fardels Bear2 Apr '24 - 15:52 - 21208 of 21210
0 2 0
Hedges?

[ashkv] 03/4/2024 08:39

Lets wait for Penmal production figures.

Stag has been around 2500 boe/d for the past few years and has been guided at that figure by management in January 2024

[pughman] 02/4/2024 16:13

The PM figure is too high, with the increasing water cut from the infills and Stag will fall a lot short of 2500 without another costly infill.

[ashkv] 02/4/2024 15:02

Jadestone Energy 2024 Revenue Forecast at Brent = $90
Brent $1 increase corresponding JSE 2024 Revenue uplift $4,148,590

MONTARA (H1 23 Premium to Brent $1.5) 5,500 $91.50 $183,686,250
STAG (H1 23 Premium to Brent $16) 2,500 $106.50 $97,181,250
CWLH (Brent? No mention of adj in H1 23 Results) 4,400 $75.00 $120,450,000
PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) 6,500 $78.50 $186,241,250
SINPHUHORM (Reported as Dividend for JSE Share) 1,500 ??? using same Boe rate as Akatara $17,169,600
AKATARA (6,000 Boe/d Gas From H2 2024) 3,000 US$5.6/MMBtu or US$31.36 per Boe $34,339,200(Akatara conservative estimate as assuming production is all gas with no LPG or Condensates)

Total JSE Projected Revenue for 2024 at an Average Brent price of US$90 = $639,067,550

[tom111] 02/4/2024 09:58

JSE must be coining it atm with oil nearing $90.So many issues going on atm there is every reason to believe it will be at this level for sometime to come.

[tom111] 29/3/2024 17:04

Never wanted this deal to go through it seems more trouble than its worth and probably incur a large amount of debt as well. What if they have problems like Montana had i dread to think.As MT rightly says SE Asia seems the future.

[mount teide] 29/3/2024 12:59

The Australian Offshore Industry's unions & workers seem to be relatively cultured and sophisticated compared to their port industry namesakes - many of whose limited and highly colourful vocabulary would put a New York mob boss to shame.

Can remember a company containership getting its loading delayed in Sydney for 2hrs because some of the dockers refused to return from their lunch break ashore, until they had finished a big money game of poker in the canteen. `Even the UK dockers when employed under the Dock labour Scheme would not have had the nerve to pull that stunt!

When we forwarded an official complaint to the Port Manager, he came on board and just threw his hands in the air and said to the Chief Officer "What do you expect me to do?.....You know what they're like mate, they take more f'ing notice of their wives than they do me!" And then turned around and went back ashore to his office!

I would prefer Jadestone to concentrate their future M&A activity on Operatorship type deals in SE Asia(Malaysia in particular), and restrict any further Australian deals to just attractively priced, high quality non operated shareholdings - like the recent acquisition of a larger chunk of the CWLH fields.....as this would enable us to leave the interaction with the Offshore Regulator and, contract negotiations with the heavily unionised Australian workforce to deep pocketed operators like Woodside, Shell, BP and Santos.

[sea7] 29/3/2024 11:12

yep - there are a couple of other mentions for jadestone on that site, dated in January, however, woodside do really get some stick

[fireplace22] 29/3/2024 11:02

Sounds about as welcoming as the UK although the unions here may be a force for sanity if only to retain their members jobs. In Aus it seems everyone is against the oilers.