Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[1347] 24/11/2022 11:35

Seems always be the case with JLP, difficult to figure out what they are selling at what price and what the costs are. Why is it always so convoluted, they should just say we are selling this much of x at average price of y and the average cost is z. However from their last RNS they said:

"The Company will initially target the production of 50 tonnes of contained cobalt metal which is the equivalent of approximately 220 tonnes of final product, before ramping up to the 1 200 tonnes of contained cobalt metal annual capacity, which equates to 5 280 tonnes of final produce"

So by my calcs 50/220 is the cobalt ratio, i.e. about 23% is actual cobalt.

As for the Warrants, only one holder is out, I calculate 35,859,164 are left at 6.12 p. I have no idea why the 7,818,750 Warrants at 4.0 p weren't exercised (were they conditional on something?) as according to the last AR they were due to expire on 19th November 2022, it would have been at least 6 p profit per exercised share, easy money.

[tonyevo256] 24/11/2022 10:44

Those shares are being forward sold hence the current weakness in the share price .I don't think the admission date will have any real significance.

[seagreen] 24/11/2022 10:21

sleveen...just seems to be large selling when the warrants are exercised...no real point in exercising them just to hold..no idea mind.

I am a big fan of cobalt its the warrants that is preventing me from going long but then I sold in the 2p/3p range so WTFDIK still kicking myself

[the bull] 24/11/2022 10:19

if you want some multibag fun, prem is where you want some exposure

[the bull] 24/11/2022 10:18

15p deme, you must be needing the money to think about bailing for that. I am pretty sure by this time next year we will be back above 20p but 50p+ will be possible but several years down the line. After being here so long, you don't want to be checking back in and seeing you left one helluva lot on the table

[tightfist] 24/11/2022 10:15

Far more concerning is Jeremy's two-stage draconian reduction in CGT allowance, which potentially affects virtually all holders and all shares outside an ISA over the next 18 months

[tightfist] 24/11/2022 10:05

billy, FYI since the year-end there have been 6 RNS’s notifying the exercise in total of 32.9m Warrants. Of the outstanding Warrants, I have not looked at how many are in-the-money. Maybe someone else has. According to my calcs, the resulting overhang is only 0.7% maximum - not a big deal IMO. About 8 days typical daily trading volume IF they were all sold immediately in the market.

[sb] 24/11/2022 09:53

Like a bad smell Deme appears....

[sleveen] 24/11/2022 09:34

billy

Agree that particular holder of 6.5p warrants has exercised.

I don't think the obsession is the warrants themselves more what happens to those warrants once exercised ie sold or held.

[billyboy2fromiii] 24/11/2022 09:16

Shev. I agree with you. I do not get this obsession with outstanding warrants being exercised. The warrants are already known about, they are stated in the Annual Report and they WILL (I would expect) all be exercised as they are all "in the money". These warrants helped us get to where we are now. BB2

[billyboy2fromiii] 24/11/2022 09:11

sleveen, your comment is not actually correct. This individual warrant holder has no further warrants outstanding.... However, as per the Annual Report there were (as at last practical date prior to annual report date) there were 49m warrants outstanding at 6.12p. This RNS does not state that ALL of these 49m 6.12p warrants have been exercised. I have not had time to go over all warrant RNS since annual report to confirm how many of these 49m have now been exercised and this how many remain. I will have a look later. BB2.

[frogkid] 24/11/2022 09:10

I expected a retrace on commodities after the Kung Flu news coming out of China

[pshevlin] 24/11/2022 09:03

After the 6.5p warrants there are only a very few left and some of them at higher than the current share price Time to stop worrying about them and concentrate on revenue.

[frogkid] 24/11/2022 09:00

Until the next lot Mr Singh!

[sleveen] 24/11/2022 09:00

seagreen, 6.5p warrants have ben exercised into shares @6.5p.

What happens to the 6.5p shares is the issue ie sell or hold.

[lights out] 24/11/2022 08:58

Hard to tell. Maybe one of the warrant holders are done.

[frogkid] 24/11/2022 08:56

Jeez, I'm going back to bed already.

[billyboy2fromiii] 24/11/2022 08:56

Lights Out, We are on the same page on this. However, as per my last post, WHI refer to us receiving approx 80% ($52,000 x 80% = $41,600) of contained cobalt price rather than 100% ($52,000). BB2.

[seagreen] 24/11/2022 08:55

Its the warrants that are being exercised and sold that is off putting....do they mean this warrant holder is fully exercised or all warrant holders...anyone done a reconciliation?

[kennyp52] 24/11/2022 08:55

Billyboy .. thanks .. mrtennessee …. seems you are totally misguided ?

[pshevlin] 24/11/2022 08:54

Anyone thinking of accepting 15p as a buyout must be crazy.

[billyboy2fromiii] 24/11/2022 08:49

Chozza,this is an extract from the WHI Broker note dated 9th Dec 21............ We expect cobalt from the Kitwe tails to be recovered at Leopard as a cobalt hydroxide
at a rate of 5kt/year (~1.6kt Co contained) and paid at 80% of the contained cobalt price.......... So applying this metric (assuming WHI know more than me and you) to the RNS dated; 5,280 t of our final product will contain approx 1,200 t of contained cobalt which WHI expect us to receive 80% of contained cobalt price ($52,000 x 80%) so approx $41,600. So annual revenue 1,200 t x $41,600 = $49.92m. Profit/Earnings (45% margin) = $22.46m. For 22/23, assuming production of 550(50D22, 50J23, 50F23, 100M23, 100A23,100M23, 100J23)of 550 t x $41,600 x 45% = $10.29m earnings (to be offset against copper cost). Obviously, the payment terms will mean that not all 22/23 production revenues will actually be received before end of June 23 and will fall into 23/24 year. Just my thoughts, BB2.

[lights out] 24/11/2022 08:41

based on ramped up rate of 5280 tpa CoCo3 product ( each ton containing 0.227t Co ) or 1200tpa Co pa and the 12000tpa copper cathode production. At current spot price of cobalt metal ( ~ $50,000/ton ) :-
Sable 23% cobalt carbonate Revenue = 5280 x $11350/t or $59.9 million approx. per full year rate.
Earnings @ 45% production margin = $ 27 million approx ( 5280 x $5108/t ).
By-product subsidy on 12000tons of copper production = $2248 per ton copper.

[mrsingh1] 24/11/2022 08:39

'Following the exercise of the Warrant Shares the warrant holder holds no further warrants'.... are we done?

[sleveen] 24/11/2022 08:35

mrt

yes indeed but one caveat margins would improve if Co increased in price.