Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[robers98] 08/9/2020 14:32

Platinum has good lockdown with supply deficit set to widen in 2020, says WPIC

PLATINUM has had a good lockdown, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) which said on Tuesday demand for the metal outstripped supply in the second quarter.

As a result, a supply deficit for 2020 previously forecast by the council is expected to widen to some 336,000 ounces from 247,000 oz.

The WPIC also said that the Covid-19 pandemic had accelerated the adoption of the hydrogen economy in which platinum is positioned to play a prominent role.

[robers98] 08/9/2020 14:31

JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – The hydrogen economy is elevating platinum as a precious metal with long-term store of value, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said today.

The latest edition of WPIC’s Platinum Quarterly states that an evolving global sea-change in the environment debate may also be at play in changing investor sentiment towards platinum, significantly bolstering platinum’s green and precious metal credentials.

Platinum’s role in unlocking the hydrogen economy heralds for it a robust basis as a long-term store of value. With the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic depleting climate change funding, there has been growing impetus from China, Japan, South Korea, the EU and the US to prioritise the ‘hydrogen economy’ in cost-effectively driving forward the green agenda.

On July 8, the EU implemented its hydrogen strategy, highlighting the crucial role hydrogen will play in decarbonising industry, transport, power generation and buildings across Europe. As increasing numbers of national governments recognise that the use of hydrogen as a fuel for primary power and transportation is one of the most cost-effective and sustainable routes to a better climate future, platinum’s key catalytic role to help facilitate the hydrogen economy is becoming known. Not only is platinum key to the generation of green hydrogen, but it is also used in fuel cells for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). As the hydrogen economy and the FCEV market grow, it will create significant demand for platinum.

[plat hunter] 08/9/2020 14:17

Can't get an online buy quote

[goingforarun] 08/9/2020 13:39

Would that put GLR in play?

[bullster] 08/9/2020 12:45

.
.

MOVE OVER COPPER, HERE COMES ZINC !

Copper concentrate from Roan and Elephant will incur Jubilee about a 50% cost to purchase penalty plus a further transport penalty. Having said that, W.H.Ireland do pencil in a very respectable "start up" earnings figure of $1/lb to $3/lb total costs figure, which will improve.

Zinc on the other hand, can't be produced in isolation, lead and vanadium have to come along also. To what level the lead and vanadium come along at depends on the flowsheet, but make no mistake, a tri-metal operation gives good economies.
A lesser payment to our royaltee, coupled with tailings on the doorstep, and tri-metal economies, give the zinc side of the business some glaring advantages.

Won't be long now.

.
.

[sharenotes] 08/9/2020 11:54

Bullster,

Been looking at the underlying chemistry – wow, those pesky electrons surely do make the subject matter intriguing. I bet Leon and his team are kept bemused!

[bullster] 08/9/2020 11:46

.
.

Just found a historic price on Youtube that i am happy to go along with.

$135/t 40-42% cif

Deduct $1.52/t which comes to $133.48/t cost of sale.

If we take W.H.Ireland long term projection of $175/t

That should give Jubilee $41.52/t earnings, compared to $1.52/t for our H1/2020 figure.

450,000 t x $41.52/t = $18,684,000 earnings/year (example)

BIG JUMP COMMING !

What's todays price of ch.c.?

.
.

[sharenotes] 08/9/2020 11:43

alwaysevolving,

AAU is a solid little company, no doubt, and I continue to hold. Nevertheless, I recently entered ‘puntsville217; with a rotation into KEFI - going well at the moment but could so easily end in tears!

[sharenotes] 08/9/2020 11:22

When you look at the PM graphs above (the recent green trace) you can postulate an underlying software signature. That is, the price is probably being driven by some code, somewhere. No matter how much of a genius (or group) came up with the original specification, it eventually boils down to a set of programmers generating either routines and/or developing AI structures (probably both). Either way, these individuals will have a good understanding when ‘events’ will happen. Call it perks of the job, but I would imagine some can make a tidy sum simply from the knowledge acquired.

[lostabillion] 08/9/2020 11:19

GSG, that’s why I keep on and on accumulating. When the penny drops the share price will soar.

[gsg] 08/9/2020 11:13

Bullster. No worries.

Amazing that the broker reckons if chrome gets back to 2016/17 levels, Jubilee will be making more from chrome ($200m pa) than from PGM's. And at the moment its in there for nothing.

[bullster] 08/9/2020 10:54

.
.

GSG,

Much appreciated, i'll start by looking through the broker notes you mention.
Yes, it's difficult getting data for chrome concentrate, without subscribing, it's a pain !

.
.

[gsg] 08/9/2020 10:30

WH Ireland have their long term metallurgical chrome price projection set at $175/t.

[lostabillion] 08/9/2020 10:24

Great work Bullster.

[bullster] 08/9/2020 10:21

.
.

continuing on......

I have been going over the six month figures for Jan - June/2020 which was RNS'd.
The earnings we gained from chrome concentrate alone, when divided by the amount of chrome we sold, comes out at $1.52 per tonne.

If i can acquire what the average price of the aforesaid grade, over that six month period, any increase can be added to the $1.52/t as extra earnings.

.
.

[gsg] 08/9/2020 10:04

Bullster.

The only datasets on chrome is by subscription to specialists sites such as Fastmarkets.

On the WH Ireland broker note there is a graph showing recent metallurgical chrome prices in US$ CIF which may help. (page 22).

Jubilee produce metallurgical grade, however the fine chrome capability will allow them to produce the higher grade concentrates with the higher premiums.

[gsg] 08/9/2020 09:42

The fact that Jubilee have maintained a profitable chrome business and expanded their chrome position whilst the big players are suffering this amount of financial pain is testament to Jubilee's management. For Merafe to swing into a six month loss, greater than its market capitalisation shows how grim the chrome market has been.



Merafe swings into a loss as Covid-19 weakens steel demand

The group wrote down its assets in the six months to end-June as the pandemic weighed on ferrochrome prices and production

08 SEPTEMBER 2020 -

Merafe Resources, the junior empowerment partner in a chrome joint venture with Glencore, has swung into a first-half loss exceeding its R879m market capitalisation after Covid-19 shuttered facilities and hit Chinese stainless steel production.

The group reported a R961m loss for the six months to end-June, from profit of R165m previously. The group wrote down its assets by R1.34bn in its first half, warning on Tuesday that operating conditions in SA look set to deteriorate.

Both production and prices for ferrochrome, which is used in steel production, fell as a result of Covid-19, the group said, even as electricity costs rose.

Chinese stainless steel production in the first quarter of 2020 plummeted to levels last seen in early 2016, before recovering a little in the second quarter.

In June, the group announced it was moving to cut jobs, a process that would affect all smelters and mines, saying this was partially the result of unsustainable electricity prices.

The National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) had approved an increase of 8.76% for Eskom customers, which became effective in April.

The July court ruling that Nersa unlawfully included a R69bn equity injection from the government in its calculation of Eskom’s allowable revenue for 2019-2022 will result in further increased costs for energy-intensive businesses, the group said.

“These cost pressures threaten the sustainability of our smelting business as well as employment in our sector,” Merafe said.

[bullster] 08/9/2020 09:41

.
.

continuing on....

I am of the opinion that chrome is chrome, and the only difference between the various grades is the percentage of chrome in the ore.
I am therefore thinking of pegging all calculations to the UG 43% cif to China grade.

GSG, could help, if you could give me the historic average price for the 43% grade between 01/01/2020 to 30/06/2020.

to be continued .....

.
.

[frogkid] 08/9/2020 09:31

Blimey Bullster. You're a clever bloke. Thanks

[bullster] 08/9/2020 09:23

.
.

sharenotes,

It's a coincidence you should ask me that, as i'm working on putting a price to our chrome concentrate, at this minute.

I look at chrome in two categories
a: charge chrome, where the ore is smelted with iron to form an alloy.
b: crushed ore, with the many various categories , as you point out.

Charge chrome is falling out of favour from S. Africa because of the high energy costs at present on a comparative basis to China. So, it is making more sense to supply the ore concentrate and let the Chinese make their own charge chrome.

to be continued ....

.
.

[sharenotes] 08/9/2020 09:02

Bullster,

Do you know the spec of the chrome concentrate produced by JLP? I appreciate there may be some tolerance (variation).

[gsg] 07/9/2020 21:50

Just a bit more evidence that the chrome market is continuing to tighten with demand returning from China.

[goingforarun] 07/9/2020 21:05

Does this mean prices are rising?

[gsg] 07/9/2020 19:50

China’s chrome ore imports rebound in July, FeCr shipments down again

China’s imports of chrome ore rebounded in July from the month before amid easing supply tightness in countries of origin, while imports of ferro-chrome continued to decline, according to Chinese customs data.

China imported 1.14 million tonnes of chrome ore in July, an increase of 44% from 790,097 tonnes in June. But July’s total is down by 16% from the 1.40 million tonnes imported in the same month of 2019, the data showed.
Of the 1.14 million tonnes imported in July, 837,409 tonnes (73.5%) originated from South Africa, one of the world’s largest producers of chrome ore. This marks an increase of 56% from the 536,774 tonnes that the African nation supplied to China in June.
Approximately one million tonnes per month chrome ore flows into China, the world’s top one chrome ore importer. But due to supply interruptions amid South Africa’s nationwide lockdown since late March, China recorded significant declines in its total...