Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[mreyeguy] 20/5/2019 12:58

GLR 5% up ! L2 going nuts ! Wise are SELLING JLP AND BUYING GLR ? DYOR 10 bagger in the making

[gsg] 20/5/2019 12:15

In contrast to Glencore and Vedanta's position in Zambia, in the Proactive interview Leon seems very confident in JLP's position.

"we have demonstrated to government and various regulatory bodies in that country, how we operate. We have invited them to our operations, to come and see how we construct, commission and operate our facilities, and I think we have a respected brand now in Zambia."

With the Zambian government on board who knows what might come Jubilee's way.

[alwaysevolving] 20/5/2019 11:44

For anyone who may have missed this recent Proactive interview with Leon.

[mutley walters] 20/5/2019 11:35

Get a job what a waste of a life

[choppernoel] 20/5/2019 10:58

RNS is imminent. News will be released in due course. Jubilee will respond shortly. Negotiations are at an advanced stage.

[1madmarky] 20/5/2019 09:23

Just need to get in and on with sable...

[plat hunter] 20/5/2019 09:05

Not at all Fake Pete.. You have a steady increase in support and resistance markers.

If you think it to be ramped then you'll need to take that up with the several institutions and family offices which have taken significant positions here since November 2018.

No one here is big enough to move the market on this one I'm afraid.

Good luck big fella.

[petebarnes1] 20/5/2019 09:01

the charts look like this is a little ramped dont you agree plat hunter

[gsg] 20/5/2019 08:32

imo Glencore and Vedanta have taken the pi$$ out of the Zambian government for decades. The latest installment is that Vedanta promised new high end investment and jobs by investing $1b in a new copper cobalt refinery and power plant. This has not appeared, so the Zambian president is letting Vedanta know the consequences.

[bookwormrobert] 20/5/2019 08:30

Hi GSG!
Thanks for posting the links.
I don't think it will affect Jubilee much; conceivably this could even help Jubilee.
Glad I'm not holding Glencore or Vedanta shares this morning!

[billthebank] 20/5/2019 08:30

Thanks GSG!! I hope it isn't distracting The Zambians attention away from our awaited approval?

[gsg] 20/5/2019 08:24

Bill,

imo it won't directly affect JLP unless we were negotiating deals directly with Glencore and Vedanta. It may create opportunity for JLP directly with the Zambian government or the new investors they say are waiting in the wings, or it could be the Zambian government directing a warning shot across Vedanta and Glencore's bows to give them the hurry up.

[deme1] 20/5/2019 08:24

The good thing about not owning mines ;)

Anyone looked into this particular mine? Is it mothballed? If it is mothballed then you can't blame the government from wanting to see the mine open and producing jobs for the locals.

[billthebank] 20/5/2019 08:16

Hmmmm Is this good or bad news I guess it depends how you look at it I suppose!

[gsg] 20/5/2019 08:15

Not sure how reliable the source is, however if true, this will create some shock waves in the mining world.

[gsg] 20/5/2019 08:06

Looks like Glencore are not on the Zambian president's christmas card list.




Amos Chanda, a spokesman for the president, said that by using the word “divorce,” Lungu was referring to the fact that other unidentified investors are interested in Zambian mining assets.

edit: Possible Zambian divorce also applies to Vedanta.

[goldibucks] 19/5/2019 21:06

"The Business has now secured lots of debt it has to repay in order to finance Kabwe among other things, so how do you think all of that will be reflected by the end of the next 6 month period"

There won't be any (material) Kabwe interest payments in the 6 months to 30 June 2019. Jubilee will only draw down the £6.1m of ACAM loan notes when they can use Sable as security and/or need to fund the refurbishment. They can pay for Sable with the £11.1m they raised from the equity placing with £2m left over and those payment are staggered. Completing on Sable is dependent on the Zambian government approving the transaction under the Zambian Competition Act and an acid supply agreement being agreed between Jubilee and Glencore and neither of those things have happened yet.

When they do draw the £6.1m of ACAM loan notes in the year ended 30 June 2020, the interest on debt will be about £1.3m a year or £0.3m a quarter (£4.6m Platcro Chrome debt plus £6.1m Kabwe debt = £10.7m x 12% interest = £1.3m). They reported £3.2m of project earnings for Q1 19, so less £1.3m to cover the previously reported central cost run rate (just under £2.7m in the last interims divided by 2), less £0.3m interest is £1.5m, x 4 to annualise is £6m net profit.

I appreciate you aren't comfortable annualising unaudited current net profits but that's what's going to drive the share price. The market capitalisation is tracking about 10x forward net profits. If project earnings increase to £4.2m by Q3 19, and I'm confident they will, deduct £1.3m central costs, another £0.3m for Platcro and Kabwe interest gives a net profit of £2,5m, x 4 to annualise is £10m, which is a £100m market capitalisation or a share price of 5.4p if the current 10x forward profit ratio is maintained.

[kryptonsnake] 19/5/2019 16:52

And yet in will be in production 2 years earlier..

Broken
My
Record

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Thanks for your reply platts. It just proves that you haven't got me filtered LOLsss

Leon says 2 years earlier but that figure is just something he pulled out of Colin's ass. He has no clue because they never had a real plan to build a full scale plant


Jubilee hasn't even started construction works at Sable, the deal hasn't completed. Leon has given no planned start date for the works and has given a vague completion date of end of quarter four. All jam tomorrow stories


LOLsss

[goldibucks] 19/5/2019 09:59

“there is always a discrepancy between "reported" and "final audited for the full financial year" A discrepancy implies there is a shortfall or something to explain so I wouldn’t describe it as that. Quarterly results are at a project earnings level so exclude central costs, statutory results include them. Central costs don’t move around that much so it’s easy enough to switch between project and statutory earnings. I calculated H1 results at £0.4m PBT based on the reported quarterly project earnings, statutory admin costs in the previous financial year, and estimated interest costs. It gets harder to forecast full year statutory results because of IFRS2 share based payments and impairments but if you strip those two items out as non-underlying, it’s not difficult to forecast profit before tax. Provided PlatCro chrome is generating profit after interest and I’ve shown it’s going to make about £5m a year net of interest, the small profit they reported to 31 December 2018 will increase.

So I’d say double H1 PBT is £1.5m plus £2m PlatCro Chrome (would be £2.5m for 6m but I’ve restricted by £0.5m for half of January missing) minus £0.3m for Hernic Q1 issues, assume DCM breaks even in H2 (it lost £0.2m to £0.3m in Q1), assume no contribution from PlatCro PGMs to be prudent, and no more Hernic issues, is £3.2m then deduct whatever you think central costs will grow by in H2 as the scale of the business increases or they incur Kabwe costs that can’t be capitalised, I’m going to say £0.7m, leaves £2.5m PBT for the year ended 30 June 2019, excluding IFRS2 share based payments and impairments.

[billthebank] 19/5/2019 09:08

Mdalos1

So from your comments I assume you have no position here?

[aceshi] 19/5/2019 07:28

The problem is there is always a discrepancy between "reported" and "final audited for the full financial year" which we will now only receive, perhaps in November. And "going to" well that's precisely what MD is alluding to.

[goldibucks] 18/5/2019 20:38

“They definitely HAVE NOT reported any NET PROFIT have they”. They reported a profit before tax of £762k for the 6 months ended 31 December 2018. Q1 project earnings were up 57% on Q4 so it’s easy to see where that £762k is heading. They are going to be making about £5.5m to £6m a year on PlatCro chrome. Deduct interest at 10%-15% on £4.6m of PlatCro chrome debt is about £0.5 to £0.6m of interest so about £5m net profit per year just from PlatCro Chrome which kicked in from early to mid January.

[goingforarun] 18/5/2019 20:30

And? Can’t see that you conclude anything?