Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[millwallfan] 27/3/2019 10:52

Goldi. IF things pan out well and we do reach £40m net in 2021 what do you consider to be a realistic P/E ratio for a mining company operating in SA ? I also hold shares in GRIFFIN mining who operate in communist china and are registered in Bermuda and the general opinion is that these factors are quite a negative thus holding the share price down.

[bullster] 27/3/2019 10:13

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Platcro is turning out to be far, far, better than Hernic. With a combined chrome and pgm income, in 2020 Platcro is set to be earning around £6M per quarter, on todays prices.

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[plat hunter] 27/3/2019 10:02

Agree Goldi, it appears and rather in hindsight that the share price has been a reflection of the SA uncertainty with DCM and Hernic.

Hopefully onwards and upwards now.

[goldibucks] 27/3/2019 09:51

“profit distribution of 85% Hernic and 15% Jubilee”. Yes terrible split. Something I always suspected. They got a lot of stick for the PlatCro PGM placing at 5p in 2017 but they knew exactly what they were doing. Also explains PlatCro chrome and Kabwe. They have played their hand magnificently to create an earnings sweet spot for their SA assets in the next 18-24 months ahead of the ramp up of Kabwe. At one point they were in a very shaky position with DCM chrome nose diving and Hernic at risk during the business rescue.

[bullster] 27/3/2019 09:50

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Any fine chrome from Hernic will see the lions share given away, they do own the tailings in the first instance.

On a far better note, the Shard graph shows that the Platcro production of chrome concentrate produced in 2019 will be treble that amount for 2020 and 2021.
On current earnings of £450,000 per month,over £1M looks fantastic.

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[fozdad] 27/3/2019 09:33

If we introduce fine chrome reclamation at Hernic, I expect we would start to earn from the chrome there too

[goldibucks] 27/3/2019 09:24

“How does 0p sound to the idiots that hold this?” Don’t leave your short open too long. FY20 net profit Shard forecast £17m, FY21 net profit Shard forecast £41m, i.e. the current market cap.

[bullster] 27/3/2019 09:15

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There are a few consolitary notes i can temper the shock with.
One, the life of the projects are almost as long as the time before a profit share kicks in.Two, as feed material diminishes in the initial contract it will be possible to bring booster material in from a third party on a new contract, may even be ourselves.Three, an expanding pipeline of projects can fill the drop off of revenue, four, Tjate could be in play before i make my exit and Kabwe will be our backstop in the near term.

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[plat hunter] 27/3/2019 08:16

Better is a more appt word over 'higher' i suppose.On a mobile, can't edit retrospectively.

[frogkid] 27/3/2019 08:15

Not liking ?

[plat hunter] 27/3/2019 08:15

I thought that was good bullster.Hernic profit share is a lot higher than people though it might be. Being in charge of the full bang protects the IP of the business and the 15% is not much different to a licence or royalty scheme. Protecting the IP was something i was worried about.

[sweetfookall] 27/3/2019 08:06

Still showing this pile of carp. Already in good profit but am greedy.How does 0p sound to the idiots that hold this?

[sweetfookall] 27/3/2019 08:02

Short on. 150,k order but no one talks about cost or cash burn.Death to the share price IMHO

[bullster] 27/3/2019 07:56

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I'm not liking these bits from the Shard Capital note.
And with metal prices rising, after this publication was written, timelines have become shorter.




Jubilee is Hernic’s exclusive partner to recover PGMs from the chrome tailings and
platinum rich surface material and has contractually secured all feed material
coming from Hernic. Jubilee was responsible for the project build and is now
responsible for all operation, maintenance and managing the plant which suits
Jubilee given the company’s skill base and its need to maintain process control.
Jubilee has a profit share model with a profit distribution of 85% Hernic and 15%
Jubilee. However, this only commences after capex is paid back and Jubilee reaches
a 30% return on capital. At present Jubilee continues to retain 100% of project
revenue and earnings. Based on planned throughput and financial forecasts,
Jubilee estimates that 3rd party earnings will only kick in during 2022 and be fully
applied in 2023.


( DCM PGM's )
Typical JLP model whereby 100% of project earnings are payable to
JLP until all capex is recouped. Thereafter, a profit distribution kicks in with a
70:30 split in favour of JLP. Operating costs are expected to come in below
$400/oz 4E PGM.

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[aceshi] 27/3/2019 06:39

9811Empty........ noise

[plat hunter] 26/3/2019 22:40

All good.As David Cameron once coined "we're all in it together":-P

[1madmarky] 26/3/2019 22:38

Plat- cheers for posting the shard link.... very interesting reading.

[spazzeighties] 26/3/2019 20:55

Who's the institutional buyers anyone know?

I have £50 burning a hole in my pocket for a top up tomorrow.

[spazzeighties] 26/3/2019 20:52

Forget about Kabwe its just a sideshow. When JLP produces 50,000 pgms it will dwarf Kabwe.

It's a slow burner for me, but I'm topping up £150 here and there. When this goes you'll need to buckle up.

[gsg] 26/3/2019 19:21

"The company is trading on a 2.4x P/E for FY20 and 1.0xP/E for FY21 and we estimate that meaningful FCF generation at the corporate level will kick in from FY20. JLP’s financing strategy is heavily skewed to debt sources and we anticipate only minimal equity dilution going forward. The company is highly leveraged to metal prices and the chart below indicates changes to our SotP valuation. Our valuation becomes even more compelling if platinum prices recover for instance."

[plat hunter] 26/3/2019 18:57

"Valuation. Our current indicative valuation for Jubilee Metals is 6p/sh fully-diluted (unrisked 8.2p) which implies that JLP is trading at an undemanding 0.40x discount to NAV, with an implied return of 2.5x to the current share price. We forecast significant ramp up in revenue and earnings generation from FY20 as JLP executes on its ambitious growth programme."

So 24p with Kabwe at full production seems very reasonable then

[plat hunter] 26/3/2019 18:51

Not sure if everyone has seen this or not but the full broker note has now been published on JLP's website. It's only 72 pages, so enjoy...

[plat hunter] 26/3/2019 18:48

Not sure if everyone has seen this or not but the full broker note has now been published on JLP's website. It's only 72 pages, so enjoy...

[plat hunter] 26/3/2019 18:06

Krypton doesn't know how many figures are in a billion on top of his failed efforts at calculating mcap.

what a financial whizz you are lols