Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[master rsi] 05/3/2020 15:58

NOW REPORTED delayed 1 hour
14:00:42 3.545p 564,174 spread 3.50 v 3.60p
was responsible for the bid going higher

[robers98] 05/3/2020 15:46

The production base for South Africa’s high-flying platinum group metals (PGMs) is still constrained and there are no quick ounces to fill the gap, Nedbank CIB market research mining analyst Arnold van Graan said on Thursday.

“We’ve seen a lot of shaft closures and we’re still seeing planned shaft closures as we speak, despite the high increase in PGM basket prices,” Van Graan told Mining Weekly.

Based on the available reserves in the orebodies, Van Graan sees the number of shafts falling to about 50 by 2025, from the 80 shafts, headgears and declines that existed in 2008, which points to a considerable drop in production.

The closures have removed the available PGM ounces needed to bring the platinum market closer to balance.

Instead, a deficit has risen which has seen the prices of palladium and rhodium spike to very high levels and platinum suffering a slight surplus.

Every ounce of platinum mined brings with it about half an ounce of palladium and also rhodium, and with palladium and rhodium in such demand, the market is ending up with more platinum than it needs.

This is why steps are now being taken to match PGMs consumption with the PGM mining ratios.

The substitution steps now being taken are to ensure that under-supplied palladium is substituted with over-supplied platinum.

“Getting the usage ratio back to the mining ratio will balance out the pricing ratio,” Van Graan explained.
COST PROBLEM

Structural changes in the cost base are continuing to put put considerable pressure on costs, driven by above-inflationary increases in labour and electricity costs, the more stringent safety regime, the ageing of operations and increased travel time from shafts to rockfaces over a ten-year period to 2019.

“All these things have contributed to a significant rise in unit cost, which has outpaced the increase in the rand basket price. That’s why the industry’s margin evaporated and failed to generate cash flows," he said.

Following the restructuring post the 2014 strike, costs fell. "But over the last few years, costs have started to trend up again and in the recent results season, we’ve seen that costs continue to rise, almost across the board. So, I think the industry still has a cost problem.

“As a result, many of the marginal shafts previously earmarked for closure, but which are now being kept open on the back of high metal prices, are basically running on borrowed time. If we do see a sharp pullback in the PGM basket price, these marginal shafts are at risk.
“I understand why they are being kept open – they generate free cash flows and provide much needed employment, but it’s basically a temporary boost, and if metal prices turn down, more restructuring would have to take place,” he said.

Even before the outbreak of the coronavirus, which today hit South Africa in KwaZulu-Natal, vehicle sales are forecast to decline further this year, as they did last year and in 2018.

Despite the decline in vehicle sales, the PGMs industry has been bolstered by tightening emission standards across the globe and including China, which have resulted in more metals being loaded into each vehicle and demand continuing to rise.

“The PGM fundamentals are quite bullish over a three-year period, barring a big fallout from the coronavirus, which is still 'the known unknown', at this stage. We know it’s going to have a negative impact, but we don’t know how big that impact’s going to be.
“A lot of people have been running numbers. What I’d say from my experience is that it’s very hard to quantify the impact of something like this. What I do expect is that the actual impact plays out over a longer timeframe than most people anticipate. In reality, something like the coronavirus could play out over two or three quarters, or maybe even over a year,” Van Graan added.

Since 2008, there has been a significant decline in PGM mine capital expenditure (capex), which means that orebodies have been depleted but not replaced. To fix that, an increase in capex is necessary but even if that is done now, it would take years to grow output materially.

[lostabillion] 05/3/2020 15:32

Looks like another blue day is on the cards :-)

[plat hunter] 05/3/2020 15:30

If you want a quick lol... Go checkout you know who's musings on slp

[cernunnus] 05/3/2020 15:29

These small trades seem to be having more of an impact on the share price than larger ones?

[master rsi] 05/3/2020 14:54

So next is UP on the bid to 3.55p
the trend is UP since

[aceshi] 05/3/2020 14:48

The know it alls over on Undies/Platts censored thread claiming the intellectual high ground. Not realising they are being shafted right under their very own noses. Haven't yet accepted the realities of themselves potentially being cleaned out BMR style by the mighty, jam tomorrow, multi bagging, soon to be mid cap, pipe dream. Borelli may well be a corporate thug but rest assured the industry has plenty more where he came from.

[rescuer] 05/3/2020 14:11

frog - SB expries for March - all rollovers IMHO

[plat hunter] 05/3/2020 12:11

It's my opinion that the Kabwe JV company will end up selling surface material from kabwe to JLP.Any revenue shared with BMR pursuant to the JV agreement will rise from the sale of surface material, rather than the treatment and production of saleable metals.

[1madmarky] 05/3/2020 11:13

Would that explain the copper and cobalt rather than the zinc?

[mikebolle1] 05/3/2020 10:32

Same here adejuk. But i hate it more if people find someone or something to blame. If you don't take responsibility for your loses, you stand to lose again and again. Take responsibility, learn and move on.

[adejuk] 05/3/2020 10:21

i hate it when peeps lose money

[gsg] 05/3/2020 10:03

Getting it back to JLP, if the BMRwatch guys theory is correct, then Jubilee are running the clock down on BMR, hence the reason for not much news on Kabwe.

[gsg] 05/3/2020 09:51

PH. I agree, BMR was always a basket case. Firstly run by a crook and the then by an incompetent, who smashed it to pieces. Then JLP came along and picked up the valuable pieces.

Despite the delusional posts by some BMR holders on here, I do understand there are some truly tragic cases of specific investors in BMR who having lost everything. As BMR has disappeared up its own ar?e, they are using JLP to vent at. There's little room in business for compassion, however I do feel a tinge.

[niloc4] 05/3/2020 09:50

KennyP52....What does the P stand for? I'm sure the guests at the caravan park know what the P is.

[plat hunter] 05/3/2020 09:38

They were wiped out two years ago, they just won't accept it.

[aceshi] 05/3/2020 09:33

Why you think "The Canon" is also referred to as "The One Hit Wonder" Sold a mine in the dark ages and made those shareholders a ton of loot. Since then, pretty much everyones been diluted to oblivion.

[aceshi] 05/3/2020 09:26

Well done Ken and I mean that. You are an endangered species, one the few who hasn't actually lost money here. Im sitting on a similar ave but these days will continue to only dip my toes in the water, with JLP Aways worth reminding oneself to factor in the serious downside of capital remaining dormant for prolonged periods of time. Endlessly waiting for that jam tomorrow.

[nelson01] 05/3/2020 09:25

I’m really surprised you didn’t buy bmr, or maybe you did.

[deme1] 05/3/2020 09:18

with reference to the BMR debate on the rosey thread.

It's not the first time JLP, Colin and Leon have shafted shareholders!