Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[plat hunter] 17/3/2019 16:52

Dan's not got a clue Aces..

He only comes on to snipe at people who he considers fair game, in some kind of perverse popularity contest

[aceshi] 17/3/2019 16:29

Daniel There on this board posting all the positives, of which I am fully aware, no need for me to be repetitive. Unlike yourself, I try not to attack the messenger but rather question what I disagree with. And would expect the same of others.Personally, I have yet to hear you contribute anything of value to the discussion, but again, that's just an option. How's about you give us your opinion on this:Platt mentioned 2 valid points in a post yesterday. Kabwe, to date, has been a shocker for shareholders and production levels on existing projects should be prioritised. How should management handle what I call the Kabwe conundrum? Offshore diversification, almost unlimited resources and lifespan, relatively low input costs to date. Yet its looking more and more like a long term project that will suck capital from existing projects and every available source, for many years, before providing any profit. This could well translate into a long term weight on the share price Are you as a shareholder prepared to hang in for say, another decade, to perhaps achieve enormous growth in JLP. Or would you prefer to focus capital, profits and resources on existing projects for perhaps, smaller, short term, gains?

[plat hunter] 17/3/2019 16:13

Well yeah obviously...

Now I think people are starting to get it

[aceshi] 17/3/2019 15:57

GoldiYour positive input remains an excellent balance to my own. Again, I am obliged to identity a logical flaw in applying merely reported figures and estimations to your extrapolation of the available numbers, rather than audited financials. This to me remains an opinion based on a combination of reported, unaudited figures and projections. The discrepancy between JLP management and shareholder predictions and audited financials have remained world's apart. You make the case for JLP on a path to undisputed, profitable, growth. I believe the growth, by now, should be mandatory. However, as with so many AIM company's, converting the plan to projected production levels and profits, remains the challenge. The nature of business dictates that there will always be unforseen curved balls and poor decisions, that seriously affect the final figures. No matter how one delivers the message, it is all conjecture, until the profits are declared.

[goldibucks] 17/3/2019 13:37

“is a personal opinion & prediction based on multiple +ve events unfolding that is nothing but conjecture.” No positive events are assumed. I’m taking the reported calendar Q3 18 and Q4 18 production data and running the numbers back through the first half of financial year ended 30 June 2018 to get a loss before tax of £0.5m to £1m and then saying that mathematically JLP would need to increase project earnings in Q1 19 and Q2 19 by that first half loss of £0.5-£1m to break even in the current financial year ended 30 June 2019. Using the previously reported Q4 Hernic production data and an updated PGM basket price, they will make another £0.7m-£0.8m each quarter. No positive events assumed, just putting in an updated PGM basket price. All my forecasts are built on saying they will do what they did before with updated production data or pricing so no personal opinion is included. I’ve actually built in some extra cash burn to get to my £0.5m-£1m H1 loss based on the scale of the business and activity levels ramping up. And saying that I’m leaving out impairments and FX is hardly revolutionary. The business isn’t being valued on its Net Asset Value. If it was we’d be trading at 5p, therefore taking into account reductions in the carrying value of intangible assets that the market is ignoring would be pointless. You leave out FX because it could go one way or another and has no bearing on underlying performance. When the numbers go from strength to strength from the interims to Q1 to Q2 with the final knockout blow at Q3 in October this year, it won’t be an accident or luck from my perspective. It can be reliably extrapolated from historically reported numbers, assuming no positive events and building in no personal opinion.

[plat hunter] 17/3/2019 11:51

Cheers Bullster..I hadn't realised you could do that.Everyday's a school day :-P

[bullster] 17/3/2019 11:31

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PH,

My first thoughts of Samancor are, is the share of Hernic profits on hold until Sam takes control of the mine.

Lots of comment about Sam in the link below.




edit...Maybe you are referring to this post....


Bullster - 17 Oct 2017 - 15:16:27 - 21125 of 23236 THE REAL NEW DAWN FOR THIS RISING STAR - JLP
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Yes barnsey..... barely announced just 5 months ago, then there is implementation time.

AND yet no dots have been joined on here.

.....SO, we have Samancor coming in to partner Sinosteel who are ASA to form a company called Newco. Newco has taken over the processing assets of ASA.

Samancor own six underground mines near DCM............. and last month we are told we are about to crush third party ore.........from an unknown party.

And on newly signed contracts with a 50/50 partnership........ need i say more.

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[plat hunter] 17/3/2019 10:51

Morning Bullster

What are are your views on Samanancor?

Just something else I have been thinking about lately, they're a huge Chrome player and thus, could the inheritance of a strategic project partner be beneficial to JLP?

[gsg] 17/3/2019 09:15

Bullster,

We'll have to agree to disagree.

If I did not believe what Leon had told me, I would not be here. I have had some run ins with him, however overall I believe his version of events regarding DCM. Each to there own.

[bullster] 17/3/2019 09:02

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GSG,

On the contrary, Leon put the company in a precarious position and with the knowledge that he couldn't proceed with PGM extraction. The DCM deal was signed on far less favourable earnings for chrome than today's 50-50 deal. "Urgently needed cash flow", you say, well there hasn't been any. Any cash flow has been outstriped by investment in plant, just look at the loss in the quarterly update which does not include the £Millions we've spent on machinery and labour, pmg's is the money earner at DCM, not chrome. That's why he's been forced to do fine chrome, because the other chrome volume has been exhausted.

Leon has addressed the issue.......PPWAAAH

What if Jubilee never get the license to build a pgm beneficiation plant ?, that plant should have been up and running because DCM chrome has been draining money out of the profitable Hernic.

Without PGM's, DCM is a busted flush.

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GSG 16 Mar '19 - 11:43 - 9404 of 9408

Bullster,

Leon has addressed the issue of priorities at DCM. From what I remember of the conversation, the reason for the prioritisation of chrome was the ease and speed with which the chrome operation could be brought into operation in order to generate urgently needed cashflow. The absence of PGM production at DCM imo came down to affordability at the time. It has to be remembered that 4 years ago and until recent times, JLP was a busted flush. Things are obviously different now.

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[danieldanrichardson] 16/3/2019 18:11

Aces, I'm well aware of the negatives associated with JLP. I'm also aware of the positives which you refuse to acknowledge. My comment earlier was ill timed as it's given you an easy excuse to wiggle from the trap Bullster set you. My fault. Apologies to all.Glass half full is a blatant untruth. Glass fully empty would be apt.

[goingforarun] 16/3/2019 17:37

No matter what you think on profitability it would be a pity if Kabwe takes another 15 years to clear up considering the environmental disaster it is!

[goldibucks] 16/3/2019 17:34

“I assume there's no debate on that point”. They will be profitable in the current full financial year excluding any impairments and FX gains/(losses). It will be easy to prove this from the interims and Q1 production data. Calendar Q3 and Q4 project earnings were £3.95m. Per my calculations that will translate into a half year loss before tax excluding impairments and FX of £0.5m-£1m. To make a profit full year they will need to increase project earnings by more than £0.5m-£1m in both Q1 and Q2. They can do that with just Hernic from a small increase in ounces and a higher basket price. PlatCro chrome and DCM fine chrome in the second half of the current financial year will push them into profit.

[aceshi] 16/3/2019 17:08

Come on Daniel Get with the program. It's not about me, it's about who has a valid opinion or something to offer. It might not always be what you wish to hear, but perhaps you should be keeping an open mind. I am merely providing a balance of opinion or questioning the dialogue, if I am not clear or not in agreement, with another opinion. Call it deramping, call it what you wish. I would assume that is what an open forum intends to achieve. I have admitted to having a glass half empty outlook towards JLP. This doesn't automatically imply that i am in denial of any positives, that are factual. Wouldn't have retained half my holding, if I couldn't recognise any potential.

[plat hunter] 16/3/2019 13:28

I doubt Kabwe will happen for a long time yet, it's been nothing short of disaster for shareholders if we're going to be honest. Growth in pgm production is key here for me.

[goingforarun] 16/3/2019 11:57

Just need the share price to show this!

[gsg] 16/3/2019 11:43

Bullster,

Leon has addressed the issue of priorities at DCM. From what I remember of the conversation, the reason for the prioritisation of chrome was the ease and speed with which the chrome operation could be brought into operation in order to generate urgently needed cashflow. The absence of PGM production at DCM imo came down to affordability at the time. It has to be remembered that 4 years ago and until recent times, JLP was a busted flush. Things are obviously different now.

[danieldanrichardson] 16/3/2019 11:11

Simple but effective set up Bullster.Now let's watch Aces deny the positives you outline..