Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 28/10/2022 12:37

EI - The United States wants the war in the Ukraine to continue and wants China to invade Taiwan and wants N. Korea to go to war is because the U.S. as an empire is on its knees, it is on the edge of oblivion, on the edge of the end of empire that's why the U.S. is going to the extent it is - also the U.S. is again trying for regime change in Iran for the exact same reason.

Why - because China and Russia is perceived from their perspective as ambassadors for a multi-polar world and for a different financial system and a different way of conducting multi-lateral trade.

By China and Russia implementing it will kill the U.S. hegemony and kill the USD.

This is why we are where we are.

The U.S. economy only functions on cheap credit and money printing.

[loganair] 28/10/2022 12:30

s19 - Usually in any vote, companies ask for voters permission to be able to issue new shares, that's normal.

[squeaky19] 28/10/2022 11:57

thanks loganair

but that's not my point...

my point is that until someone can explain to me differently I cannot see from what I can read that:

a) JRS are asking us to approve a capital raise / share issue that dilutes us in the current vote
b) JRS can NOT issue any new shares in JRS without the existing shareholders voting to approve it

if anyone can point to evidence that the above to statements are incorrect then please do as that could be material to our investments. Conjecture and views on hypotheticals don't help me. Thank you

[loganair] 28/10/2022 11:52

I have never asked anybody and would never asked anybody to post a Contract Note of any share dealing they may have done as to do so is to ask the said person to post a private and confidential document on a public forum.

[essentialinvestor] 28/10/2022 11:39

No contract note, eh.

Just as I suspected.

[loganair] 28/10/2022 11:23

s19 - I would be OK with a Capital Raise as long as it is via a fully inclusive "Rights Issue" rather than a "Placing," as I wouldn't mind putting in a little more at say 40p per new share.

There is talk if a Capital Raise should happen then the current Russian investments with the frozen dividends be ringed fenced off with its own separate share structure within the new Trust. How may this work - the original JRS share holders could be issued with "A" class shares in the new trust which would give these share holders all rights over the ring fenced Russian stocks and associated frozen dividends.

[squeaky19] 28/10/2022 11:13

Popit, Loganair, concerning the potential for a new capital raise that dilutes us...

Can this happen without our approval?

My understanding is that JRS is an Investment Trust?

This seems to be borne out by the change in mandate being put to a shareholder vote (i.e. us)

The guidance in this link below suggests that any move to issue new shares would ALSO need to be put to a shareholder vote.

hxxps://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/investment-trust-shareholder-rights-beginners-guide-ii515547

Given that the share price is twice the NAV and shares would ordinarily be issued "near the NAV" then surely existing shareholders would NOT vote for such an issue as this would be like turkeys voting for Christmas?

I'm probably reading all this wrong, but my interpretation is that JRS (the company) cannot raise capital / issue more shares without seeking and gaining approval from the existing shareholders. And this is not being sought in the existing circular.

But if the rules are that we would have to approve a new share issue why would any existing shareholder agree to be diluted out of existence?

[1917again] 28/10/2022 10:59

Tigerbythetail, its looking highly likely that war crimes cases will award reparations against Russia to cover civilian deaths, torture and damage caused during the war by Russia. This will be taken from frozen Russian assets in the west, as by that time Russia will be a North Korea Mk2. However that means Russian state will claim any western assets there. As such the imaginary dividend account is worthless

[essentialinvestor] 28/10/2022 10:37

Well he's already sold 90% of his holding.


Post a screen shot of the contract note from that sale Logan.


If you read back on the OCI board, someone questioned one of my trades
previously, so I was happy to oblige by posting a copy of the contract note
confirming the trade.


Lets see your unbelievably well timed sale.

[1917again] 28/10/2022 10:37

Loganair, we still await the source of the 390,000 troops killed

Why cant you provide the link ?

Its starting to look like you were lying, so the question is why ?

Are you being paid to push Russian false propaganda?

[tigerbythetail] 28/10/2022 10:29

Loganair spamming the board with his RT talking points. Chelovek nichevo nye ponimaet. Most Russian economic figures now are heavily manipulated and bear no resemblance to reality, which is increasingly dire. In particular, the loss of Russia's best and brightest due to (forced) emigration is crippling the economy - e.g. over 2/3 of all computer specialists (overwhelmingly young males) have now left the country.
Anyway, the REAL question here is what does yesterday's RNS mean for JRS. In my view, the change of mandate and renaming virtually guarantees that there will be a big placing to refinance the fund. (Who operates a "new" fund with such a tiny investment capital?) That means that the imagined upside here (all those Russian shares that may or may not be worth money and justify the current premium over cash) will be diluted away (10:1 at least) to almost nothing. In short, JRS should be trading at cash + a couple of pence for the soon to be diluted value of the Russian shares, not cash + 40p or so.
So get out now while you can!

[loganair] 28/10/2022 09:52

(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s central bank is set to refrain from cutting interest rates for the first time since the immediate aftermath of the attack on Ukraine, as risks of higher inflation intensify following the Kremlin’s call-up of reservists to fight in the war.

The decision on Friday will probably draw a line under an unprecedented cycle of monetary easing that more than halved official borrowing cuts in six steps since April. Rising inflation expectations and the threat of economic spillovers from the invasion will only add to caution after Governor Elvira Nabiullina already signaled a pause was becoming more likely.

Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the benchmark will stay at 7.5%, with only a small minority forecasting a cut. Nabiullina will hold a news conference at 3 p.m. in Moscow and policy makers will also issue updated forecasts.

“The Bank of Russia may have plenty of macroeconomic reasons to continue cutting rates, but they may not be enough to ease policy at the current juncture,” Citigroup Inc. economist Ivan Tchakarov said. “The announcement of a partial mobilization has led to elevated uncertainty, which in the past has tended to tip the scale against cutting rates.”

An inflation slowdown that allowed for rates to be cut below their pre-war level is still intact and weekly price growth remains subdued. The central bank’s current forecast is for inflation to end 2022 at 12% to 15%, down from a 20-year high of almost 18% in April.

But inflation expectations, a key factor for policy makers, have increased for four straight months. In September, Nabiullina said she was “worried”; by their recent rise.

Economists at the central bank also said this month that the flight of foreign companies from the Russian market since the invasion in February was creating inflationary pressures as supplies of key consumer products ran short.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“Spiking demand for canned food, large cash withdrawals from banks and falling mortgage applications make the effects of Russia’s war mobilization resemble a light Covid lockdown. Will the Bank of Russia rely on its Covid era playbook and carry on with bold rate cuts? We believe the answer is no: The similarities are shallow and keeping inflation in check calls for keeping the policy rate unchanged.”

--Alexander Isakov, Russia economist.

The impact of the conscription on the economy is less clear. Consumer prices could come under pressure if the mobilization of 300,000 reservists adds to workforce shortages and pushes up wages as competition intensifies among employers.

But it could also have the opposite effect by prompting consumers to turn thrifty. The call-up will also boost government spending and may result in a wider budget deficit than expected.

The future path for interest rates has become so murky that Nabiullina wouldn’t rule out that the central bank’s next move may be a hike.

A sharp pivot toward tightening is unlikely for now, given that cheaper money has helped Russia avoid a sharp recession despite sweeping international sanctions.

Still, the importance of inflation expectations to the Bank of Russia’s “reaction function” makes a pause more likely this week, according to Tatiana Orlova of Oxford Economics.

“I previously thought that the Bank of Russia had one more small cut up its sleeve to respond to the renewed weakening in household demand on the heels of the mobilization,” she said.

[loganair] 28/10/2022 09:41

The MOEX Russia Index was 1% lower to hover at the 2,140 mark on Friday, easing from the five-week high in the prior session ahead of the Central Bank of Russia’s monetary policy decision today. The CBR is expected to hold its key rate steady at 7.5%, following six consecutive rate cuts since the emergency hike to 20% in February.

In the meantime, investors digested President Putin’s speech at an annual meeting in Moscow where he further emphasized the success of the action in the Ukrainian and took jabs against Western leaders, strengthening concerns that Russia will remain economically isolated for a prolonged period.

Still, the MOEX is set to close the week 5% higher amid hopes that companies will distribute hefty dividend payments. Oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil are among the main companies on dividend watch.

[gbjbaanb] 28/10/2022 09:20

In a couple of years?
If we're talking a couple of years then who knows what the investment case will be. Given Biden's regime there might not even be any as investment in s post-nuclear apocalypse doesn't feature too highly.

But assuming all is still lurching on, a couple of years will see sane people in the white house. The Russian investments will be unsanxtioned, everyone will say sorry and money will be made again. Money always wins when it comes to geopolitics.

[rjmahan] 28/10/2022 01:13

Urge you all to vote against the name change and continued investment. We are far better off getting this wound up and distributed in a couple of years. No advantage to turning this into a live vehicle, except allowing JPM to raise and dilute us…

[loganair] 27/10/2022 22:50

The MOEX Russia index closed nearly 2% higher at 2,161 on Thursday, rebounding sharply from the slight decrease in the prior session to levels not seen in five weeks with support from energy and metallurgist shares.

The strong momentum continued to be supported by hopes that companies will distribute hefty dividend payments, partially making up for previous dividend cancelations amid the crash in Russian financial markets. The movements take place despite the negative external sentiment and uncertainty in the Russian energy sector ahead of sanctions by the EU, underscoring that the deteriorating geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop has little effect on Russian equities.

Oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil both extended their rallies amid dividend announcement hopes. In the meantime, investors await the CBR’s decision tomorrow, set to hold rates steady at 7.5% after six consecutive rate cuts.

[brwo349] 27/10/2022 22:43

The Ukrainian war hasn't anything to do with NATO anyway. Russia just does not want another democracy encroaching on its borders. Ideally Russia wants to be surrounded by dictatorships like Belarus because these can be easily controlled. But democracies are different and Putin and the millionaires and billionaires that comprise the Kremlin know that it is only a matter of time before these democracies on their doorstep start to influence the Russian people themselves and the gravy train eventually ends for them.

[dil 21] 27/10/2022 22:23

And while your at it point us all to where and when Russia applied to join NATO and the EU.

[1917again] 27/10/2022 22:22

Loganair, we still await the source of the 390,000 troops killed

Why cant you provide the link ?

Its starting to look like you were lying, so the question is why ?

Are you being paid ?

[brwo349] 27/10/2022 22:20

---When I've been in Russia, like many non-Russians, my experience of being in Russia I felt far freer in Russia then I ever did in the West and especially felt so restricted and restrained in the United States. Unlike in the West, when in Russia the Russian state doesn't interfere with the everyday goings on and personal life's of the ordinary people of Russia and others who are living in Russia, they just let you get on with your own life.


Yes that's right people are much freer in Russia than in the United States.

Idiot.

[dil 21] 27/10/2022 22:18

And could you tell me why you felt restrained in the US compared to Russia ?

[brwo349] 27/10/2022 22:13

"Putin asked to join both the EU and NATO and both out rightly rejected Russia"

Russia has NEVER applied to join either the EU or NATO. So more untruths. Keep them coming.

I doubt they'd have been accepted anyway. You may notice that ALL members of the EU and NATO are democratic countries.

[brwo349] 27/10/2022 22:07

To address some of the untruths being posted by logan.
hxxps://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm

Myth 2: NATO promised Russia it would not expand after the Cold War


Declassified White House transcripts also reveal that, in 1997, Bill Clinton consistently refused Boris Yeltsin's offer of a 'gentlemen's agreement' that no former Soviet Republics would enter NATO: "I can't make commitments on behalf of NATO, and I'm not going to be in the position myself of vetoing NATO expansion with respect to any country, much less letting you or anyone else do so…NATO operates by consensus."