Jpmorgan Emerging Europe... Share Discussion Threads

[firtashia] 25/7/2024 05:15

huylo’s former economics adviser, Andrei Illarionov, argues the same thing here

[1917again] 24/7/2024 20:27

Lets not forget Trump when President was right demanding

Merkel should not build Nordstream 2

All NATO members should have been spending the agreed 2% of GDP on defence as Russia was not to be trusted

He increased the number of US troops in Europe

In 2022 he said below, clearly has no time for the war criminal Putins lies

In a Monday morning interview with Fox Business’s Stuart Varney, Trump offered that if he was president right now, he’d threaten Vladimir Putin with nuclear war.

“I listened to him constantly using the N-word, that’s the N-word, and he’s constantly using it: the nuclear word,” Trump said describing his talks with the Russian leader, while absolutely bizarrely suggesting “the N-word” refers to “nuclear.̶1; “We say, ’Oh, he’s a nuclear power.’ But we’re a greater nuclear power. We have the greatest submarines in the world, the most powerful machines ever built…. You should say, ‘Look, if you mention that word one more time, we’re going to send them over and we’ll be coasting back and forth, up and down your coast. You can’t let this tragedy continue. You can’t let these, these thousands of people die.”

[dil 21] 24/7/2024 20:25

Well why don’t you go then ?

We’ve all offered to drive you to the airport on numerous occasions.

[loganair] 24/7/2024 16:53

Life expectancy was so low for men in Russia because they use to smoke and drink themselves to death which is becoming less of a case now days since Putin put a minimum price for alcohol, closed down all the end of the street seedy bars and has heavily increased taxes on tobacco.

For a woman in Russia life expectancy is only 2 years less then it is for a woman in the UK and in just 6 years time, 2030, not including covid and the conflict in the Ukraine life expectancy is expected to have risen to 75 for a man, compared to just 59 in the year 2000, that's a rise of 16 years in life expectancy for a man in just 30 years.

Also now in Russia, on the whole hospitals are far better and far more modern then they are in the UK with only days waiting times instead of many, many months or even years in the UK. Able to get a doctors appointment with 24 hours in Russia, often even same day while in the UK, often 6 weeks or longer, or even at all to get a doctors appointment.

Also in Russia there are stand alone children's theatres and stand alone children's libraries and as for heating during the winter, even in St Petersburg is no more than £10 per month to keep a home a toasty warm 24C.

I know where I'd prefer to be, Russia any day of the week.

[firtashia] 24/7/2024 15:54

masergt1, post 172: your final two paragraphs raise a valid point. Much is being made of Trumps's statements regarding withdrawal of military support to those countries who don't "pay their way" regarding NATO membership, and how this may encourage huylo to think he can get away with invading NATO members without serious repercussion. However no lesser risk is that huylo may equally perceive the Biden/Sholtz "escalation management" policy to be a green light for chancing his luck with the Baltic States. Biden seems to have forgotten that Ukraine has already been shelling military targets in what russia considers to be it's territory (Crimea) with weaponry supplied by the US without any significant retaliary escalation against the west, just as the shooting down of a russian jet by Turkiye in 2015 did not lead to nuclear war or WW3.

[1917again] 24/7/2024 15:42

And its getting worse

Russia’s population could drop to 130 million by 2046 due to declining immigration numbers and low birth rates, according to a worst-case projection by Russia’s statistics agency Rosstat, the RBC news website reported.

Rosstat predicts Russia’s population will drop from the current 146.1 million to 138.8 million by 2046 under its most likely scenario, which was released in October.

Rosstat’s latest worst-case scenario anticipates an even deeper population decline of 15.4 million over the next 22 years, which would amount to 700,000 fewer people living in the country each year.

Only move to Russia if you want to die young !!!!

[smithie6] 24/7/2024 15:01

Russian care homes.

Perhaps they just send the old people to care homes in Siberia.....
....would surely minimise the annual cost to the Russ. Govt ! (since it would be easy to let them slip away.....)

----

and the average live expectancy for males is perhaps quite low.....due to probably a highish alcohol intake, animal fats, smoking, etc

----
one web site shows that the average life expectancy in Russia )men & women combined) in each of the years '21, '22, '23 was 73 years.
(& one assumes that in reality that the average has fallen due to the Russian deaths due to invading Ukraine; is that data included or perhaps excluded because no official in Russia wants to reveal the true data).

If we assume that for women it is a bit higher than for men (as per most countries) one could assume/guess that the life expectancy for men in Russia might be 68-70 years. & 76-78 years for women.
That is a worryingly low life expectancy.
The retired age in the UK will be 67 in a few years for men (will it still be 60 for women !!, ;-) , since they life longer they get to retire earlier !! (or they used to, work that one out !!!!!, completely nuts !)

so.....an average Russian man, if he moved to the UK in 2027 & retired at 67 in ~2028 in the UK, he would be expected to draw a pension for just 0-2 years !!

which infers that by 67 years of age the average Russian man is really on his last legs, in his last 0-3 years, with various serious medical problems

ouch !!!

I don't think I'll be moving to Russia !

[loganair] 24/7/2024 14:10

While on a trip to Beijing, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister told the Chinese Foreign Minister that Kiev is ready to talk peace with Russia.

[masergt1] 24/7/2024 13:58

I kinda expected Russian care homes would be so much better all round than UK homes.

Lol.

[masergt1] 24/7/2024 13:44

Putin will balance that out by sending young women to front line.

[1917again] 24/7/2024 11:32

Girlfriend just thinking about the new junk lada can buy
Only problem is may have to share the next boyfriend when present one is killed, as soon be many more young russian woman than young russian men

[loganair] 24/7/2024 11:00

Britain currently can put no more than 32,000 troops into the field, at best, the entire British army may be able to hold the Northern Kharkiv front.

British military expert "It's not enough to have tanks, planes and boats, you need tanks planes and boats surrounded by a shield of high tech." Such wrong thinking, you can see why today the British armed forces are is such dire straights with such misguided thinking as that, spending more and more of the military budget on very expensive, not much of it, high tech.

[loganair] 24/7/2024 09:16

gb - In the care home my relative has gone into 1/3rd last about 8 weeks, 1/3rd 6 months to a year and 1/3rd around 5 years, these tend to be the ones with Dementia.

By the way, I've heard taking the mNRA vaccine increases the likelihood of getting dementia by 22%.


The care home my relative is in, has been there for 2 years. At the end of the first year the care home put up their fees by 5.8% and this year rose by a further 13.1%.

[loganair] 24/7/2024 09:11

Since 2010 when Putin put a minimum price for alcohol and closed all the seedy bars at the end of each street the average life expectancy for a man has increased by 9 years from 59 to 68 and for a woman is 79 which is only 2 years less then for a woman in the UK.

If take out Covid and the conflict in the Ukraine by 2025 male life expectancy is expected to rise to 71 and be around 75 by 2030.

By 2025 Putin will have double the taxes on tobacco from where they were in 2020 and 6 times that of 2010. 2010 40% of the Russian population smoked, currently it's 24% and by 2025 expected to be around 20%.

[gbjbaanb] 24/7/2024 08:57

Most people who go to care home last 2yrs tops in there. As if you are so unhealthy you need one, you're not long for the world.But I think they have become a scam to fleece the taxpayer, like yet another privatisation of health Blair allowed so much.

[1917again] 24/7/2024 08:48

As the average life expectancy in Russia is a very low 73 years

And lower now there is 500k Russian casualties in the war criminal Putins war

There isnt much need for care homes in Russia

[loganair] 24/7/2024 08:02

ROBIZM - I was wondering where your relative lives to be quoted only £1,100 per week for a care home.

Where my relative lives the lowest out of 22 care homes in the area is £1,650 per week with the average being £1,825 per week (£94,900 per year.) Going back to 2018 the lowest was £1,050 per week with the average being £1,250 per week.

There is a need to build at least 2 more care homes in the area, however the local council will not give building permission until the companies concerned are able to prove they can fully staff them.


Most of the staff in these care homes are either Filipinos' or Nepalese and why? They do not argue with the bosses and seem happy to work for minimum wage and they all seem to me to be understaffed, especially during the weekends.


In a city, 240,000 inhabitants, in Russia, the most expensive private care home is $400 (£320) per week (exchange rate of 85 RUB to the USD), fully staffed and much better then any of the 22 in my relatives local area.

[smithie6] 24/7/2024 07:50

Care homes.
If a person needs a lot of personal help, I guess the cost to provide the people for that is expensive. And not a queue of people wanting to wash old people after they have had a pooh. And a % with incontinence that need undressing, cleaning, drying then re-dressing. If it needs 2 workers then one can see the cost.
For UK born people the wages are surely not attractive for the type of work & the hours (old ppl still need looking after on weekends, 24/7).

[smithie6] 24/7/2024 07:42

is it 2.8million people in the UK apparently too ill to work.

Maybe we need doctors less willing to write long sick notes !
(2.8 million. yeah right.
'oh, I'm too stressed'
'oh, I'm so stressed, my boss said I work too slowly, I feel under scrutiny all the time. I have just so much anxiety')

[robizm] 23/7/2024 21:17

I have had to look at care homes for a relative and most staff are foreign. Is this repeated across Europe (I don’t know). When the uk born refuse to do certain types of work, the uk is not going to be a country to get old in. Care home fees are rising so fast and yet more are needed. I was quoted a £1100 a week. My relative can afford 10 yrs at most and they are only 59.

[smithie6] 23/7/2024 18:11

...be a downer to one's male ego if the girlfriend kept suggesting that the boyfriend/hubby signed up !!

[masergt1] 23/7/2024 16:07

Earlier this month:

"Tatarstan is offering people over $1,000 if they can talk their nearest and dearest into taking up arms for Moscow.

Russia has been struggling to recruit new soldiers after invading Ukraine in February 2022. | Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images JULY 11, 2024 6:17 PM CET
BY KETRIN JOCHECOVÁ

Authorities in the Russian republic of Tatarstan are offering money to residents who convince their friends or relatives to help Russia wage its war in Ukraine, TV Rain and other independent Russian media have reported.

The finder’s fee, which can be collected by anyone who gets a friend to join the military, was initially set at 50,000 rubles (about €525) on Tuesday, but was later doubled. Russian media say the new campaign to boost military recruitment has been advertised on government websites, pro-government media sites and local forums.

Tatarstan is home to 2 million of Russia’s 5.3 million Tatars, a Turkic people. [And the indigenous peoples of Crimea]. Such ethnic minorities have borne the brunt of Russia’s war in Ukraine, with a disproportionate number being killed in battle. The Buryats, a Mongolic ethnic group from southeastern Siberia who make up only around 0.3 percent of Russia’s population, have suffered 1.16 percent of its war casualties, the highest proportion among the country’s ethnic groups. Chechens have also reportedly been fighting in large numbers in Ukraine.

Their disproportionate involvement in the war has prompted rare protests in the country, including in Dagestan in September 2022.

Tatarstan had previously increased the lump-sum payment it offers to new recruits, which combined with other bonuses now amounts to 1.5 million rubles (€15,725), one of the highest in the country.

Anti-war NGO Idite lesom (a Russian play on words which means “go through the forest” but also serves as a milder form of “screw you!”), which helps Russian citizens desert or avoid conscription, has warned against the campaign on its Telegram channel, sharing the story of a man whose passport was confiscated and who may have been conscripted against his will while intoxicated.

Russia has been struggling to recruit new soldiers after invading Ukraine in February 2022. In January Moscow raised the maximum age at which men can be conscripted from 27 to 30, and it has also recruited non-professional soldiers lacking military skills and experience."

With over 1,000 casualties per day, Russia needs some 70,000 new front line troops every two months. Inadequently trained and equipped, these poor suckers then become the first casualties of each new Russian offensive as HIMARS now blasts them to smithereens. Putin really is off his head and the West sghould have stopped all this a long time ago.

[masergt1] 23/7/2024 15:17

Other sources show similar increases which prove Russia has no plans to negotiate a peace settlement with Ukraine and is, arguably, re-arming for a wider conflict in Europe. [...]

"Russia’s 2024 Budget Shows It’s Planning for a Long War in Ukraine.

The Russian government's 2024 budget proposal marks a historic shift with 6 percent of GDP allocated to military spending, surpassing social expenditure. This underscores the Kremlin's commitment to its conflict with Ukraine, suggesting no immediate plans for cessation, regardless of the conflict's intensity. The budget anticipates a revenue increase to $349 billion, with $121.25 billion from the oil and gas sector, and plans expenditures of $373.05 billion, aiming to reduce the budget deficit from 2 percent of GDP in 2023 to 0.8 percent in 2024.

Social spending is expected to rise to $75.25 billion, while national security outlays will increase slightly to $35.25 billion. Despite these increases, spending on education and healthcare will not rise, effectively reducing in real terms. The Economic Development Ministry predicts a modest inflation rate of 4.5 percent and a GDP growth of 2.3 percent, with the Urals oil price forecasted at $71.30 per barrel. [N.B. Russian figures. Inflation at 4.5% with a base rate of 18%? Lol].

Defense expenditure is set to nearly double from the current year, reflecting a strategy not seen since the Soviet era or U.S. spending in the 1980s. This increase supports military equipment production, compensations for war casualties, and confronts inefficiencies within the defense sector. Notable financial struggles include the state defense conglomerate Rostec, Roscosmos, and the United Shipbuilding Corporation, highlighting the economic strain of increased military spending.

The government views the war as an economic stimulus, with significant growth in industries tied to military production and related sectors, achieving a record low unemployment rate of 3 percent. However, this militarized economic approach faces challenges due to workforce shortages, sanctions, and reliance on imports, which could drive inflation and hinder investment.

By prioritizing military over civilian needs, the Kremlin risks entrenching the economy in a war-driven model, potentially harming living standards and causing structural issues if military spending is reduced. This strategy places the economic burden on ordinary Russians, reflecting a precarious balance between wartime exigencies and economic sustainability."

A recipe for internal strife and insurrection? Another peasants revolt when they find out the true cost in Russian lives of this illegal and insane invasion? Sanctions need to be made watertight to squeeze the last lifeblood out of Putin.