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[loganair] 23/5/2024 10:04

The MOEX Russian Index dropped 0.7% to the 3,420 level on Thursday, as investors weighed the corporate outlook amid ongoing national capital controls and a hawkish stance from the Bank of Russia.

Heavyweight Gazprom was among the biggest losers, falling over 2%, extending its 10% decline over the last five sessions due to the government’s directive to withhold dividends for 2023 and a growing pessimistic outlook for the company. Similarly, Norilsk Nickel saw a nearly 1% decline after its board recommended not paying dividends for 2023.

Conversely, VK outperformed the index, rising around 0.5% after posting strong first-quarter results. The company reported a 24% increase in revenue, totaling 33.8 billion rubles for the period.

[loganair] 23/5/2024 09:05

BBC Russian Service - Last week of April / First week of May Russia lost 1,110 troops = 79 per day.

In the first 2 days of the Kharkiv offensive Ukraine lost circa 1,500 troops just on the Kharkiv front alone.

Currently on all fronts Ukraine troop losses are at least 10 to 1 Russian per day.

Many Ukrainian men find themselves on the front lines within only 3 to 4 days after being taken by the conscripting squads = no training with little equipment and poor equipment with many of these being killed within another couple of days. No wonder why so many towns and cities in the Ukraine there are no longer any men on the streets because if they do venture out there is a high likelihood of them being taken/mobilised and they know if this happens the chances are they'll be dead within a week.

Ukrainian men being on the streets of the Ukraine = a death sentence for them.

Russia has already captured more territory in their Kharkiv offensive then Ukraine took on all fronts during their great Summer offensive of last year.

[masergt] 22/5/2024 17:30

Your super duper growing economy is not looking so good, is it logliar? Hacve you been telling us porkies?

[loganair] 22/5/2024 09:04

The Russia index rose by 0.5% to hover at the 3,450 mark on Wednesday, bouncing back after losing 2.1% in the prior two sessions as markets continued to assess the corporate outlook amid prolonged national capital controls and a hawkish Bank of Russia.

Gazprom remained in the spotlight and rose 1.6%, putting a halt to its 10% fall in the last four sessions due to the government’s order to not distribute dividends for 2023 and the increasingly pessimistic outlook for the company. The company reported a near $7 billion loss in 2023, the first since 1999, as gas sales to Europe nearly halted after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and new clients in China failed to fill the gap.

Rostelecom also booked gains and rose over 2%, as markets continued to assess the impact of IPOs for its subsidiaries.

On the other hand, metallurgists booked losses as base metal prices pulled back, with MMK and Rusal both dropping more than 0.5%.

[1917again] 21/5/2024 09:42

Germany Warms to US Plan to Tap Frozen Russian Assets for Ukraine Funds


• G-7 to hone options this week in Italy, June decision likely
• US seeks income from assets to back loan up to $50 billion


By Viktoria Dendrinou, Michael Nienaber, and Kamil Kowalcze
May 21, 2024 at 4:00 AM GMT+1

In an about face, German officials are ready to support a US plan to leverage the future revenue generated from frozen Russian assets — mostly stranded in Europe — to back $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Germany’s assent could be a crucial step that brings Washington and its allies closer to securing a substantial new aid package for Kyiv and ensuring US engagement regardless of the outcome of the November election.

[loganair] 21/5/2024 08:55

The MOEX Russia index dropped 0.4% to 3,440 on Tuesday, declining for the second session and undergoing a correction, weighed down by expectations of prolonged restrictive policy by the CBR and stronger ruble.

Among sectors, the steepest falls were seen by telecommunications and construction.

As for individual stocks, heavyweight Gazprom (-4.9%), Segezha (-4.6%), VK (-2.2%), and MosEnergo (-2%) were the most bearish, with Gazprom still suffering a hit from negative prospects of dividend payments. Also, Alrosa lost 1.5% despite the news that the US may ease sanctions against Russian diamonds.

In contrast, AFK Sistema (1.9%), Surgut (1.5%), MMK (1%), NLMK (0.8%), and Severstal (0.7%) advanced.

[loganair] 20/5/2024 10:09

The MOEX Russia index hovered close to the flat at the 3,500 mark on Monday, remaining near its highest level since the crash triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as markets assessed the latest economic data and corporate developments.

Data from Russia’s statistical authority confirmed the Economy Ministry’s estimates that the Russian GDP grew by 5.4% in the first quarter, extending the rebound since being hit by Western sanctions.

In the meantime, inflation rose to its highest in 14 months to stretch concerns of a hawkish Bank of Russia.

Rostelecom shares were over 2% lower as markets assessed the likelihood of more IPOs for its subsidiaries.

In the meantime, precious metal miners Polus and Seligdar jumped over 2% each on the back of record-high gold prices.

[masergt] 17/5/2024 18:53

logliar - #2644. So what's China holding instead? Or is it simply having to cash in to cover corporate bankruptcies and pay down its massive debt mountain caused by its global expansionist policies and collapsing economy amidst increased military and territorial ambitions?

Here's part of the answer:

"But the central government in Beijing ... is increasingly concerned about the value of the renminbi, which hit a 16-year low in September. Beijing has intervened to prevent the Chinese currency from falling too far too fast by selling foreign reserves and buying renminbi."

"China is in the midst of a profound economic crisis. Growth rates are flagging as an unsustainable mountain of debt piles up; China's debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 288% in 2023. But even that eye-popping figure does not capture the uncomfortable fact that much of it was borrowed to buy assets that no longer yield enough income to repay the debt. This is especially true in the housing sector, where sales have fallen by a third since the pre-pandemic peak, and new construction is down 60%. This is one of the worst housing crashes in the world over the last three decades."

Here's another partial answer along similar lines:



"... and uncertainty surrounding China’s economy and intensified geopolitical tensions have together driven foreign investment out of China. By January 2024, inward foreign direct investment in China was less than 10% of the US$344 billion (£270 billion) it received in 2021."

But here's the real problem - and China has no answers:



"China’s National People’s Congress completed its 2024 session this week with nary a word about addressing the country’s most serious economic problems.

"With local government debt totaling more than thirteen trillion dollars and nearly three dozen real estate companies defaulting on bonds and loans, the government’s silence on these issues did little to reassure domestic or foreign investors.

"However, there was no sign that the government was prepared to channel resources to boost household spending, which is necessary if growth is to revive. Without higher levels of consumer spending, Beijing’s efforts to stimulate the economy increasingly will be akin to pushing on a string.

"As the premier’s work report acknowledged, the bureaucracy is riddled with inefficiency, waste (especially involving priority government projects), and corruption. This, combined with all the country’s deep-seated economic problems, suggests that the “modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone” that Xi seeks is being built on a fractured foundation."

Despite what you would have us believe about Russian and Chinese/Hong Kong monetary acumen, logliar, your post simply emphasises the ever reliable strength of Western financial policies and the long list of countries who flock to the US dollar with increasing commitment whenever militaristic and corrupt dictators like Putin and Xi Jinping destabilise the world economy for their own perceived gain.

So mnuch for your BRICS. !!!

[loganair] 17/5/2024 10:55

The MOEX Russia index traded 0.3% up at 3,495 on Friday, as investors positioned themselves for preliminary GDP results and monthly inflation reading due after the closing bell. They also followed the events from the second day of Putin's visit to China.

On the corporate front, the leaders of growth were NorNickel (2.7%), PIK (2.7%), GLTR (91.3%), MMK (1.3%), and Aeroflot (1.2%). NorNickel benefited from higher nickel prices since unrest continued in New Caledonia mining region.

Meanwhile, losses were seen by MKB (-1.8%), Ros Agro (-1.1%), Gazprom (-1.1%), and Tatneft (-0.9%). Markets also remained attentive to Rosseti, which would be holding the meeting to decide on dividends.

Weekly, the index was poised for 1.5% gain. The IPO boom, improved quarterly results, and return to dividends offset worries over tight-for-longer monetary policy by CBR.

[loganair] 16/5/2024 15:28

For info:

As of March 2024 China held $767.4bln of US Treasury's, their lowest level of holdings for many a year.

The UK, which has been steadily increasing its holdings of US Treasury's now holds just $39.3.bln less than China, 20 months ago the difference was $293.1bln.

It seems to me reasonable to say in only a few short months the UK will become the second largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury's.

Over the past year Mexico has increased it's US Treasury holdings by 36% while France has increased by a whopping 55%, Canada by 47%, Ireland 26% & Luxembourg 22%.

Meanwhile, apart from China only Belgium, Switzerland and Hong Kong have reduced their US Treasury holdings over the past 12 months.

[loganair] 16/5/2024 09:04

The MOEX Russia index traded 0.3% higher at 3,480 on Thursday, with investor's attention shifting to the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China, where he meets with Xi Jinping to discuss issues of energy cooperation and strategic partnership.

Additionally, the earnings season continued in Russia. It was Rostelecom and Sovcombank's turn to report. Rostelecom fell by 1.1% after disclosing a 28% decrease in its net profit in Q1 of 2024 to RUB 12.5 billion compared to the same period of 2023. Meanwhile, Sovcombank lost 3.2%, having revised downwards its revenue projections for 2024 due to high-for-longer monetary stance by the CBR.

On the side of gains, the index was supported by GLTR (2.5%), Alrosa (1.5%), MosEnergo (1.4%), and Surgut (1.2%). Alrosa was growing in anticipation of dividend announcement for 2023.

[loganair] 15/5/2024 09:03

The MOEX Russia index traded with marginal gains at 3,470 on Wednesday, showing muted dynamics over the week marked with CPI figures. The country's inflation data for April will be published this Friday and could give investors more clarity on CBR's future decisions after the minutes from regulator's last meeting showed the monetary easing was unlikely to commence soon and rate cuts were still on the table.

Meanwhile, today, the market's attention will turn to Surgut's Board meeting on dividends and Russia's GDP reading due after the closing bell.

On the corporate front, the increases were recorded by Rusal (2.5%), EN+ (2.3%), AFK Sistema (2%), Aeroflot (1.8%), and Seligdar (1.1%). Also, M.Video shares went up fractionally after the company revealed positive operating results for Q1 of 2024, with the gross sales rising by 24% yoy to RUB 98 billion.

On the opposite side, MosEnergo (-1.5%), Unipro (-0.6%), and NLMK (-0.5%) fell.

[loganair] 14/5/2024 10:09

The MOEX Russia index rose slightly to 3,460 on Tuesday, as investors continued to weigh the monetary policy outlook by the CBR after the minutes from its last meeting showed the officials remained hawkish in their projections and didn't exclude the possibility of another rate hike this year.

Among sectors, gains in the IT offset losses in telecommunications and construction.

As for individual stocks, VK (2.8%), MMK (0.9%), Samolet (0.9%), and MosEnergo (0.9%) boasted the largest wins.

Meanwhile, Rosstelecom (-1.9%), Ros Agro (-1.8%), and Mechel (-1.5%) dropped, and Sberbank traded flat despite publishing improved financial results for April. Under the RAS, the lenders' net profit for the first 4 months of 2024 increased by 5.1% year-on-year to RUB 495.1 billion.

[loganair] 14/5/2024 07:52

If Western sanctions were 100% effective against Russia and stopped all their oil exports, the price of oil would dramatically rise to around $500 per barrel = a total collapse of the world economy.

[loganair] 13/5/2024 09:24

The MOEX Russia index rose 0.4% to 3,465 on Monday, advancing for the 3rd session, supported by higher oil prices. Meanwhile, investors digested fresh corporate updates and awaited the monthly inflation reading later in the week to get a better understanding of CBR's monetary policy.

Among individual stocks, Mechel (1.8%), Ozon (1.5%), Unipro (1.4%), Aeroflot (1.3%), and Gazprom (1.3%) increased the most.

On the negative side, Ros Agro (-3.2%), Seligdar (-1.1%), Inter (-1.1%), MOEX (-0.8%), and Polus (-0.8%) declined. The former was penalized by disappointing financial results, with the company's net profit plunging by 68% to RUB 3,677 million in the Q1 of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023. Ros Agro's board also decided not to pay dividends for 2023 and focus on growth.

[loganair] 10/5/2024 10:29

The MOEX Russia index rose 0.5% to 3,450 on Friday, trading in the green for the second session, driven by gains in the metals sector. Meanwhile, investors also welcomed the news about President Putin's support of Mikhail Mishustin for the post of Prime Minister.

Gold miners Polus, Seligdar, and Polymetal advanced the most, up by 3.1%, 1.9%, and 1.3%, respectively thanks to the positive momentum for gold. Also, EN+ added 2.9% despite lower cost of aluminum, and energy companies Surgut and Tatneft grew by nearly 1% each.

On the side of losses, Ozon and GLTR dropped by 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively.

Over the holiday-shortened week, the index was set for a flat close, affected by reduced activity, disappointing corporate results and fresh taxes.

[loganair] 10/5/2024 08:42

When the Soviet Union first started to collapse in the late 1980's the United States at the time only wanted to see the 3 Baltic Republics gain their independence while also wanting to see both Belarus and the Ukraine in a Confederation with Russia.

The biggest worry since for the United States was Germany joining up with Russia to form a European power house which will more than rival the United States and therefore the U.S. wanted to see NATO not only continue but to expand to stop this from happening.

Remember NATO is all about keeping the United States in Europe while keeping Russia out and Germany down which is exactly what has been happening over the past few years, especially with the destruction of the Nord Stream pipe lines.

[loganair] 09/5/2024 15:51

It seems to me reasonable to say that the EU is currently the most hideous and heinous organisation on the planet and needs to be kept as far away as possible and dismantle as it's now become just so toxic for the peoples of Europe and the rest of the world.