Jpmorgan Emerging Europe... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 09/5/2024 11:29

It seems to me as long as the United States do not do anything stupid or foolish when it comes to Russian state assets then its likely in the end JEMA Will be able to get back at least 50% of the value of their Russian securities and cash held in their 'S' account.

At full value JEMA's Russian stocks are worth circa 500p per share.

At 115 rub to the GBP JEMA's Russian securities and 'S' account are worth circa 560p, 50% = 280p + 45p for their non-Russian assets = somewhere around 325p per share.

[gbjbaanb] 09/5/2024 11:18

How much of that is cash from past dividends and how much is the value of the stocks still held?

[loganair] 09/5/2024 07:58

The stated NAV also gives ZERO value for any monies held in JEMA's Russian 'S' account which currently holds 61p per share at 115 RUB to the GBP.


After the conflict in the Ukraine is over it seems reasonable to me to see the exchange rate rise to 100 RUB to the GBP = 70p per share in JEMA's Russian 'S' account.

I give 50% of the value of Russian stocks held and monies in their 'S' account as this is by Russian law the least JEMA will receive in the end as long as the West, especially the United States or UK, do not seize Russian state assets.

[glavey] 09/5/2024 03:27

Lot of tosh, inaccuracy and irrelevance. Can't be bothered...

[redhorse2020] 09/5/2024 03:11

Glavey, the whole market is of course driven by speculation as to what is the true NAV of any investment - that is precisely the point. The stated NAV which you refer to includes Russian holdings at 1 percent of their actual market value - do you really think they are worth precisely 1 percent of the market value? Perhaps they are worth absolutely nothing or perhaps a lot more, as I say, my view is that this is anyone's guess under the circumstances.Given your unwavering faith in the stated NAV perhaps you should invest in Digital 9 or Regional REIT? If you really believe these figures then there are certainly lots of bargains to be had ;)

[glavey] 08/5/2024 23:25

Redhorse2020
4 May '24 - 09:45 - 2615

" The true NAV is anyone’s guess. "

No, the true NAV is that which is published by JPM. It is anything other than that which is speculation.

[loganair] 08/5/2024 11:32

The MOEX Russia index rose 0.2% to hover near the 3,435 mark on Wednesday, halting a five-session losing streak as markets continued to assess how sanctions hamper the Russian corporate backdrop.

Gazprom shares edged higher after falling as much as 8% in the last week as investors speculated on future sales without European clients and extraordinarily high natural gas prices. Results released last week showed that the gas giant recorded its first annual loss in 24 years, and the outlook remained pessimistic as Europe’s LNG demand is muted and the future of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline remains uncertain.

In the meantime, miners were mixed with UGC and NLMK adding 1% each, while NorNickel, Mechel, and Polus traded in the red.

[loganair] 07/5/2024 10:45

The MOEX Russia Index was 0.4% down to hover at the 3,420 mark on Tuesday.

Oil giant Lukoil was among the top losers for Russian blue chips in the session, dropping nearly 4% as it traded ex-dividend. Its board previously decide to pay off nearly RUB 500 per share, yielding 6.1%.

In the meantime, Gazprom held its recent poor momentum total an 8% fall in the last three sessions. The giant previously reported its first annual loss in 20 years in 2023, as gas sales more than halved in the period.

Lastly, miners averaged losses halfway through the week, with Polus dropping 1.5% to lead losses for bullion-focused companies, while NorNickel lost nearly 1% to set the pace for base metal miners.

[loganair] 07/5/2024 07:48

Western sanctions against Russia are actually helping Russian industry and is more profitable for Russian industry as they now produce the finished product which is then exported to the country that is sanctioning them rather then exporting just the raw material to be finished in the same said country.

[loganair] 06/5/2024 18:03

The EU is importing twice as much fertilizer from Russia compared to last year and is also importing more then compared to before February 2022.

Why?

Because of sanctions on Russia natural gas which is the main input to produce nitrogen fertilizers the EU is producing less and its costing more so EU farmers are having to look else where to buy their fertilizers from and this else where is namely Russia as Russian fertiliser producers benefit from lower energy costs.

[loganair] 06/5/2024 17:48

Over the past month, India has been importing 1.8mln barrels of oil a day from Russia, that's 40% of India's total oil imports. The average price India paid was at a discount of just $7-8 per barrel to Brent.

Average price for Brent during April was $85 per barrel = India was paying on average $79 per barrel for Russian oil.

During in April Russia also exported 1.3mln barrels of oil per day to China and 400,000 barrels per day to Europe.

For the month of April as a whole Russia exported 5.25mln barrels of oil per day.

[loganair] 04/5/2024 11:32

Ukraine will at some point have to enter into talks with Russia to bring an end to the more than two-year-old war, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official and the country's foreign minister said in an interview published on Thursday.

President Zelenskiy has repeatedly ruled out talks with the Kremlin, and Russia has not been invited to talks in Switzerland scheduled for June on how to end the conflict.

"General Skibitsky says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says."

[loganair] 04/5/2024 10:36

I notice yesterday how the UK government travel advice to the old Polish, Hungarian and Romanian parts of the Ukraine have changed from Red to Yellow - I wonder if there is any significance in this?

[loganair] 04/5/2024 10:31

What eventually happens to JEMA's assets in Russia are all down to whether the bully boys of the United States act stupidity and foolishly or sensibly.

[robertball] 04/5/2024 10:05

This is a binary bet is it not. When peace comes and there is a move to normalisation then price could swiftly recover. The Russian economy has been doing rather well too. And I imagine that the Russian elite still want western wealth etc.Alternatively, assets are seized and game over.

[loganair] 04/5/2024 09:48

It seems to me as long as the United States do not do anything stupid or foolish when it comes to Russian state assets then its likely in the end JEMA Will be able to get back at least 50% of the value of their Russian securities and cash held in their 'S' account.

At 115 rub to the GBP JEMA's Russian securities and 'S' account are worth circa 560p, 50% = 280p + 45p for their non-Russian assets = somewhere around 325p.

[redhorse2020] 04/5/2024 08:45

The true NAV is anyone's guess. Think it was around 800p per share when I originally bought in prior to the invasion. Sadly a very distant memory now thanks to Mr Putin.

[neilyb675] 04/5/2024 08:33

Yes the whole valuation is wrong both times. If it was valuing at 10x the value in the accounts, then the share price should have dropped to 10p.

It didn't so there is this magic valuation being ascribed - that the war ends and some value will be given to what JEMA holds (and the frozen stuff becomes unfrozen).

When the NAV says 46p why do we still trade at much higher ?

Its due to the magic valuation.

Its all wrong, lol

[loganair] 04/5/2024 08:27

N657 - Not at all as the market was valuing JEMA's Russian Securities at 10x's the value in the companies accounts.

[neilyb675] 04/5/2024 08:19

As at 31st October 2023, the Russian securities were valued at £1.6m in the Company's accounts.

_____________________________________________________________

SP dropped from £1.30 to a low of about 70p, then recovered to 85-94p.

I think the market has got this wrong based on the info in the RNS.

[brwo349] 03/5/2024 22:47

The poor Russian young soldiers deserve better.
The momentum is going to shift back to Ukraine. These new weapons and the subsequent billions will make a big difference.

May 02
Hundreds of Russian Troops Gathered Out In The Open. They Didn’t Know The Ukrainians Had Aimed Four ATACMS Rockets At Them.
Potentially more than 100 Russians died as the ATACMS struck near Kuban in eastern Ukraine.