Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[ride daice] 30/4/2021 18:12

By all means go short. But it's reckless imho unless you have a fire extinguisher by your side.

[hsfinch] 30/4/2021 17:10

Agreed. JOG is a £30million company. Anybody chipping in with funds to cover the billion quid development cost of GBA either will require to be operator or will expect to see an experienced operator at the helm. And that ain't JOG. Its taken em 2 years to do a concept selection study ffs. Lets say Harbour Energy likes GBA, they'd probably want 40% tops. So there would need to someone else. Lets say they get Cairn Energy interested at 30%. Those 2 companies ain't paying more than back costs to get in to GBA. So JOG gets 2 heavy hitters and covers their back costs. That leaves em needing to raise £300million to cover their remaining 30%. Ain't gonna be easy...especially when the cash calls start coming through. They'll probably get squeezed again. And before you know it they've got 5% of a white elephant.

[kakapo1] 30/4/2021 09:09

words and more words from Arden who are endeavouring to hold the line with the growing number of once LTH who are becoming very nervious. In it's PR exercise, Arden believe there is potential to acquire new production assets. An interesting proposition when the record, so far, gives little confidence. As a company and an "Operator" JOG has little practical experience. The one company, Equinor, who PI's could have relied upon, walked. There can be no doubt Equinor, with it's wealth of experience within the UKCS, were not prepared to be an underling, they would also have seen in depth, all the seismic data, and, from a commercial viewpoint, did not like what they had seen.

This morning's RNS ( Carbon Policy) is making many wonder what is the point. Is the BOD desparate to maintain a News flow and consequential investor interest?. Could it be a subtle paving the way to employ another "Expert"?

[pro_s2009] 30/4/2021 08:13

Arden Update 30 April 2021

.......Conclusion:

JOG’s GBA project (based on the Buchan oil field, J2 and Verbier oil discoveries alongside a number of exploration prospects) has transformed the company’s asset position. It puts JOG in charge of 162mmboe of gross 2C economic resources, which the companyplans to use as the base for a new hub development in the area (planned to also facilitate tie-back development of any further JOG discoveries, and third-party fields). Progression of this project, with first oil planned for 2025, would make JOG an increasingly significant UK E&P company, likely to draw increasing amounts of investor attention.Going forward, we look for continuation of the important farm out process (on the main GBA development, but also likely including the surrounding exploration assets), which recently commenced and should provide an update during Q3 2021, with FEED from H2 2021 and then FID in H2 2022. There is also the ongoing potential for new production acquisitions as assets continue to change hands in the UK North Sea. This provides plenty of potential for news flow in the coming months, and beyond this a route towards first oil.

The recent £16.6m equity raise, adding to the c.£5m end 2020 cash holding, creates a strong funding position for the farm out process and initial FEED work. In our view, the market is yet to fully appreciate JOG’s current asset position, but progression through a successful farm out process and subsequent development work should act as important events in demonstrating the materiality and significance of this over 2021. We have a Buy recommendation and 750p price target.

[pro_s2009] 30/4/2021 07:17

News today : Carbon Policy



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[rbonnier] 29/4/2021 12:04

Timberrrrrrrrrrr!!!!

[rbonnier] 27/4/2021 17:42

Short !
SP at end of year 39P .Merry Christmas!!

[mariopeter] 22/4/2021 10:57

Not a bear Highly just watching the story unfold. Off the pitch currently.

[sinzu] 17/4/2021 23:13

Agree yes, excellent news indeed and a most valuable person to have on the board I’m sure of that.

[bwm2] 17/4/2021 17:11

Ithaca made me a chunk of change so in my view very good news indeed

[kakapo1] 16/4/2021 16:39

Why should I be upset chessman? Was paying attention however as I mentioned several days ago a TP1 should land this week once the Placing Funders notified which is exactly what has happened with Amati's notification. There are still 8m+ to be notified. The large transaction to which you refer did not amount to 1.64m shares.

If as you suggest the large transaction was anything other than a funder cross-selling, why did the share price not react more positively?

[x54v] 16/4/2021 16:35

Strong buying pressure into the close.

Bodes well for a continuation on Monday.

[chessman2] 16/4/2021 16:20

kakapo1, I hope you're not upset about the share price going up and are happy to see holders benefiting.

If you had been paying attention you would have noticed a huge number of shares going through in the market 2/3 days ago.

[chessman2] 16/4/2021 16:20

kakapo1, I hope you're not upset about the share price going up and are happy to see holders benefiting.

If you had been paying attention you would have noticed a huge number of shares going through in the market 2/3 days ago.

[kakapo1] 16/4/2021 15:52

Good grief, do'nt the clever investors here realise Amati are one of the Institutions who bid in the Placing. They picked up 1.64m shares. Who has acquired the remaining 8m?

[chessman2] 16/4/2021 15:46

Yes this is good news and should start an upward movement!!

[x54v] 16/4/2021 15:41

Amati have acquired 5.15%

[thedudie] 15/4/2021 11:51

The market shareprice is telling you that it is risked at somewhere around 10%. Ignoring and/or compressing the timescales - if it were definitely happening it would be (pick a number) £15 a share so maybe the share price would be around 1/2 of the company perceived NAV (which I thought was around £30- but could be wrong). It is about 10% of that £15.

The market always prices visible risk significantly to the downside so the chances are probably in reality much greater than 10% - I personally suspect the chance of it happening are somewhere around 25%-33%.

Risk is always huge until it is not.
How many times do company share prices in all types of sectors trend towards 0 before an event triggers a huge company recovery and share price recovery to many multiples of the original. Of course in some cases some companies do indeed go bust ( as a shareprice trending to 0 implies).

IMO JOG is worthy of investment BUT only as part of a balanced portfolio of risk.
I wouldn't put the house on it. And if it fails it will make limited difference to me.

[mariopeter] 15/4/2021 11:11

Thanks for the posts Hihly and JTS. Difference of opinion indeed. I do want holders here to sell their JOG shares for more than they paid but I have alot of respect for JLS and would urge holders to read his posts carefully as there are warnings there which are unbiased as far as I can tell. If the oil industry feels "no way" then JOG have perhaps a bigger mountain to climb than the BODs portray.

The City view I think can be summed up :

IT will not happen (otherwise the share price would be higher) but FOMO compels us to have exposure (i judge that by the latest fundraise) OR something was disclosed that is not well known. Finely balanced but weighted in favour of "no way".

Question is will a part of the story unfold that enables shareholders to exit profitably later. The answer to that is..... Highly probable. Shareholders will do well to not forget the JLS warnings and not sit here like ducks on eggs. Imho.