Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[jtsouthern146] 08/5/2021 19:20

This video assessment of JOG that's been put up has really got your knickers in a twist hasn't it! And for some reason you're naming me and trying to pick a fight?

Of course i've watched it and will suggest you're getting a little overly worked up about not a lot of anything so perhaps pour a gin. it is the weekend.

My take since you obviously want to hear it before drowning it out with endless positive posts...

They essentially attempt to show in this video with some simple math/concept how a case of 44mmbbls remaining in the Buchan field could play out.

As you'll surely agree, it is evident that an outcome of 44mmbbls further recovery within field life from Buchan field is very possible. See link to CPR summary at bottom if not clear. Table B is to my knowledge the only released assessment of 'Development Pending' resources for the Buchan field and clearly states a 1C (highest confidence) case of 45mmbbls. Or are you going to disagree with the experts. So nothing controversial there.

So very close to the case they appear to lay out in video. Their analysis is pretty simple and easily digestible. it shows approx. 100mmbbls dry oil above the contact so stick 44% recovery factor on that and hey presto. They then outline that to get more you have to improve recovery below contact which seems obvious.

Note that (this is important and we may be in egg sucking territory here) when a field gets sanctioned 1C becomes 1P. 1P is what gets described as 'proved reserves'.

Seems nice and logical that a proved case would assume no increase to the recovery of the swept oil below the contact and simply lets OWC keep trucking up until you top out and water out producers.

As you rightly say they talk of drilling through contact which is clearly a misunderstanding on their part but that doesn't change the point above. Inject some water to speed up the process of course as you're not reliant on slow production to let the aquifer keep up. Guess other point they make it's fractured & oil-wet so doing that isn't without risk.

So whats' got you all worked up here?

The bit they dont go into detail on is economics beyond playing their interpretation of the JOG view. Quickly though.. £1bln capital plus say 10 years opex at 100M in proved case is about $3bln (plus all big projects have some cost growth no history lesson needed there). Doesn't give you much margin. 45mmbbls * 50$/bbl = $2.25bln (20 year real terms crude average is close to 50 but an oil price debate serves no one).

So billions locked up over a very long time for what purpose. Of course there's a range of outcomes but robustness is key.

What matters is how a project ranks globally for capital so pick any price to make the comparison of projects. So although they don't go into economics and they perhaps should have it's clear why they're sceptical. Of course economics would be run on p50 too by any farm-in but 50% of the time that's optimistic so I imagine they'd be very very interested in a proved reserves case. I imagine this is why they're so keen to sell this Hub idea.




Two other points of note since you've got me going:

It is often stated that Buchan is 33 API light sweet crude. Most the North sea is around that. Lancaster was 38 for heavens sake which is even better. For a discussion on the commerciality of a field unless its abnormal the crude API doesn't normally feature in any major way, it's not a critical value driver so why is attention constantly drawn to it.

Secondly:
You go on about Vysus and are perhaps suggesting they've signed off on the reserves estimates here? Where is your evidence of that. I read.. "This project workstream has now been independently peer reviewed as part of a wider scope reviewing the development concept by Vysus Group". Reviewing a workstream then?

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

[highlyunlikely] 08/5/2021 17:21

....."It's perhaps time a few on HERE (inc you JRS) stopped to consider how silly they're making themselves look"....................."I also ignore those who make videos that expose their lack of research, knowledge and expertise in the subject THEY'RE blathering about. If nothing else, I can at least spell...........

[thedudie] 08/5/2021 12:58

I thought the comments saying JOG must be drilling below the OWC to get the recovery upto 54% was most telling of the level of competence of the two clowns.

The whole argument was based on trying to rubbish the 54%, even drawing the OWC a few 10s of metres from the top of the structure.

The original structure was 585m tall

Jog say they have 300m of dry oil
Jog say they will drill laterals "high" in the structure.
Jog say they will have water injection for pressure support rather than weak aquifer.
JOG and their advisors know the geology.

You could argue with any of those points but the clowns didn't.

The original structure was not a uniform column but if it was - taking 29% out the first 285m over the last 36 years implies > 58% would be feasible if you were pumping from right at the top of the structure (which clearly they wont be).

Assuming the provisos that JOG are suggesting ie optimal location of wells / horizontals / water inj etc the rate doesn't look too far wrong to me.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jog looked at legal options.

[highlyunlikely] 08/5/2021 11:16

"The truth" about this field...............blah blah blah................

What truth? The truth according to a clown who doesn't seem to know the first thing about oil, who tells us he's had a phone call from someone he knows who's big in the oil world (why not tell us his name?) who's said there's no way JOG's going to get anywhere close to the recovery levels presently anticipated? Odd that the clown and his mate should have concluded, without having access to any of the relevant data except what JOG has put in the public domain, that they know better than Sclumberger and Vysus, not to mention a whole bunch of qualified and experienced oil professionals engaged by JOG who've spent - along with JOG's own people - 32,000 hours on delivering concept select. Even the bald bloke in the video looked embarrassed. The clown's mate should have told him Talisman ceased to exist (acquired by Repsol years ago); shows how much research he's done before spewing out his cr*p.
His mate might also have told him JOG didn't drill the Verbier wells either - Equinor was the operator and determined where the appraisal well should be drilled. Have a look at where JOG has assessed the oil will flow from - this has never changed. As for you, kakapoo, seems to me you could do with attending a course or two about how the world works. You're very noisy for someone who demonstrates so little understanding of business and how to go about it. You describe me as the resident guru and present me as a ramper, which I find offensive, having forgotten more about business and how it and the markets work than you'd be able to understand in another 5 lifetimes. My "ramping" was basically about me preferring the opinions of named experts with unblemished international reputations working with the latest available data and methodology, to those of a clown allegedly advised by an unnamed Mr Big, when it's as plain as a pikestaff the clown knows little or nothing about the subject he's making a fool of himself talking about. It's perhaps time a few on his (inc you JRS) stopped to consider how silly they're making themselves look in their frenzy to rubbish JOG and its efforts. As I said in my post on the other board: "Each individual should form his/her own views - oil is a high risk business and there are no guarantees". It's about assessment of risk and working out if the positives outweigh the negatives. In reaching individual conclusions, my tendency is to discount or ignore altogether the views of those who demonstrate they struggle on the mental front.I also ignore those who make videos that expose their lack of research, knowledge and expertise in the subject their blathering about. DYOR

[chessman2] 07/5/2021 22:57

The alleged sells which were published after trading ended yesterday appear to have been buys, thus the reason for the share price increasing despite late sells this afternoon.

Buys of 500,000 indicate to me that someone is interested in the project. I'm holding and waiting for the fun to start!!

[kakapo1] 07/5/2021 20:01

Dear chap where are the buyers? Do you think MM's maybe holding to fill an order?

Hope your holding pays off as you expect, but do'nt forget the Old Maxim dear boy.

Never invest more than you are prepared to lose.

Do view the Youtube presentation but do'nt let it give you nightmares!!

[jtsouthern146] 07/5/2021 19:59

The truth about this field is emerging and is partly told in that video

[redrag1] 07/5/2021 19:30

mmmm - huge sales? For every seller there is a buyer dear chap! Volume the day before was larger and also suggested as ‘sales’ and yet up we go. Ho hum time will tell!

[kakapo1] 07/5/2021 19:14

Sorry to repeat naimanka74 has already posted. Interested investors should view the article. It makes very interesting veiwing.

Then read the dissitation on the other board by the resident company guru, who true to form regards every non believer as brain dead.

Someone is worried seeing the huge sales before the bell.

[redrag1] 07/5/2021 17:56

....unlike you Rbonnier who’s short is one of the more foolhardy things i’ve seen since 600 gallant souls rode their horses into the valley of death. You may of course be brilliantly right which will be expensive for me but in the event of a farm out I think the first offer you will see to cover your short will have a 3 handle. Still pays your money...schadenfreude was invented for one of us to have a good long laugh at the other.
For the chartists amongst you, the weekly chart is a thing of beauty! Slip down to the MAs find support and bounce hard.

[chessman2] 07/5/2021 17:32

Very pleased to see the higher price at the end of the day.

I'm confident the directors know the way forward and am happy to continue holding my shedful.

[rbonnier] 07/5/2021 17:11

Probably trying to ramp up the share price so their cronies who bought at 165 can get out unscathed!

[naimanka74] 07/5/2021 12:53

You are correct, wonder how much Malcy gets paid ?

This presentation nails it pretty much as best I can tell

hxxps://youtu.be/_3-_uQXbzrw

Hype=BS typically

[kakapo1] 07/5/2021 09:17

The perpetual wheeling out of Financial "Experts", Malcy, Arden, WH Ireland and now Finncap, should make Investors wonder "Why" so much ramping. The market has only reacted in one way so perhaps they are mentally challenged as the " Intelligentia" would have gullible investors believe

[rbonnier] 07/5/2021 06:55

Even Malcy is trying to ramp the share price he's usually regurgitating the company's rns and he was calling £7 a share yesterday!!!

[kakapo1] 06/5/2021 21:58

bones698 if your comment is aimed at my post. Read again as the point I am making is Execs are awarded huge pay increases and PI's are seeing their investment go down the pan, which seems to be what you are saying. I have little faith in the BOD. The PR machine, WH Ireland, are in overdrive again.

[kakapo1] 06/5/2021 15:01

- 17% (minus)

[kakapo1] 06/5/2021 11:16

Interesting Data

Remuneration increases net of Bonus

yr end 31/12/19 31/12/20 2year Increase

AB 23% 41% 74%

RL 20% 39% 66%


SP performance For the Account years ending as above

-7.5% (150p) 17% (124.5p)

Traders will, because of their strategy extrapolate different highs and lows, but for LTH's end of yr share price gives an indication where value is going.

[rbonnier] 04/5/2021 16:58

Mms Cranking over those Dreaded Chainsaws as they continue to trim the price of this Turkey sub 100P .

[36redhill] 04/5/2021 07:34

ShareSpending spree to send oil prices soaringReopening of global economy set to lead to a record jump in demand for crude and copperTom ReesTim WallaceOIL and metal prices are poised to surge in coming months as Britain and the US launch a once-in-a-generation infrastructure spending spree and the global economy roars back to life.Market strategists are bracing for the biggest jump in oil demand ever after drivers returned to the roads en masse. Crude is forecast to hit its highest level in three years, ultimately driving prices higher at the pump.Meanwhile president Joe Biden is about to launch a $2 trillion (£1.5 trillion) programme to rebuild America's crumbling roads and bridges, while in the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has talked about the need for a recovery led by investment in green energy.Goldman Sachs has predicted a 14pc jump in commodity prices over the next six months, pushing a broad measure of metals and oil up to its highest level in more than six years.The Wall Street bank expects copper to rise by over 10pc to reach more than $11,000 per ton by the first quarter of 2022, while Brent crude, the UK benchmark oil price, is set to hit $80 per barrel – a level not reached since 2018. Goldman expects demand to climb by 5.2m barrels per day over the next six months, 50pc larger than the previous record increase.Metal and oil prices have bounced back sharply from last year's nadir when swathes of factories were shut and millions of drivers stayed home. In America, oil briefly entered negative territory because demand had dropped so low that the country started to run out of storage space.'Metal and oil prices have bounced back sharply'A wave of consumer spending is now being predicted as vaccines bring the crisis to an end. There are fears that the infrastructure splurge could even lead to some shortages, particularly of metals required for clean energy investment and electric vehicles.Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman, said: "It is important to remember that commodity markets are driven by volume, or the level of demand. The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand – a change which supply cannot match – must not be understated."He said president Biden's New Deal-style spending on the green agenda will be crucial to pushing up prices, with copper-intensive climate spending at the centre of surging demand.The White House is reportedly planning to generate 80pc of the US's power from renewable sources by 2030.John Meyer, head of research at share price Angel, said the push is sure to drive strong demand for copper and rare earth commodities essential for computing and battery production.He said: "Logistics, disruption, raw materials and Covid-19 working practices are all coming together to fuel inflation." The spending jump is already feeding through to higher inflation. Oil's sharp recovery has pushed petrol prices in the UK up to an average of more than £1.25 and diesel has climbed to almost £1.30 per litre, up from £1.15 and £1.20 respectively at the start of this year and below £1.10 and £1.15 at this point in 2020.British factories are reporting the steepest increase in input prices for four years, according to PMI business surveys run by IHS Markit. Manufacturers in turn are passing on those costs, with price hikes on a scale not experienced for a decade.