Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[jtsouthern146] 15/4/2021 10:54

And that’s it. I’m signing off. A stupid debate with bean counters and no oil and gas professionals leads nowhere. Like any debate really.

Please don’t ask me any more direct questions as they generally make me want to respond!

I’m sure some will say ‘good riddance’!

[jtsouthern146] 15/4/2021 10:39

One more on your note HighlyUnlikely.

"It had already produced c.150mmboe and was certified in a CPR whilst in the former licensee’s “ownershipR21; still to contain recoverable reserves of c.80mmboe"

You are correct that someone (highly competent with all the same tools and ideas available) did an estimation before walking off and seemingly not even attempting to sell it.

Resource estimates have a very wide range. Do you happen to know what that range was and where 80mmboe sat in that range?

[jtsouthern146] 15/4/2021 09:04

HighlyUnlikely - Since you have addressed me directly I shall respond directly then call it quits here. I hope I have the self-discipline to stay off this board because of the behavior, the lack of informed views & the hypocrisy.

Firstly - You MISREPRESENT my view which i find disappointing from an educated former accountancy partner as you're keen for me to know.

You can retract the statement that I am rubbishing or disagreeing with any experts it is not true. Yes I have claimed to have a long history in the North Sea when asked & nothing more than that. Not sure why backgrounds matter. What matters are facts and observations. Here are some below.

And you are also wrong in your assertion that I hold this stock; as i've said before.., I used to at the Verbier exploration stage. When the appraisal well found no reservoir I got out. It's generally what happens when you appraise to prove up a commercial volume and find nothing; you get out. As stated in a previous detailed post I have seen no evidence presented of verbier commerciality to date by the company or its contractors though please do point me to it.

1) I have never said I disagree with 'the experts'. What I have done is point out the 172mmbbls have only been quoted by JOG to my knowledge. I have seen no update to Rockflow CPR supporting this view. Their last view shown is sub 100

2) The 172mbbls is composed mainly of 120 (thereabouts) from Buchan. This is quoted from a (again by JOG, not Rockflow the CPR provider or by Schlumberger directly) Schlumberger study. I have not disputed this. Every field has a technical recovery factor. The point is that in a setting offshore fields don't come close to technical recovery factors

3) Other North Sea Devonian fields achieve nothing close to 55% recovery

4) A comparison to hurricane is not ridiculous, you're simply misinformed. Hurricane was/is a novel play with high risk. It's a nice and digestible idea that significant production de-risks this but overlooks the simple fact that the future production method (water injection) is COMPLETELY different to the past (depletion)

So no I don't disagree with the experts as you strongly assert, I am fully aligned with their numbers. It is the interpretation of those numbers by those on this forum that I find interesting. And many in industry will have seen many fields fall short of their estimates for things that were deemed obvious afterwards.

So HighlyUnlikely.. good luck and I actually mean that sincerely. Differences of opinion are healthy, they make life interesting.

[kakapo1] 15/4/2021 08:47

There you have it, seems the wheel has well and truly come off the PR Machine.

Many of us here have been questioning the remunerations, option awards, the bulging Management Team, all at the expense of Ordinary Shareholders.

The Epistle really puts the writing firmly on the Wall.

[highlyunlikely] 15/4/2021 02:09

Thanks chessman (and you, CW) for your kind comments. They're much appreciated. Only the good die young so I should be ok :-). 70's quite young isn't it? Help..................arrrghhhh................. plop :-(

No matter. Move on.

I see my version of War and Peace (it HAS to be a record - 172m words.........) didn't make it onto the front page (so to speak). Feel free to copy and paste it on the other board if you think it's appropriate, chessman. I'm not the only person with a reasonable holding to feel the same about the big pay hikes and bonus and option awards, before shareholders have seen any real return via an increased share price

There's no point whining on.It is as it is. As I've said, hopefully what I can't come to terms with won't make a great deal of difference to the outcome. I just don't like the taste of what's been served up of late.

Yawn................

[daler1966] 14/4/2021 19:10

Some Big Buys ?

[chessman2] 14/4/2021 19:00

A brilliant and most interesting post which probably summaries the positions of many holders.

Many thanks for taking the time to put the various points on this board.

I’m still holding and am also positive about a good future.

Best Wishes

chessman

[kakapo1] 14/4/2021 14:04

redrag thanks. There are some who are not clever with the language used, however as I know from an event involving private business affairs, it is not easy to obtain a Court Order. The Police do'nt want to know and therefore without their involvement a Court will only consider if an individual throws a lot of money at the case.

I began my investment here over 4 years ago, the entry of Schroders gave confidence
Their exit blunted confidence and when Equinor departed, that was a warning to me. However I hung on until a couple of months ago when I was able to retrieve virtually all my initial investment. I retain a token number of shares and try to express what I have learnt with JOG over time. These kind of investments come with very high risk and conversely very high rewards. Sometimes an investor should depart from sentiment and undertake a risk assessment. NOt easy because most do not wish to admit being wrong and moreover are influenced by that illusive pot of Gold. It may happen here, but weighing up all the Factors, Internal and External. imo the eventual outcome may well be disappointing.

The take-up of shares(80%) to qualifying Investors must be a concern to the BOD, who must be hoping the share price will climb to pacify the New Instituional investors.
As always time will tell.

DYOR GLA

[catswhiskas] 14/4/2021 09:10

Down it goes below the placing price just as I said it would .Next stop 150P bid.

[redrag1] 14/4/2021 07:47

Actually Kakapo i will withdraw those comments! In my muddled age ridden state i had you confused with the various other ne’er-be-goods that dwell in this board.
I won’t however withdraw the comment that i do believe that the powers that be under court order can reveal the who’s and where’s if needed.
Right move on. Funding done. And an excellent new NED appointment on board.

[kakapo1] 13/4/2021 20:02

redrag I suggest you withdraw those remarks. I am not in the position you you put forward. Was merely pointing out from personal experience ( I wished to expose someone who had made contemptable statements) The Legalities required.

Would you be good enough to point out any statements I have made?
I am not worried one iota, but maybe you should bem making statement without validation.
Withdraw and we will say no more about it>

[redrag1] 13/4/2021 19:28

That sounded a little worried KakaPo? Trust me if the powers that be decide that you are being libellous you can pretend to hide. I’m pretty sure Mr Benitz and co will be doing all in their power to bring you and your fellow inhabitants of the sewers to heel.
That doesn’t include you JTS - i have respect for much of what you write and whilst i happen to disagree with it it’s well written and argued. If you are right I have a tricky conversation with h-i-d but i quite like this horse.

[kakapo1] 13/4/2021 16:54

Appointment of another expert must make PI's wonder if the Team are so ambitious to almost be going it alone. Could Les be a "stalking horse" for Repsol Sinopec?

Anyone who believes posters details can be obtained from the IP address, need to think again. The Data protection act makes it illegal unless a Court Order is obtained, which takes time and considerable evidence to convince a JUdge. If it were that easy and with the stuff published on Media Platforms, the Courts would be full of applications.

[catswhiskas] 13/4/2021 14:25

More directors salaries to fork out for to manage a rusty old platform lol !

[jtsouthern146] 13/4/2021 09:11

mmmm Buchan Alpha on marine traffic appears to be somewhere full of superyachts if you google earth it.. must be a different vessel

[jtsouthern146] 13/4/2021 08:49

Gowlane I was also reading about Total FID. However essentially that argument is along the lines of (am broad brushing a bit) "A project can fly in somewhere less politically stable so surely every project in the CNS should fly" is not a particularly good argument in my view. If that's the case then is there ever grounds to not like a CNS project!? Develop every field going! In HighlyUnlikelys top school where he clearly received in his opinion a great education it wouldn't stand up to scrutiny in the debating society.

Highlyunlikely are you just lumping everybody with a strong view opposed to your own as 'uneducated'? Seems a strange approach. I'd suggest there is a certain hypocrisy in you demeanour. Your line just boils down to "you can't disagree with experts". Is it not possible to have a different view on the data that has been released on Buchan? If you applied your logic to MANY other developments (Hurricane being the current obvious one) then you'd have also not accepted any arguments that would have proved correct.

But 'trust the experts' is of course an understandable approach to take in any situation. Let me ask you this, even if you do trust the experts is the expert (CPR) view actually aligned with the statements made about recoverables?

[kakapo1] 12/4/2021 19:26

chessman who are the uneducated posters?

[chessman2] 12/4/2021 12:03

How nice to get two consecutive interesting posts instead of the rubbish from uneducated posters previously.

FWIW I remain a confident holder and fully expect the share price to increase steadily over the next few months.

[highlyunlikely] 12/4/2021 11:19

I'm sorry gowlane, but your post doesn't cut the mustard. It's far too sensible and balanced. Plus you can also spell, which suggests you might have been in receipt of a recognised form of education. You'll be telling us next there's no platform going rusty at Buchan and it's also quite likely you understand (for instance) what share options are and how a host of other matters work in the real world of business. Note that the trash that's posted about JOG's prospects is in direct conflict with the views and professional opinions of acknowledged industry experts who've forgotten more about the industry than the garbage-writers'ever knew in the first place. More than one of such people are evidently too uneducated to appreciate that making allegations of dishonesty of (in this case) JOG's CEO (who has been made aware of what, in particular, wolfsonshaz - opens up the writer to legal action for libel. Individuals can't hide behind 'noms de plume' - writers' IP addresses can easily be traced. Others are also guilty. No-one can have any legitimate complaint against posters who don't share the same views most holders have about their investments here - "fan clubs" are no use to anyone. The posters on here talking JOG down largely appear to be thoroughly unpleasant individuals whose logic, spelling and grammar is indicative of a poor education (meaning their understanding of complex situations can safely be ignored). I'd prefer not to comment on their likely integrity.

[gowlane] 12/4/2021 00:53

Well you have certainly been right so far Jtsouthern, the market has been unimpressed by this project to date.

However Total have just signed off on several agreements in Uganda, which are preliminary to the FID on the Lake Albert discoveries which contain about 1.5bn recoverable bbls.

If memory serves this is going to require up to $20Bn investment in field development, refinery and pipeline costs.

Mainly funded by both Total and CNOC, it seems a big bet on political stability in both Uganda and Tanzania.

Surely to goodness if this programme gets the FID soon then JOG must have a chance in the Central North Sea?

[kakapo1] 10/4/2021 13:43

The Placing shares were allocated on 5th April, can we expect a TP1 early next week?

[wolfsonshaz] 09/4/2021 11:47

It’s droppin u av been warned