Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[winnet] 14/2/2024 09:58

I did say i was speculating, Tom. I'm just thinking about what I would do if I was PB.

[tom111] 14/2/2024 09:47

We dont know if our bid will be accepted yet,jumping the gun somewhat

[pughman] 14/2/2024 09:43

Over 50% of 2024 production with today's news and Akatara producing for 6 months will come from Australia, where costs seem to be rising inexorably. If yesterday's deal goes through, that will rise to over 80%. MT said Malaysia offered far more value, if there are so many deals out there, why are Australian assets dominating the JSE portfolio.

[nigelpm] 14/2/2024 09:30

Certainly, being suspended it gives no chance for any upside to be realised in the market so there might be an opportunity to put forward a cheeky bid that all shareholders may have to consider. It would be a nice problem to have but think it unlikely.

[winnet] 14/2/2024 09:27

Yeah, speculating obviously, but they'll want to get their money back and not on the never-never, like-us brave/stupid souls. So my guess would be private at 50p.

Most of us would take that from here and would still leave room for Tyrus to coin it with a 75k/boed business. Blakley walks off into the executive care home. Job done.

[nigelpm] 14/2/2024 09:12

What - you think Tyrus will bid at say 45p and that'll be that?

It is certainly possible.

[winnet] 14/2/2024 08:44

My bet, because PB is old and highly incentivized to sell, is that JSE will never trade again. Let's wait and see. I cannot see equity being issued again, simply because Tyrus will not allow it. If they get the preferred bidder status, then I reckon all bets are off.

[nigelpm] 14/2/2024 07:38

Ah yes I see...if more equity was issued to Woodside. Good point... Also note rbl process remains on track..

[fardels bear] 14/2/2024 07:36

I think he means empirically, once the deal is done. 30 percent of an enlarged number of shares would enable Tyres to buy more without hitting TO threshold.

[nigelpm] 14/2/2024 07:28

How do you mean? They can't increase their stake in jse just because shares are suspended. Good to see completion RNS. That's one ticked off list.

[mount teide] 14/2/2024 07:27

Confirmation of the second tranch of CWLH shareholding now complete, with three big circa 650,000 bbl lifts net to JSE expected during the next 12 months - that's circa $162m of relatively low cost revenue at $82 Brent.

[kaos3] 14/2/2024 07:21

Tyrus will be able to allocate much more capital to jse assets without triggering TO if the deal goes through.

Shares could be bought from the new owner. Who will get shares issued to as a payment. All agreed up front.

Mix of new shares, debt and seller finance would be great.

[1ajm] 14/2/2024 02:26

We can just expect that share suspension wasn't viewed as a positive to bidding for the deal. Maybe that would be ridiculous. I don't know why they would do that, I mean I do really but I don't wish to think JSE are that devious or have any reason to believe they are.

[yasx] 14/2/2024 02:09

Re dilution - I think it can be safely stated that if thr deal proceeds (big if), then they won’t be issuing equity for the same. That is simply inconceivable.

As for whatever else is really going on, over the past six months this just has a whiff of there is more to this than meets the eye.

[1ajm] 14/2/2024 01:20

Well said Pughman.

Some holders just want to pretend it isn't happening I presume. Or delusional enough even now to not think, hang on this COULD be bad. I guess I've come to query if the RNS's are, while being factually correct, giving an honest overall picture. The last few have had some very sneaky caveats.

We're locked in now. I don't think people think about the potential implications of that. Good news we will all be happy, bad news my personal haters on here may understand my point, although given the reaction my posts get from some, they may be locked in here regardless. Down with the ship, if it comes to that in the future. At what point would they sell?

On the chance JSE get it (?), there's going to be a new wall of financing concerns which may play out either way still. Any degree of share dilution would be offensive, but we are a financing option for them and nothing more. As MT mentions a better than expected back date or a very slow acquisition may help (not maari slow please), as well as a good deal and fast ROI from the new production. Let's not think about if there is some ridiculous decommissioning fund commitment that is multiple times bigger than the purchase price but not included as part of the headline purchase price.

I've topped up several times when the share price has reached sub 30p in the last 12 months+ and not sold. Although this has brought my average down, Given we're here to make profit and not gain moral applause for our trading style it has been a poor decision to hold since the first Montara shut in and averaging down can't go on forever. Hindsight is 20/20 of course.

This feels like an awkward time for share suspension but they needed to do something drastic, which they have. I don't think JSE will be losing any sleep with the shares being suspended. Now we can only wait. I personally don't think the shorters will be too worried, I'm more worried about myself as a holder, good RBL results, CWLH completion and maybe even Akatara build up could happen during share suspension and quickly forgotten by the market if trading resumes on the failure of the proposed deal. Of course, success of the deal and no mishaps between now and then could cause a very strong open ( I truly hope that is what happens for all the holders). But I will never be a person to only think about one outlook and not the other. Sorry. I sit on the fence more than others, even when financially I am on one side of the fence.

Myself and the small amount of posters on this board has absolutely no ability to control the price or what JSE do. Still it does amaze me how one sided posters are and how offended they get.

Of course I am willing to have my mind changed. Maybe this is an absolutely amazing opportunity for JSE and maybe I should have absolutely no concerns about the size or location of it. Patience does not seem to be something AIM oilers can afford to have unfortunately and recently here it seems to have lead to unforced errors. On a final note, JSE not getting this does put it back in the position it was at before today which isn't exactly great so at this point just go for it. All-in. H2 would have been preferred, maybe it will still be ongoing in some capacity in H2.

I think I've been fair there and hope it goes well for all. Now I await the name calling and silly outbursts many posters offer, to which I humour and enjoy responding to far more than I should, luckily the opinions of most people on here are meaningless and my thoughts and opinions are equally meaningless to them, the way of the internet.

GLA. Hope it goes well over the next few months.

[pughman] 13/2/2024 22:56

If you're a JSE shareholder and your not an unhappy punter, you're delusional.

[mount teide] 13/2/2024 21:29

I123 - There are many ways to structure a major O&G deal to minimise debt and dilution. Check out Savannah Energy's ($324m market cap) proposed acquisition of the assets of Petronas in South Sudan for a headline price of $1.25bn.

The deal has an effective economic date of 1st Jan 2022 - which means that for an expected completion date during Q2/2024, SAVE will have accrued a massive 2.25-2.50 years of production earnings credit at an average of $91.71/bbl Brent for circa 55,000 bopd net, to take off the $1.25bn headline price.

Suggesting the cash required to finance the deal is now likely to be a tiny fraction of the $1.25bn headline price.....thereby offering the prospect of the actual sum due on completion potentially being able to be financed without the need for a loan or dilution.........loose change for a 55,000 bopd asset with huge reinvestment potential and a long reserve life.

[nigelpm] 13/2/2024 21:23

I'm not close enough to the industry but surely it's moving away from requiring staff to be located offshore?

[impossible123] 13/2/2024 20:57

Can JSE seriously compete with Carlyle and Hibiscus Petroleum for these assets of Woodside? Carlyle is cash-rich, and Hibiscus has a mcap 3x that of JSE; the Woodside assets for sale is rumoured to be valued at about $500m.

And, assuming JSE wins the bid how will JSE pay for this latest acquisition? A $500m acquisition from JSE valued at £127m is a mega fund raise, correct? How'd this be achieved with dilution? Buy now, pay later with proceeds from these new assets?

I think JSE is attempting/embarking on something so monumental is very ambitious (I understand it's company transformational) so soon after the debacle of Montara and Stag is beyond the management team.

I hope post suspension the share price is not below 23p. Retail investors have experienced a horrid time the last 12 months.

[trump45] 13/2/2024 20:27

The shares have been going down since the update in January and across many small oilers. We actually had a small rise the other day. I personally don't think it's anything to do with it. Had we not had to suspend I think this news would have given a decent rise. It shows that large deals can be backed.

[1ajm] 13/2/2024 20:09

I think shares went down when news leaked.

I'm not sure they are the favourite. Smells off.