Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 19/1/2022 13:12

Zen and affc21 - good to hear your thoughts.

Likewise, hope any here that were also in ADV are okay and did not invest beyond what they felt comfortable with.

As you say, at the start TXP's attraction was having cash flow from existing production to act as downside protection for the high impact Ortoire exploration drilling programme - a salutary lesson.

[thommie] 19/1/2022 12:18

What do you guys think of panr? I still hold the free shares there after derisking my original investment. After todays experience with ADV I also tend to find another saver haven...

[affc21] 19/1/2022 11:59

MT,We are all human and liable to make errors in judgements.Also got hit this morning with ADV, have sold out and will be a bit wiser in future investments, I hope...Hope all are well here, considering the above news.Anyway things should be looking a lot brighter here come results.That should cheer us up...

[zengas] 19/1/2022 11:58

O/T MT

ADVs problem is that it had no other decent asset to fall back on such as production or reserves and now left exposed. Their seismic interpretation has with hindsight imo been more riskier than they beleived themselves and there doesn't appear much cash left at all. Taken a hit there myself and a lesson from it.

At least TXP at the start had core production including Arrow now as well. I think JSEs riskiest wells were the Montara or Skua toe/heel for trapped oil. I hope sooner or later they drill some of the exploration potential around Montara where you're not putting the company at any exceptional risk on a one shot wonder/cost of funds, no matter how good the COS is risked.

Edit - would add that i thought the ADV CEO was rowing back abit on the risk aspect in yesterdays RNS but i didn't act on it.

[mount teide] 19/1/2022 11:09

O/T - ADV - after this morning's very disappointing Buffalo 10 drilling update; demonstrating that even high quality seismic and modern day processing techniques are not infallible....elected to take the hit on the chin and used the funds raised to add to the JSE and AXL holdings.

Lesson learned?

With a pair of rose-tinted hindsight glasses pulled firmly onto the bridge of the nose ..... the result reminded me of what Paul Blakely said during an investor presentation I attended.....
"You'll never find me drilling an exploration well.......We buy carefully screened producing assets with excellent re-investment potential in O&G basins we know well"

[gord959] 18/1/2022 22:59

As we approach the all-time high JSE price previously experienced back in late 2019 I just pulled up a very loose comparison of what things looked like then for the company versus now (from what had most recently been publicly disclosed):

Known as of Dec 31, 2019 (approx when we last hit high 90p's)

Net Cash: USD 14.1MM
Production Outlook: 13.5K to 14.5K boe/d (excluding Maari)
Brent Price: Approx USD 66/barrel

Now:
Net Cash: USD 94.4MM (including Montara June lifting)
Production Outlook: 20K+ boe/d (excluding Maari)
Brent: Approx USD 88/barrel

-Note the most recently reported net cash position was as of June 30th, 2021, even with their recent capex it is likely higher than that now, we will find out shortly at the next operational update
-Reserves have also grown with the acquisitions of Lemang and PM
-Should Maari complete it will have accrued 2 additional years of operational cashflow to JSE and a much large payment on completion as others here have pointed out

As always, DYOR.

[mount teide] 18/1/2022 22:12

Brent at $88.50 - Goldman raises Brent Spot forecast to $105 in 2023 and $96 a barrel in 2022.

Goldman Sachs Sees $105 Oil In 2023 - Oilprice.com today

'Oil prices could hit $100 this year and rise to $105 per barrel in 2023, on the back of a “surprisingly large deficit” on the oil market now due to the much milder and potentially briefer impact of Omicron on oil demand, Goldman Sachs says.

“Importantly, we are not forecasting Brent trading above $100/bbl on an argument of running out of oil as the shale resources is still large and elastic,” Goldman Sachs strategists including Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie wrote in a note to clients dated Monday, as carried by ZeroHedge.

Due to gas-to-oil substitution, supply disappointments, and stronger-than-expected demand in Q4 2021, OECD inventories are set to dip by the summer to their lowest levels since 2000, Goldman’s analysts note. Moreover, OPEC+ spare capacity is also set to decline to historically low levels of around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd).

“At $85/bbl, the market would remain at such critical levels, insufficient buffers relative to demand and supply volatilities, through 2023,” Goldman Sachs said.

As a result of these fundamentals, the bank’s Brent spot forecast is for $105 in 2023 and $96 a barrel in 2022.

Goldman Sachs sees Brent Crude prices at $90 a barrel this quarter, $95 in the second quarter, and $100 a barrel in the third and fourth quarters this year.'

[mount teide] 18/1/2022 16:36

L2: closed at 1 v 3 / 92p v 94p (rest between 95p and 98p)

Actual spread today was mostly circa 92.5p v 92.9p - suggesting today's transaction volume were mostly buys.

[mount teide] 18/1/2022 09:46

L2; moved up to 1 v 3 / 92p v 94p (rest between 95p and 98p)

[croasdalelfc] 18/1/2022 07:58

Stag getting $100 a barrel at $88 Brent

[1madmarky] 18/1/2022 07:22

So a PE of less than 1 and a 1.2% divi.... what's not to like?

[mount teide] 18/1/2022 06:21

Brent hits an 8 year high of $87.80 - with the latest IMO 2020 and Tapis benchmark premiums, JSE will be realising an average sales price of around $94/bbl.

Jadestone's current production of circa 20,500 boepd (7.48m bbls/yr) and average $22.50/bbl OPEX will be generating around $71.50/bbl of operating cash flow.

[croasdalelfc] 17/1/2022 21:48

Hi King Decline rates : Stag 8/9% and decreasing Montara : 16-18% . PM? Maari very low with workovers etcDecline at Stag/Montara a function of the oil : Stag is medium/heavy and harder to move , Montara is light and new infills come on strong at ~10kbopd but pegged back to 3/4kbopdOrganic growth : Lemang 6kboepd mainly gas - 2 years to first gas Stag - near term upside with another drill and workovers maybe adding 1kbopdPM assets - likely 2023 - 4 infills for $20m maybe 2/3kbopdMaari - big opportunity- lots of low hanging fruit with low RFs and coiled tubes laterals that can be drilled - 3/5kbopd within a year of completion.

[mount teide] 17/1/2022 19:41

The Energy Sector after returning 50.76% in 2021(Financials were second with 36.57%, while the S&P 500 averaged 22.39%), has started 2022 even more strongly adding weight to the view that the 'Great Transition' out of highly priced, general market and tech growth stocks into value commodity stocks is continuing to accelerate.

2022 Sector Performance to date:

+16.38% - Energy
+4.47% - Financials
+0.02% - Industrials
-0.04% - Consumer Staples
-2.07% - Materials
-2.07% - S&P 500
-2.18% - Comms
-2.99% - Utilities
-4.03% - Consumer Discretionary
-4.72% - Info Technology
-4.92% - Healthcare
-6.82% - Property

Source: Fidelity Investments

[fardels bear] 17/1/2022 11:45

Well that little rise didn't last long, did it?

[ifthecapfits] 17/1/2022 11:12

Hope so...

[spawny100] 17/1/2022 11:08

Looking good for breaking out of the long term ascending triangle I mentioned a while back. 150p short term target when it does.

[mount teide] 17/1/2022 10:56

Now 1 v 3 / 92p v 93p

Closing in on the all time high price.

[mount teide] 17/1/2022 10:47

L2: moved to 2 v 4 / 91p v 93p (rest between 92p and 96p)

[killing_time] 17/1/2022 10:11

OK story now changing to 3 oil trucks not 3 oil tankers. The wonders of Twitter.

[mount teide] 17/1/2022 10:04

L2: Opened 2 v 3 / 90p v 91p

Moved progressively to 2 v 2 / 91p v 92p (rest between 93p and 96p)

[fardels bear] 17/1/2022 09:19

It'll be like Mafeking all over again.

[mount teide] 16/1/2022 23:35

Brent @ $86.65 - a seven year high.