Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 13/1/2021 08:42

sp100 - its all relative.....in 2020 JSE has hugely out performed the O&G market, including all the majors, recovering strongly to be much closer to its pre Covid19 high than the overwhelming majority of the oil industry;

Change since pre Covid High
-23% JSE
-33% Shell
-34% Exxon
-40% BP
-50% Enquest
-80% Premier

TXP has totally outperformed the market with daylight second as a result of its stunning success with the drill bit ..... without the Ortoire success, based on the performance of the legacy oil business, TXP's share price would probably now be close to or below the 7.25p IPO price.

I intend to hold all my existing O&G positions for at least 3 years - the analysis below supports why that may be a very sound decision.

The Oil Industry Is In Dire Need Of Investment - Oilprice.com

[pro_s2009] 13/1/2021 08:41

Post Royston its highly likely they drill another mid-miocine gas target (Steelhead) and then maybe its the Kraken........the Cretaceous potential massive oil or gas target under Royston after that......all in H2 2021.

I certainly am not selling a single TXP share, I am adding, not selling.

[spawny100] 13/1/2021 08:26

Something doesn't seem right with this one lately given the recent rises in oil.

[ngms27] 13/1/2021 08:24

Why would you quit TXP after Royston?If it's a success longer term it would add further material value.Run your winners till their pips squeak ;)

[wanobi] 13/1/2021 08:19

many thanx for the heads up on L2 MT, cheers Wan :-)

[mount teide] 13/1/2021 08:18

L2: 4 v 1 / 67p v 69p ( then 2 x 70p, 3 x 72p, 2 x 73p)

[bernieman] 12/1/2021 23:17

Thanks, I appreciate your thoughts. I recently bought £ 10k at 64p after your suggestion on the TXP board and will slowly build a bigger position as I do more research. Plus looking for a home for Txp profits post Royston!

[mount teide] 12/1/2021 22:33

US oil production to fall to 11.1 million barrels a day in 2021: EIA Report - Today

'US crude production won't bounce back in 2021 from last year's fall, the Energy Information Administration forecast in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday.

The EIA estimated that US output will fall to 11.1 million barrels a day this year. Production dropped to 11.3 million barrels a day in 2020 from a record 12.2 million barrels a day in 2019. The agency sees production rising to 11.5 million barrels a day in 2022.

Production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, is expected to average 27.2 million barrels a day in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million barrels a day in 2020, the agency forecast.

On the demand side, which was slammed last year by the COVID-19 pandemic and remains under wraps, the EIA estimated global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels averaged 92.2 million barrels a day for all of 2020, down by 9 million barrels a day from 2019.

EIA said it expects global liquid fuels consumption to grow 5.6 million barrels a day in 2021 and 3.3 million barrels a day in 2022.'

Oil futures moved higher after the report.

[mount teide] 12/1/2021 22:13

Marine Fuel Oil continues to strengthen slightly ahead of the rate of increase of the Global Benchmark crude oil pricing:

Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets.

$84 / (+9) - MGO - APAC Average
$71 / (+9) - VLSFO - APAC Average
$66 / (+9) - Jadestone / STAG - ($9.2 / 18% Premium to Brent)
$60 / (+9) - Jadestone / Montara - ($4.0 / 8% Premium to Brent)
$56 / (+7) - Brent
$55 / (+6) - HSFO - APAC Average
$53 / (+7) - WTI

$21.5/bbl - Jadestone OPEX

$5 - VLSFO/STAG Spread
$15 - VLSFO/Brent Spread
$16 - VLSFO/HSFO Spread

Jadestone should currently be generating circa $41/bbl ($14.62 million a month) of operating cash flow on average production of circa 11,500 bopd.

The $9 increase in the Brent price since 9th December should be generating circa $38m in additional cash flow on an annualised basis.

[mount teide] 12/1/2021 22:06

Bernie....the larger cap O&G companies are more likely to follow that rule than the smaller caps - the lower liquidity of the small caps can often lead to share price moves in either direction from modest buying/selling pressure, regardless as to the daily oil price movement.

[bernieman] 12/1/2021 16:33

Just curious MT.. why do you think some energy companies seem to tick up/down with oil price and others don't? I would have expected JSE to be up today with everything else. ? Not focussed on short term at all.. just curious if there's any logic.

[mount teide] 12/1/2021 13:37

Brent up to $56.42 - a nine month high.

[mount teide] 12/1/2021 13:08

L2: 2 v 1 / 68p v 70p (then 3 x 72p and 5 x 75p)

[mount teide] 11/1/2021 22:37

Top 5 Value Stocks For 2021 - Telegraph / 11th Jan 2021

Jadestone Energy

Current price 70p

Target price: 100p

Expected returns: 42pc

Jadestone is an oil and gas company, specialising in drilling in Asia and Australia.

Peel Hunt expects it to increase production by 50pc in the next two years, which based on an oil price of around $50 a barrel would double turnover by 2022.

"Jadestone Energy offers investors a remarkable blend of growth, value and income. It also benefits from assets in low-risk regions and a highly-regarded management team. It pays a 3pc dividend," said Matt Cooper, of Peel Hunt.

The shares have fallen 20pc in the past 12 months and trade on a p/e ratio of 10.5.

[loafingchard] 11/1/2021 17:54

Well done on CCL, a decent return there . I didn't take part in the end but can't complain as the majority of available funds went into O+G plays which have also done very well and will continue to add and hold along with the base miners, golds . Good luck

[mount teide] 11/1/2021 17:29

O/T - recall a few being interested in a position I'd taken in Carnival Plc the luxury cruise line operator last summer.

Carnival continues to burn through $690m a MONTH while generating virtually ZERO revenue - having over 100 very expensive cruise ships laid up for the best part of a year and counting is extracting its toll.

Pleased to have taken a profit on the holding taken out during the summer as the next 12 months is likely to continue to be very challenging for the company and the wider aviation and holiday sector.

[mount teide] 11/1/2021 13:05

Further to Clarkson's recent ahead of guidance profit forecast for 2020 driven by a very strong second half performance, we now have Maersk the world's largest freight container carrier also confirming that demand for shipping and marine fuel oil has bounced back very strongly in H2/2021 and this performance looks set to continue in 2021.

Maersk - mentioned in the summer as a new holding and since up 135% - is working at full capacity according to a press release last week, and can't yet see a peak in freight rates that have already been propelled to record highs by pandemic consumer spending.

The company said spot rates for 40ft freight containers soared over 50% during 2020, some 30% above the 8 year average.

"All our ships that can sail and all our containers that can hold cargo are in use"


‘Blue wave’ stimulus could spur import surge on top of surge - Freightwaves

'Container boom could extend even further as analysts expect massive new stimulus

Could today’s unprecedented boom in containerized imports just keep going year-round? Right through Chinese New Year in February? Through the second quarter, then the fall peak — and all the way into 2022? Could the already overwhelmed global trade network stay stuck at its ceiling until next year?

With COVID hospitalizations at record highs, almost 4,000 U.S. deaths per day and vaccine distribution slow out of the gate, a full-year boom scenario may sound implausible. But it just got more likely, courtesy of this week’s two Democratic Senate wins.

The “blue wave” political scenario is now a reality. And with it, the likelihood of much higher stimulus. That, in turn, would support much higher consumer spending — and imports — just as stimulus did in the second half of last year.

According to Jefferies Chief Economist Aneta Markowska, “What seemed like an outside probability just a few weeks ago looks increasingly likely to become reality.”...............

[mount teide] 11/1/2021 11:54

Daily charter rates for LNG carriers have surged more than 10 fold since the summer, as demand for spot cargoes in SE Asia continues to grow across the region.

Bloomberg reported that Trafigura Group is looking to charter an LNG tanker to load an early February cargo from the United States at a rate of $350,000/day. While shipping data intelligence firm Kpler said spot LNG charter rates are averaging $322,000/day in the Atlantic Basin.

In Spain, a major gas-consuming country that hosts more LNG import terminals than anywhere else in Europe, spot prices hit an all-time record of $18.71/MMBtu. The Spanish benchmark has shot through the roof as a result of below normal temperatures in China, Japan and South Korea leaving buyers in need of prompt cargoes, drawing spot cargoes away from Europe.

SE Asian buyers holding long term nat gas supply agreements (piped and LNG) in the $8-9 MMbtu range must be 'enjoying' having to pony up $33-$36 MMbtu to get their hands on spot LNG cargoes to help them keep the lights on.

Clarksons expects the market to remain very tight for at least the next three months.

At current SE Asian LNG spot rates a 250,000 cubic metre LNG carrier's cargo would have a market value of $180m - 60% of the cost of building the vessel, which will have a 25 year commercial life.

At the current LNG charter rate a vessel will earn revenue equivalent to the build cost of a new vessel every 2 years 3 months!

[fardels bear] 10/1/2021 17:37

Don't fret. I've been in and out so often that the actress and the Bishop got bored and went down the pub. I'm in for good now.

[hillfoot7] 09/1/2021 21:56

Great to see the price rising at a fair pace was in at the 50s but lost patience and bailed another lesson learned

[mount teide] 09/1/2021 21:56

OMV is NZ's largest nat gas producer - the Maari Field is OMV's only oil asset in NZ.

In common with many major independent O&G companies OMV is divesting selected oil production assets from across its portfolio.

Jadestone negotiated the Maari deal with an effective date of 1/1/2019 - Brent averaged circa $73/bbl during 2018.

[fardels bear] 09/1/2021 21:36

Oil prices were higher when the Maari deal was struck tgan they are now.

[jon123] 09/1/2021 20:53

if the deal is completed maybe the people selling may have 2nd thoughts now the oil price has recovered

[mount teide] 09/1/2021 13:10

Maari Acquisition - Purchase Price $50 million - Update to post 4934

'Since 1/1/2019 Average Maari Production has been circ 5,741 bopd, which is 4.19 million bbls. Net to Jadestone: 3,961 bopd / 2.89 million bbls

Average OPEX has been circa $25/bbl since 1/1/2019.
From the effective acquisition date of 1/1/2019 Brent has averaged $53.50/bbl
Maari crude attracts a circa $2/bbl IMO 2020 Low Sulphur Premium to Brent

Average Cash Flow/bbl since 1/1/2019 would be $55.50 - $25.00 = $30.50/bbl

Operating Cash flow net to Jadestone(69%) over the period would be 2.89m bbls x $30.50 = $88.15 million'

Current cash flow net to Jadestone @ $56 Brent on circa 4,500 bopd gross, would be circa $3.2 million/month

Suggests, if as the management now expects, the Maari acquisition completes during Q2/2021 - should the current Brent price be maintained, the total Operating Cash flow net to Jadestone over the period from the effective start date could well reach $100 million for an asset with a $50 million purchase price.

In addition, looking forward, the Maari Field before any well production enhancements and infill wells Jadestone has planned, is likely to be handed an asset generating annual operating cash flow net to Jadestone at $56 Brent, equivalent to more than three times the $50 million acquisition price.

With an oil price recovery under way and an acquisition completion date some 9 months or more beyond the original end date given of H1/2020 - this deal just gets better and better with every passing day.

AIMHO/DYOR

Data Source: Maari Field Shareholder - Horizon Energy

[mount teide] 09/1/2021 12:00

Offshore Online - Drilling & Completion - Dec 30th 2020

'Offshore Australia: Chevron has exercised a one-well priced option for the VALARIS JU-107, with an estimated duration of 30 days from late February 2020 to late March 2020. Jadestone Energy has awarded the jackup a two-well contract, with an estimated duration of 115 days from June 2020 to September 2020.'