the 499k's could have been a roll over, although both trades went through at 24.75 the bid price at the time of the two trades was different. 24.75 and 25? straw to clutch at? |
If Akatara's scratchy H2 revenue has started to make a dent in the net debt figure, the market might wake up, but I think they'll want to see a full 6 months production from Akatara with no major hiccups before any rerate, unless the oil price takes off. |
JSE complete and utter dog this year. Obviously still a huge overhang. Rest of the sector up 30% or so on higher oil and weaker cable. JSE obviously very skewed to higher oil price given high production costs but no ones interested. Could really do with the major holder buying out minorities. Their 50p warrants will be worthless soon. |
Well someone's sold 2 lots of 499k shares at 24.75 today. So not going up anytime soon until selling clears up |
If we get a miracle here you'll get my vote for Pope. |
Yeah, major holders [and me] are heavily underwater here. That actually provides me with some level of security TBH. They haven't sold any either...
Hoping for an earnings miracle. |
The rising oil price environment is one attraction of JSE. Another imho is that Akatara is predominantly a fixed revenue stream asset (with fixed gas prices), which reduces JSE’s earnings volatility. |
I’ve added 70k today (first two of the day). I’m not sure a bid would be accepted should it transpire, but I agree with MT’s assessment that JSE is far too cheap at this level. |
f22 - as a shareholder in both, not suggesting I would welcome it - flagged it up as a potential risk as the timing for Valeura(and others) could not be better at this stage of Jadestone's recovery in a rising oil price environment. |
Timing would be brilliant for Valeura, not so for JSE shareholders, with a bid now most on here would be well out of pocket even with an unlikely 50% premium. |
 Jadestone Energy could well be a M&A target of a regional small cap peer currently looking to make a substantial asset purchase in the region after acquiring its first SE Asian asset a little over two years ago when the company had just $15m of cash, no assets and no debt......yet, the performance since has been so spectacular, it currently has NET CASH nearly $100m greater than Jadestone's current market cap!
Valeura Energy - first mentioned here after building a shareholding in Dec 2022, the regional second phase small cap peer gave Jadestone a 4 year head start before making its first and only investment to date in the region.....a mature oil asset in the Gulf of Thailand producing 20,000 bopd for a net $10m after adjustment from the effective economic date. The mind boggles at what the management selling the asset were thinking with respect to the sales price, as the progress Valeura has since made developing its business from this asset over the past 2 year 2 months has been off the charts:
Production: From 0 to 26,109 boepd
Market Cap: From $48m to $806m
Annual Revenue: From $0 to $679m
Net Cash: From $15m to $259m (no debt)
Share Price - From $0.48 to $7.95 (15 bagger)
APAC Awards
2024 - Company of the Year
2024 - CEO of the Year
Valeura currently has $259m of cash - $96m more than Jadestone's current market cap.
Timing for an offer could not be better. |
I see that PT Tracon Industri have been providing the operation, maintenance manpower and services to akatara last year |
Encouraging to see the commodity analysts at Standard Chartered split from the Wall Street pack, and go beyond the view expressed here in Q4/2024, that the dramatic slowdown in U.S. oil production growth witnessed in 2024 will continue, by forecasting declines in both 2025 and 2026.
Standard Chartered: U.S. Oil Production Growth To Decline In 2025 - Oilprice.com - 8th Jan 2025
'According to StanChart, last year witnessed a sharp slowdown in non-OPEC+ supply growth from 2.46 mb/d in 2023 to 0.79 mb/d in 2024, primarily caused by a reduction in U.S. total liquids growth from 1.605 mb/d in 2023 to 734 kb/d in 2024.
StanChart expects this trend to continue, with U.S. liquids growth expected to clock in at just 367 kb/d in 2025 before slowing down further to 151 kb/d in 2026. With US production expected to fall over the next two years
Stanchart says the U.S. slowdown and a long tail of declines will keep non-OPEC supply growth well below 1 mb/d over the next couple of years despite some areas of solid growth in Brazil, Canada and Guyana. In other words, there’s no inevitable supply glut coming as many traders feared in 2024.
Meanwhile, StanChart has reported that the oil market sentiment appears to have improved significantly over the past month, particularly among hedge funds. StanChart's proprietary crude oil money-manager positioning index has risen for three successive weeks; in the latest data it rose 15.0 w/w to a 24-week high of -2.1. StanChart's positioning index for the ICE Brent contract is now positive after climbing 17.8 w/w to a 30-week high of +6.0. The improvement in sentiment has accompanied a gradual trend in higher oil prices.
According to StanChart, front-month Brent has managed a run of nine consecutive intraday highs, noting that the longest such run since the start of the contract was 12 achieved in 1988.
After weakening in Q3 2024, global oil demand appears to have strengthened in the fourth quarter. StanChart has calculated that global demand averaged 103.291 mb/d in October, a y/y increase of 1.366 mb/d accelerating from September’s tepid 366 kb/d growth. Growth was boosted by strong U.S. demand, which increased 379 kb/d y/y to 21.01 mb/d. This marks the strongest U.S. demand since August 2019 and the third-highest monthly average on record.' |
CM agreed that should be around the top case - however, given storm season, maintenance shut downs etc I have discounted the 2024 exit rate for my 2025 guidance.
A very positive Skua Well and operational excellence would be welcome in 2025 :) |
Not necessarily though as different hands are now guiding the helm.Yazzer still not got enough, I see. |
Ashkv: the average production should be much the same as the exit from 2024. There is only one ne well planned from what has been said. They may do some workovers in Malaysia but that has not been announced.
I am not sure what rates we can expect for Skua-11 but it looks like 2025 should be a quet year in preparation for activity in 2026. |
YasX agreed - Dec 2024 average production will be indicative of a recovery given Akatara gas fully online from 8 Dec 24!!!
Curious as to views of fellow contributors on full year 2025 guidance?
I have a conservative 2025 mid-guidance for JSE at 21,000 to 23,000 boe/d
Full Year 2025 guidance should be next week if a repeat of 2024 when JSE issued yearly guidance on 15 Jan 2024 |
Most energy related shares have rallied sharply the past few weeks, especially those that have been hit hard for much of 2024. JSE seems to be the exception - the market wants to see evidence of delivery not just optimism in statements. |
Summary of M&A in SE Asia in Q4 : hTTps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ma-southeast-asia-2024-q4-robert-chambers-yknre?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via |
Acceptance date 24 December, 2024
Environmental plan issued to NOPSEMA 23rd Dec 24
Excerpts
2.3 Timing and Duration
The Skua-11 ST1 well activities are scheduled to commence between Q1 and Q3 of 2025 subject to MODU availability, Regulator acceptance and long lead equipment arrival. Operations are likely to last for a period of approximately 66 days in total, however timings are subject to weather and operational efficiency. Therefore, this EP validity period is from January to December 2025. Once accepted, Jadestone Energy will be permitted to undertake the activities at any time during this period.
and
2.6 Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit
The mobile offshore drilling unit (MODU) used to support the Skua-11 ST1 drilling activities will be a ‘jack up’ drilling MODU towed to the Skua-11 well site by support vessels.
Pages 28 to 30, show the drilling plan and a well schematic |
Kaos3 - don't really understand this comment. They are damned if they do, damned if they don't. Quite refreshing from my POV as a LTH [who is well underwater]. |
I'll ask you again, then. If you don't like it, are very afraid of it WHY ARE YOU STILL HERE? |
I'm interested which will do better this year TXP or JSE, both on the "floor" last year.
YasX apologies forgot to reply earlier, PHAR, still don't know and upset about the past with the 3 clowns in charge.
Was "disappointed" re recent change of CEO but the reality is, they were unlikely to pull a big name but also a missed opportunity and a shame they couldn't find someone a bit more "exciting"? Saying that, I have a feeling that PHAR could out perform this year and in all honesty, whilst hardly covering themselves in glory, they didn't do too badly compared to peer group. last? IMHO. |
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