Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 21/7/2016 13:43

seems that we have recently passed the latest high tide over there...

13:43 local time, they are an hour ahead of the UK...
wind speed and wave height forcast to reduce start of next week, not that it seems too bad right now and I've no idea what the tolerances are for towing the FPF1 out of port

[jonc] 21/7/2016 13:41

That should do it.Crisis over lol.

[jonc] 21/7/2016 13:35

The share price has turned round since you made that comment!

[bountyhunter] 21/7/2016 12:14

it's facing the other way now, presumably not a failure of the inclination test ;~}

[bountyhunter] 21/7/2016 08:33

not gone far yet but presumably the Taurus, Virtus, Vega and Tytan are hooking up - I guess we will get an RNS when it's out of the dock area (unless there's a stop for any further testing)

[gersemi] 21/7/2016 07:30

FPF1 IS ON THE MOVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CONGRATS TO ALL INVOLVED.

[lfdkmp] 21/7/2016 07:27

Well FPF has left its berth and is positively crowded by Taurus, Virtus, Vega and Tytan. - could we be on our way?

Meanwhile Olympic Octopus continues its manoeuvres off the coast of Aberdeen

[bountyhunter] 20/7/2016 13:17

We all know that the price of oil is fundamental for an oil stock, meanwhile if the FPF1 does sail away by the end of July that will be good news for us all ...except for shorters

[ngms27] 20/7/2016 08:28

This is purely a geared play on POO. The market is fully aware of the FPF and first production from Stella so personally I don't expect this to break and stay above 70 unless POO settles in the late 50's / 60's.

If oil doesn't get to something like $70 in the next 12 to 18 months then the debt pile will start to become a problem. That's the gamble. But you cannot handle the truth...

[bountyhunter] 20/7/2016 07:42

well spotted again! that's another link in the header

it certainly looks to me as though we can expect the FPF1 to be on it's way before the end of July (imo)

[whiskeyinthejar] 19/7/2016 23:22

Vessel activity report (linky is kindly provided in header at top of thread) says Ithaca have chartered another AHTS. The Balder Viking from 1st August.

So they have Olympic Octopus and Baldy Viking.

RNS said we'll get updates (plural) on FPF1:

"Further updates will be provided once the FPF-1 has left the yard and when it commences the tow to the field."

So Im guessing its therefore a two stage process. Tow FPF1 out the yard. Then tow it to the field. The local tugs do the local towing. Then the Octopus and Baldy vessels tow FPF1 to the field. Make sense?

Edit: from stock house, they have two more AHTS booked - Tor Viking II and Boa Jarl.

Olympic Octopus, Balder Viking and Tor Viking are booked by Ithaca from 27th July according to this site



Not long now.

[bountyhunter] 19/7/2016 20:17

cheers cfc, added to the end of the header

[cfccfc1970] 19/7/2016 18:16

Rating Action: Moody's affirms Ithaca's B3 rating and changes the outlook to stable from negative
Global Credit Research - 18 Jul 2016

hxxps://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Ithacas-B3-rating-and-changes-the-outlook-to--PR_351753?WT.mc_id=AM~WWFob29fRmluYW5jZV9TQl9SYXRpbmcgTmV3c19BbGxfRW5n~20160718_PR_351753



London, 18 July 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today affirmed Ithaca Energy Inc. (Ithaca)'s B3 Corporate Family Rating (CFR), B3-PD probability of default rating (PDR) and Caa2 senior
unsecured notes rating. The notes are guaranteed on a senior subordinated basis by certain Ithaca subsidiaries. The outlook on all ratings is changed to stable from negative.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The change of outlook to stable takes into account reduced capital and execution risk as Ithaca has completed virtually all of the development spending on its key Greater Stella Area (GSA) project, with the FPF-1 floating production facility expected to sail from the yard to the field in late July 2016, after completion of the final marine system trials. The production is expected to come onstream approximately three months after sail away of FPF-1. Timely completion of the GSA project with ramp up to its full production capacity of 16,000 BOE/day net to Ithaca, which will enable the company to more than double its current average daily production, will be key to the company's production and cash flow growth in 2017.

Moody's expects 2016 production to be in line with last year between 12,000 -13,000 BOE/day considering the guidance from the company at 9,000 BOE/day from existing assets and 2-3 months of Stella production. Moody's expects leverage ratio (adjusted debt/EBITDA) to peak in 2016 at around 4.6x from 3.0x in 2015 -- this will then fall back to below 2.5x in 2017. The company's capex spending is expected to reduce materially to around $50 million in 2016-2017, from $400 million in 2014 and $165 million in 2015, after the ramp-up of the GSA project to its full capacity. This coupled with improved oil prices and existing hedging on a sizeable share of its production through mid-2017 at $60-62/BOE will result in increased free cash flow (FCF) generation. Moody's expects the company to generate FCF of around $50 million in 2016 and $150 million in 2017.

Ithaca's availability under its RBL facility tightened following its borrowing base redetermination in April 2016 to $430 million from $515 million, but remains adequate with $78 million undrawn as of 31st March 2016. This coupled with cash balance of $22 million at the end of March 2016 and Moody's expectation that the company will generate positive FCF in 2016-2017 demonstrates a good liquidity profile.

Moody's believes that Ithaca's business profile remains constrained due to its small scale and highly concentrated reserves base with 57 million BOE of 2P reserves at the end of 2015 versus 9.1 million BOE of expected annual production after the ramp up of GSA. Future production growth is highly dependent on the successful completion of the GSA development which will enable Ithaca to more than double its production capacity to 25,000 BOE/day. However, Stella, like many other North Sea fields, will have a fairly high decline rate and Ithaca will need to develop other nearby fields in 2018 and beyond to maintain and grow production, for example, development of the follow-up Harrier field which is part of the joint Stella/Harrier Field Development Plan.

Rating Outlook

The stable outlook factors lower execution risk on the GSA project and is expected to be completed in line with prevailing guidance with ramp up to full production capacity by the end of 2016, while maintaining a good liquidity profile.

What Could Change the Rating - Down

Further significant delays in Stella field start-up, a tightening of the $430 million borrowing base on re-determination in October 2016 or thereafter or declining free cash flow generation, r

[freddie ferret] 19/7/2016 16:43

As far as I can see this is purely a geared oil price play.

[whiskeyinthejar] 19/7/2016 16:30

Obviously Fib numbers don't provide much support when there's a change in the underlying fundamentals. But nothing much has changed since last RNS.

[whiskeyinthejar] 19/7/2016 16:10

Lots of traders use Fibonacci retracement. So they see those levels as potential re-entry points. Lots of empirical evidence that they work.

[joestalin] 19/7/2016 15:59

I wonder if these fib charts are not merely a finger crossing exercise. Is there any logical reason why they should be predictive?