Ironveld Share Discussion Threads

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 18:34

For what it is worth I think GC already has the turkey RJ plucked and stuffed and we are just waiting to see if he slowly roasts him in his own juices or incinerates him and throws him in the bin. I doubt RJ has any idea what GC really means by "will not be tolerated".

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 18:23

LADESIDE,

Why was the figure to get to cash generative production £8M back in Oct 21?

Planned refurbishment expenditure (including contingency) of ZAR 40 million (approximately £2.0 million). Why was it £2M - £3.2M when it was first announced? What has happened since to suddenly make it £2M including contingency? Does ME or does ME not have a track record of misleading the market?

How do you think the resource in the ground gets into the smelter in the first place? Break it down step by step starting with paying off the landowners (not a bribe but a requirement which still has not been negotiated) and go from there. Each step has a different mix of CAPEX and OPEX associated with it, which will need to be paid well before any revenue from any sales arrives. Think also about those sales - only the V has an offtake at the moment. Do a bit of research on what 99.5% HPI might be worth (the top notch stuff is 99.99% and the price drops a lot when only 99.8%) and who might want to buy it when there are already established players in the market producing better stuff.

Also think about what RJ and his supporters are going to do when they lose all their resolutions (placing and sack the BoD). Noting that the placing will dilute RJ well below 5%. If you think RJ winning any of the resolutions would make the situation any better, think again.

Edit. Don't forget all those lovely PLC costs. It was so good of the BoD to make those loans and accrue salary for all those months only to convert most of it at the placing price. They will want to be paid in real money now the company has some. The suppliers (advisor fees) who took discounted shares will probably want real money too but would probably be happy with shares discounted from the new prevailing share price as they can just sell them straight into the market without having to rell anyone they are doing it.

[ladeside] 16/7/2022 17:18

Why does everyone keep stating that we're "short" in money when we're not ?

The discounted placing IS enough to purchase the smelter, refurbish the smelter and get us into production.

The actual Smelter purchase is being repaid over 10 years from production profits and it's only the refurbishment and initial £750k on completion required,

ZAR 15 million (approximately £0.75 million) payable upon completion; and

ZAR 100 million (approximately £5.0 million) over 10 years calculated as a percentage of profits from the smelter, capped at 13.5 per cent per annum;

· Proceeds will be used to fully fund the Acquisition and planned refurbishment of its smelter facility located in Rustenburg, South Africa, being:

o Initial purchase consideration of ZAR 15 million (approximately £750,000);

o Planned refurbishment expenditure (including contingency) of ZAR 40 million (approximately £2.0 million);

Taking into account available cash resources, the expected net proceeds from the Placing (excluding for these purposes any funds which may be raised by the Broker Option) and cash flows from the smelter when operational, the Company expects to have sufficient cash resources to fund operations on an ongoing basis.

[tima441] 16/7/2022 16:43

Tbh I'm not sure I know ALL the hurdles even now!!!!

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 16:35

Great thanks. I think that there is already another safe 8% voting for the placing. If you wanted to vote against you would have to really go some to do it.

When you took part in the Broker Option did you realise what all the hurdles to actually getting to cash generative production would be?

[tima441] 16/7/2022 16:30

There was an "assumption" with the order. Technically/legally I'm sure I could change my vote... but otherwise they will be voted with board

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 16:13

tima,

I don't believe any votes can be taken as read, they all would need to be voted either in person or as proxy, unless there was something in the placing agreement that automatically assigned them to the chairman to vote at his discretion -could you have a look at your paper work. It would not surprise me if it is there. GC is a wiley old fox when it comes to issuing more shares to avoid putting his hand in his own pocket. The company line painting RJ as equally wiley at stealing companies does not wash with me. He is IMHO the biggest Christmas turkey of them all and the fox will get him one way or another.

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 16:04

"Effectively it is down to vote on 1 Aug and the starting odds at the moment, which I as the bookie can change beause the bookie never loses."

The bookie missed the fact that the first placing shares (8%) are in play also diluting RJ and supporters a little and issues new odds:

Grosvenor comes up with £8m - negligible.

Discounted placing raises enough to pay off loans keep lights on and complete the smelter part of getting into production, but not all the other things that would be needed - 75%

No money is raised - 25%

[tima441] 16/7/2022 16:02

Yes, my understanding is first shares are being issued pro rata across the placing and the Broker Option?

And the votes are taken as read

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 15:36

tima,

Thanks. "First Placing Shares to be admitted to trading on AIM and it is expected that their admission to AIM will take place on or around 18 July 2022 ("First Admission")" so that is indeed 120m (8%) that has a massive vested interest in seeing the second issue go through, assuming the owners don't see them as a way of getting out of their much larger commitment in the second phase by voting it down - vote and sell around proxy by date before 1 Aug.

Are the first shares being issued pro rata across the placing and the Broker Option?

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 15:27

Two things I used to think were mostly true but now know from experience are mostly false:

A discounted placing is annoying but the discounted price puts a floor under the price and therefore any further drops will bounce of it - The number of times I have seen SPs dive straight through the "floor" and never return above it proves that it is mostly false.

Warrants and Options at a premium to current / placing price are a realistic target which should be reached before they expire - I already have one such expired warrant certificate framed on my toilet wall which never got close to exercise price during its exercise period and just got a new one to potentially go alongside it in 2024.

The Broker Warrants may never be exercised. If they are all exercised an extra £1m goes to the company.

[tima441] 16/7/2022 15:19

The "first placing" shs will be voted at the 1st Aug meeting. I think they'll ensure that's 100% of that portion that vote with BoD

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 15:00

On which resolutions?

1 Aug Placing - I am voting for the placing as there is no alternative that does not make a bad situation even worse. It would be better for you to vote with your feet and sell rather than to vote against.

12 Aug

Sack ME - Definately for sacking him, he misled the market how can anyone trust a word he says?

Sack GC - If he turns up in person and gives a better account of himself other than look at my past glories (Tiger Woods used to win loads of tournaments and has missed the cut in the British Open this year) I might change my mind, but at the moment he can go too.

Worth noting what I said about the placing and Broker Option shares not being able to vote for the placing. The reverse will be true by 12 Aug and I would expect, if they are voted, they will be voted in favour of the BoD. Say what you like about the BoD, when it comes to protecting themselves they are no fools.

[aceuk] 16/7/2022 14:21

I think my sentence progression let me down there - yes, agree further value destruction by Clarke the most likely outcome but as I said am 80% likely to vote with Align at this point.

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 13:58

ace,

I would defer to whatever al's view is on the shaft RJ question - he seems to know GC best.

As there is no chance of Align proposal ahead of 19th Aug and negligible chance of Grosvenor before 19th Aug I think you have it the wrong way round on that bit. Clarke destroying value again is virtually certain as unless he is going to fund the shortfall between what is raised and what is needed to get into production himself (negligible chance but I can't say whehter it is more or less negligible than Grosvenor), there is more dilutive funding to come.

[aceuk] 16/7/2022 13:49

Thanks Rec - is not desire to shaft Jennings a bit personal?

At the moment I regard the chance of the Align proposal coming up with money on reasonable terms as rather higher than Clarke getting money via Grosvenor (which Eales suggested is still possible) or Clarke not destroying value again.

Edit: had to return to edit this post as spellchecker had done its dirty deeds!

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 13:42

Now had a good read through RJ's latest toys out of the cot piece. Quite a few typos in there but let's not be distracted by them. It is hard to disagree with a lot of what he says. However he makes a big deal of comparing his proposal, which was far from robust despite all his bluster, and 0.3p now being done. There is nothing that compares his unrobust, full of bluster proposal to what could have been had he not thrown his toys out of the cot.

The book build for the placing and the Broker Option is complete. I assume, and tima can confirm / deny, placing letters have gone out been "signed" and sent back (it is not done by post these days). There have been placings where money committed in this way has not later arrived, but for now the money is almost as good as being in the bank, provided the resolution passes on 1 Aug.

Does anyone believe the same would be true had the BoD accepted the RJ proposal:

a. before RJ first threw his toys out of the cot (demanded a GM to remove directors and blowing the gaff on the "discounted" against 0.7p share price placing).

b. after RJ threw his toys out of the cot and share price had crashed to hovering a bit above 0.3p (paying 1p when trading at 0.7 Vs paying 1p when trading at 0.35p).

The Broker Warrants are badged as a fee for doing the Broker Option, however I believe they are a pay off for doing the cashbox placing to mitigate the risk of RJ being able to block it by voting against the disaplication special resolution. Ie had RJ worked with the BoD to book build at say 0.6p and agreed to support the special resolution required for an ordinary placing, would there be nearly so many Broker Warrants? Even if the number was the same they would be at 0.6p (raising an extra £2m over the 3 years) not 0.3p.

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 12:40

I have been in IRON from day 1 as I held MRG so I could have voted, as my online broker (was TD Waterhouse taken over by ii a while ago) has always enabled it, at every GM ever held.

I therefore started at 6p - the RTO price but in reality I had paid over 30p for MRG. It was fairly obvious that by Jubilee Plat giving the IRON shares as a dividend to their shareholders, many would sell and crash the price. I waited until it had bottomed out around 2p then bought in, top slicing around the time LADESIDE bought in in 2013. I did not go for a completely free ride but my remaining holding of over 1.2m did not owe me much - a mistake I have corrected in top slices since as I now always at least get all my money back. I also bought some in another account, which I no longer use and can't even remember the price I paid or how many there are (not many because the share price had come off its highs and I thought we would be in production end of 2015 / early 2016). Those are the ones I still hold and will use to attend the GM on 12th. When I ask for the letter of representation I will find out exactly how few I have all I know is they are not really worth selling.

Not sure how rattled GC is (is he more interested in shafting RJ than he is in his own position?), but in total agreement with not got a proper plan.

One route from 1 Aug to 12 Aug might be to do the smelter deal and then present a proper credible plan that does address all the obvious holes in what has been presented so far. However, if they can't / don't do that, then the old adage of don't say anything and be considered a fool or open your mouth and confirm it comes to mind.

[aceuk] 16/7/2022 12:27

Rec, how many times could you have voted?

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 12:15

tima,

As Align never had a FIRM proposal in the first place, don't hold your breath on getting one now.

If the BoD lose on 1 Aug there is time, just about, for them to put exactly the same proposal to another GM ahead of 19th Aug. There would not be time to get a different proposal through a GM before 19th Aug. Thus any alternative poroposal would need to factor in the uncertainies around what might happen after 19th Aug - someone else could step straight in and ante up the £750k (a dismissed memebr of the IRON BoD perhaps, who knows exactly who to pick up the phone to on 20th Aug).

The big issue with GM votes, noting the shares you have acquired in the Broker Option won't exist and therefore can't be voted, is the number of shares that just don't get voted.

I think RJ can get about 20% of the valid issued shares on his side. If only 40% of the shares get voted, he has 50% of the vote.

Most shareholders never bother to vote and don't even know how - I have never bothered to vote my IRON shares, even when I had over 1.2m of them.

[tima441] 16/7/2022 11:47

At this moment I think it's 90% certain BoD placing proposals succeeds... and Board remains.

Would need to see some FIRM proposals from Align to shift views.

[tima441] 16/7/2022 11:45

I've asked about 10 questions through my tweets.

As things stand Align have some valid historical complaints over Grosvenor and other matters. That's useful context. But does not move us forward.

Now it's about the BoD proposals vs what? I have no idea what Align is NOW proposing.
People? Financing? Strategy?

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 11:40

So a few of the horses have droped out and one has been replaced so, because LADESIDE loves me doing this so much, it is time to update the bookies' odds.

As a reminder my guess at the odds prior to Aug 19th was:

Grosvenor comes up with £8m - negligible. (still negligble but in PVS and being kept on life support so not completely impossible)
Placing at a premium raises full £8m - 1% (dead)
Discounted (against price at time of placing) Placing raises full £8m - 20% (dead)
Discounted Placing raises enough to pay off loans and keep lights on - 30% (been replaced by Discounted placing raises enough to pay off loans keep lights on and complete the smelter part of getting into production, but not all the other things that would be needed)
No money is raised - 49%

So new odds are

Grosvenor comes up with £8m - negligible.

Discounted placing raises enough to pay off loans keep lights on and complete the smelter part of getting into production, but not all the other things that would be needed - 50%

No money is raised - 50%

Effectively it is down to vote on 1 Aug and the starting odds at the moment, which I as the bookie can change beause the bookie never loses, are evens on both credible remaining horses.

Yes I am genuinely really enjoying the roller coaster ride.

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 11:15

tima441 the answer to your question, ahead of the exclusivity period expiring on 19 Aug, is NO.