Ironveld Share Discussion Threads

[tomboyb] 14/7/2022 15:48

"but if GC won I'd pretend to be a long termer investor" -

lol -

[tomboyb] 14/7/2022 12:33

Looking forward to the vote -

[oilbuy] 14/7/2022 11:39

Looking very much undervalued here with 4m in the kitty.Vote yes or stay stagnant

[al101uk] 14/7/2022 10:48

It seems to me that if you believe in the assets then the boards proposal is the best option. Having debt @12% that needs to be fully repaid at maturity is just a complete non-starter.

If you want to cut your losses, then maybe Aligns proposal is your better bet. In the short term there may be an opportunity to get out at a price somewhere around 1p, certainly a higher price than the 0.3p Ironveld are going to be glued to for some time to come under GC's proposal.

I tend to argue from the point of view of wanting the business to succeed but even if you vote with GC there are still a lot of questions, the primary one being that post-placing, do you still want to see GC and ME at Ironveld? I'd argue that it would be better if they were removed, but Align don't seem to have any succession plan in place and the mess they have claimed as victory at KZG gives pause for thought.

After all of that RS is right, there are lots of questions to answer reagarding profitability, there is substantial debt to pay down on the smelter and fixed costs will take a much larger percentage of revenues than they would in the promised larger operation. Any Amerisur holder will have seen the Net Back numbers the company was using when promoting the virtues of Plat, only a very small percentage of that ever hit the balance sheet and there were hidden costs up on hidden costs.

I was under the impression that they had offtake agreements in place for all of their products, but that was RNS'ed some time ago, so I could be wrong. I think the partner for the Vanadium offtake was announced purely as a big name to promote a management success.

With all of the unknowns I think there really is only one question for people currently deciding which way to vote:

Do you want to vote for whats best for the business or for a potential exit opportunity?

Nobody knows enough to make their decision any more complicated than that.

[tima441] 14/7/2022 09:51

Presumably if Align succeed in voting down the Placing we are left with no Plan B?

Exclusivity period will have passed on smelter... deal may... or may not.... be available in future.

No funds - Director loan repayments will gobble up the small 1st placing cash?

Who are the proposed alternate Directors?

What is the new plan to raise equity ... & debt.... to get to production?

As things stand I will be voting for the "bird in the hand" of BoD plans inc placing.

Thus should not be taken as carte blanche. BoD should know they MUST deliver this time. No more excuses, big salaries.
Very unimpressed with BoD loan conversions at placing price, broker warrants.
In both cases could have sent a much better signal
E.g.
loan conversions @ say 0.6p (or more!)
Warrant number was excessive, exercise price too low, term too long

[rec0very stock] 14/7/2022 07:34

The main product is HPI - 20kt pa (at full production). I did a very quick bit of research into it and found a range of HPI that someone could buy for a range of prices linked to how much they bought - I have no idea what IRON would get for what comes out of the smelter but there are clearly further steps someone else would need to take to turn it into something the end user would pay for. It won't leap out of the smelter by itself and into a 3D printer.

The global market does seem to be growing, but from a very low level and there are already significant players in the game producing and there does not seem to be a fully organised market for it. The only offtake at the moment is for the V so does the BoD really know what price it might get?

The V and Ti byproducts are in slag and it is not clear whether the weights given are for contained metal or the gross weight of the slag. Unsurprisingly the figures given for what the 7.5MW smelter should produce are a bit less than half of what the 15MW was supposed to produce. Some OPEX is proportional to the output weights ie will also be half, some is not, ie half as much costs 3/4 and there are fixed costs and admin costs (eg adviser fees and BoD salaries). EBITDA at project level will be way less than half the 2014 DFS figure of GBP 8.1 million per annum. And at PLC level post tax cash flow could be negligible.

In short without a revised and published in full DFS, there is absolutely no evidence except trust in people, who have taken nice fat fees and have misled the market, that they know what they are doing and the juice will be worth the squeeze in the end. The fact that RJ thought it was all great and piled in gives me less confidence not more. Yes there is a large resource - over 100 years, but so what?

[purchaseatthetop] 14/7/2022 07:05

malcolmmm....agreed. Big Red Flag is the quoting on Enernet for the hybrid regeneration facility. Enernet Global have never done a project in Africa. How on earth are they ever going to get one done in the home of corruption? That part of the RNS is ticking woke boxes. Trying to make iron off the electricity grid....good luck with that.

The costings do not include the hundreds of thousand required to keep the BoD and the lackeys living for the entire period of the development (which will be higher than you think).

As recovery says...where are the costings for the small matter of getting everything dug up, milled, washed etc and then disposed of?

Three times a much money is needed and the missing money means it either will never happen or is a shareholder value trap.

[malcolmmm] 14/7/2022 00:55

IMO it Looks to me IRON is using shareholders money to generate their salary's and that they have no intention of extracting minerals, if there are any? They are leading shareholders by the nose with a carrot of huge profits at some point in the future . It is obvious imo that there will never be profits after five years of empty promises.
If the minerals in the ground are so valuable they would have obtained a loan years ago. So imo opinion something is gravely wrong here . An up to date independent geological assessment of the ores to confirm that they actually exist should be undertaken immediately imo.

[aceuk] 13/7/2022 23:55

All I can say to that Tim is we have had years of management failure in era of very cheap finance - there is nothing in their offer which in my view even closely resembles Jam tomorrow.

At the moment I remain inclined to back Align in holding management to account.

[tima441] 13/7/2022 22:38

We are where we are now. Definitely a mess that should've been handled better by all parties.

- BoD ref Grosvenor & no deadline
- Align timing & incomplete offer
- Align requisition that halted placing at higher level
- BoD agreeing so many broker warrants
- BoD greed with price for converting Director Loans
- Etc etc

BUT vital thing is we are moving to realistic prospect of production on huge resource. Once mkt believes that I suspect we will move towards a mkt cap of £100m.

I support the placing - taking all above into account.

I doubt Align can assemble a 50% vote against.

We don't know if Align has any realistic alternative proposal that has certainty of execution.

I absolutely do not want to see placing voted down in favour of some wing & prayer alternative that might or might not fly.

I will not jump from frying pan to fire!

[unnd] 13/7/2022 22:16

To me Aligns proposal is far better as it anchors the share price around 1p with a much less number of share e.g. if £5m is raised through equity, debt and monetising warranties then the maximum number of additional shares will be circa 0.5b to give a total number of shares in circulation of around 1.8b.
Under the BOD's proposal the share price is anchored around 0.3p with over 1.7b of additional shares being issued to give a total of over 3b shares in issue and the share price held at 0.3p due to the 0.5b broker shares being drip fed into the market over a long period.
The possible risk with Align is if the Company is not able to repay the debt in Aug 2024 some 2 years from now. If the BOD cannot get into production before then then we have no hope in any case. If they do get into production as promised then the debt will in all probability be turned into shares at 1p (which is included in the 0.5b shares noted above).
In addition to this it would still leave the door open to Grosvenor under the 'imminent' agreement to close the deal as the share price would be around the 1p level ( i doubt that they would complete with the share price at 0.3p?).
To me it is a no brainer with the advantage of ridding the company of GC and maybe ME who both started this whole fiasco by stating that the the Grosvenor deal was imminent some 9 months ago (where was the due diligence to ensure the funds where available).
Vote Align.

[malcolmmm] 13/7/2022 17:04

I can see Grosvenor or whoever buying the whole company for peanuts and going private. Is Governors imminent funding still on the table, not a word about it for months.

[malcolmmm] 13/7/2022 16:55

I am thinking that this will drop to 0.30 and imo they will never make a profit and never extract anything .

[rec0very stock] 13/7/2022 16:10

You gave your views without abusing another poster that is what we want on here.

The warrants are a big issue and I always hate them even when I get them myself, but that is probably because I have never been able to exercise them before they expire (always been at a premium to placing price and always been underwater the whole time).

I would expect Turner Pope to exercise theirs in dribs and drabs over the next 3 years and sell into the market pretty much straight away. But they will always be a drag on the share price until they are gone.

I believe they are the price GC is willing for all shareholders to pay to defend against RJ being able to block the placing.

[rec0very stock] 13/7/2022 15:53

To kick off:

Anyone who follows that pompous fool RJ needs their head examined. Yes it has always been clear GC does not care about ordinary shareholders - you should have known that when you bought if you DYOR, but he does know how to deliver at the end of the day, which is something RJ clearly does not.

[tomboyb] 13/7/2022 15:53

On that note, I would apologise to this thread for my earlier posts -

The RNS I found today was astounding, and very poor from the management. To cap it and give almost half a billion warrants to the broker was the icing -

Good luck -

[rec0very stock] 13/7/2022 15:41

Hmm,

Could this be another post 6445 situation? Is it worth the risk? Am I still that much of a spiv?

[tomboyb] 13/7/2022 15:33

There could be some fireworks ahead with IRON -

Too late for the 100mill odd shares but still have the rest to the vote -

[rec0very stock] 13/7/2022 15:32

I note they normally have their meetings in Manchester - I would go along in person if I lived there but very happily I don't. If someone wants to go along and can't get their own letter of representation, PM me and I will appoint you my proxy to go along in person.

[rec0very stock] 13/7/2022 15:27

I will be voting my tiny number of shares for the placing. I will probably vote to sack GC and ME just for the hell of it too.