Ironveld Share Discussion Threads

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 11:13

If Grosvenor had had the money to do what it had said it would do, ie provide £8m, then we would not be here now. Promises of money are worth nothing until the money is in the bank.

Arguing about who can make the best promises of money are great fun to watch, but none of it puts money in the bank.

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 11:06

Ace,

I am really looking forward to attending GM on 12th. Will GC turn up or will he just leave it to ME to take the flak?

The key point RJ fails to address is by blocking the placing on 1st what will be the alternative ahead of 19th Aug?

I love this bit:

The true facts are that the FCA regulated broker who was to co-invest in this portion with me represented to me a minimum of £250k but that there was a high expectation of being able to raise more.

Expect, have confidence that, shortly and a whole load of other woolly words like them get used in RNSs all the time as code for - it ain't certain so don't be surprised if it does not happen.

Inescapable facts are:

By going public RJ has severely damaged all shareholders.

The rights and wrongs of whehter or not the BoD was right to reject RJ's proposal (neither proposal fully funds to cash generate production) are irrelevant to the vote on 1 Aug. Back the placing or put the the shares on a clear path to 0p (there may be ways of avoiding this but they will be really really painful) is the choice. If you don't like either of those 2 then vote with your feet and sell now.

My ticket to the GM on 12th is worth every penny I could lose if the tiny amount I hold goes to 0p.

[tima441] 16/7/2022 10:56

My questions to Align. Genuinely want to understand if they have any serious alternative

[tomboyb] 16/7/2022 10:50

from post 6517 -

I am also sorry to say to shareholders that it was confirmed directly to me and in a call with Eales and James Pope of TPI that the reason the last capital raise was done at such a discount was because Ironveld’s Board were asked to put hard cash in as opposed to just salary conversions and they declined. Sad fact (2) – I have also been made aware of a further offer of £1m at a significant premium to the current stock price that was made and that would have complemented our debt & warrant offer and that this was turned down. Draw your own conclusions in this regard.

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 10:39

Just checked to see if the offical circulars have been posted on the website for both GMs - they said in the RNS they would be.

Guess what! At time of posting neither have been.

Invest in companies that have a good business proposition (we have no idea whether the proposition is good, bad or indifferent)

That are well run - If they can't even put the things on the website they say they will!

By good people, ie ones that don't mislead the market.

[aceuk] 16/7/2022 10:08

This is my reading task for later when I may comment - Align response

[malcolmmm] 16/7/2022 00:26

I have been to and crossed the Limpopo at Bytebridge also visited Joberg quite often

[al101uk] 16/7/2022 00:20

Ladeside,

I took a different approach to you, instead of giving up on valuation, I gave up on the companies I couldn't value :-)

[malcolmmm] 16/7/2022 00:19

Maybe lots of iron ore etc in the ground,perhaps the problem is that it is difficult and expensive to extract ie. The depth and hard rock so perhaps the problem all along is that it is not cost effective to mine hence the constant delays. Just a thought I could be wrong butthe gold mines have the same problems 🤣

[rec0very stock] 16/7/2022 00:13

Yep just bet on the horse you like the name of - great fun when it comes in and if it doesn't it was only ever a gamble, you knew it was risky, it's only money after all.

However if you want to buld a nest egg for retirement at 55, then a different strategy is required. The first thing to learn is what not to buy - don't buy anything that you cannot make your own reasonable judgement on the risk reward balance. There are standard techniques for assessing both risk and reward - if none of them work because you just don't have sufficient information you can have confidence in, don't buy. There are one or 2 gems to be found at the bottom off the cesspit, but most of what's down here is best assessed using the Bristol Stool Chart not its share price chart. For a mining company to be claiming it is about 18 months from sales "Once the acquisition and refurbishment of the smelter have been completed, first product sales and cashflows are expected within 12 months." and none of us to have any idea what the risk / reward is is staggering! All the information anyone needs should be in a published DFS - I am waiting on one from my producing gold mine for its phase 2 expansion from 90 KOzPA to 130 KOzPA, when it comes in I will post it so you can see what one looks like.

Alternatively you can buy IRON because you like this name "Giles Clarke has been a PLC director for 40 years since he was 29 and is a former Chairman of the England & Wales Cricket Board ("ECB"). When Giles became Commercial Chairman at the ECB in 2004 it had net liabilities of approximately GBP2 million; when he stepped down as Chairman of the ECB in 2015 it had net funds in excess of GBP70 million." That is the entire investment case here. The CEO misleads the market, whether deliberately or through incompetence does not really matter. The only person whose word I would have less faith in than ME's is RJ's. If RJ bought into a company I held after what we have seen here, I would go back to the drawing board with my risk / reward assessment and take the final step I have learned.

The final and most difficult step is learning to cut losses, that is where the emotion comes in. Some will never overcome their emotional attachment and employ totally self defeating arguments like: the share price must go up again (yes it will as nothing goes down in a straight line but that does not mean you will be able to trade in and out and get it back that way) and I will sell then. But you won't because it could go up even more and get you back a bit more of what you lost. And actually you bought to make a profit so it must go up even more so you do make one and you know that if you average down now then it does not have to go up so much. And when it does you will feel good about yourself, no matter how long it takes - waiting for Godot.

Come to terms with the reality that there is no reverse Newtonian law that what goes down must go up. Focus on what you could do with what you get back eg invest in something where you have confidence in your own assessment of the risk / reward balance and that the losses you have cut can be offset against CGT on what you make by doing so. Think about the opportunity costs of waiting for Godot.

There is a reason why I am thoroughly enjoying the roller coaster ride and am now really looking forward to attending the GM, where I will vote to boot out GC and ME and meeting up with a retired friend from my shareholder activism days (great for learning what not to buy) who I have not seen since well before Covid.

[ladeside] 15/7/2022 20:15

I gave up trying to "price" assets and company share prices / mcaps a LONG time ago, simply because there are far too many variables in play, such as, irrational sentiment (either positive or negative), less than transparent RNS's from boards, the "herd" effect (again, both positive and negative), left field price shifting news and of course legalised corruption by certain market players.

It's wrong that there are so many questions and not enough answers but that's always the way with AIM unfortunately and I suppose if you want to benefit from big profits, you must also accept the big losses with eyes wide open.

The positives here are that it's unlikely we'll drop back to the 0.30 placing price and VERY unlikely that we'll drop below it, so ANYTHING positive from here on in should see the share price move upwards, although how far upwards is another matter entirely !!

[al101uk] 15/7/2022 17:26

GC certainly hints that the placing price would have been higher had RJ not started shouting to the world.

Ironveld are currently a story stock, so they are being priced on sentiment. There feels like a lot of risk here, there's no cash flow, there are power struggles between management and the major shareholder and there is continued failed delivery over a long period of time.

What isn't being priced currently (and possibly for good reason) is their capitalised expenditure of £20 million on the licenses, the smelter with an insurance value of £30 million and cash of £4-5 million to carry them to production. The only debt they will have will be the £5 million that is secured on the smelter.

The fundamentals of the company won't factor in to the price unless/until Ironveld deliver on their promises... but IF they deliver, I think even a marginally profitable company with Ironvelds assets and a plan could turn around sentiment and could easily see 1p and a £30 million market cap.

The major stumbling block for me right now is that Ironveld haven't published their expectations from a functioning 7.5MW Smelter, without that part of the puzzle it's impossible to calculate risk/reward at this point.

[rec0very stock] 15/7/2022 17:26

Looks like I could be on for attending in person on 12th - a shareholder is a shareholder no matter how many or few he holds.

[ladeside] 15/7/2022 17:13

Yes, good advice Recovery and can't argue with anything there.

[rec0very stock] 15/7/2022 17:06

LADESIDE we have all been there. I was a lot like you for the first 10 years but got fed up of punting on shareprices and started looking at company values and what makes them genuinely grow. It took a while to learn how to do it and I still get it wrong now - the small punt I took on the 21 Oct RNS is just one example. I don't regret it as I learned a valuable lesson. There is no point losing money if you don't learn anything from it.

I guess I started like the sort of person who goes to the race track and bets on a horse he likes the name of. Now I study the form in a lot of depth and win more than I lose. I have definately gotten older and hope that also means wiser. Applying techniques I use all the time at work like risk analysis, discounted cashflows and critical thinking have helped a lot in that regard. Getting closer to retirement also focuses the mind and changes the sort of investment I want - ones I don't really need to watch constantly but will provide me with additional income.

[rec0very stock] 15/7/2022 15:52

The price would be meaningless now and far better for people to do their own simple arithmetic - discount from 0.7p to 0.6p and now placing at half that so twice the dilution thanks to Jennings. It would have all depended on how the book build was going at the time RJ was brought inside it may even still be inside info and maybe there is a trap there for RJ to release it himself.

[ladeside] 15/7/2022 15:41

Yes, you could be right, getting emotionally involved with ANY share, is a sure way to losing your shirt !!

[ladeside] 15/7/2022 15:38

Yes Recovery, but I was meaning why does he not release that info now ?

One could argue that the reason that he's not revealed it (he's revealed everything else) would be because the "proposed" placing price was possibly 0.40, 0.50 etc which while still a kick in the teeth, would have been FAR more palatable than the 0.30 which we eventually ended up with due to the price crash which ultimately would be on him !!

[rec0very stock] 15/7/2022 15:34

Traders worry about short term fluctuations in price, investors look for value as in the long term price and value should be about the same. Your problem is you won't sell always dreaming of the long term. I consider all the long and short term factors, but when I have decided to sell, I get on with it rather than making excuses to myself about what the share price might be if I wait another week or month or year or decade.

I have enjoyed every moment of the roller coaster ride so far and will continue to enjoy it all the way to the end. Wishing everyone the best of luck with their trades and investments, none of us have had all that much of that here.

[rec0very stock] 15/7/2022 15:27

LADESIDE re 6488. Had RJ released it at the time he would definately have breached insider trading law (MAR). The price is only set at the end of the book build it can go up, but more often down - that is another reason why it should be kept only to those who have signed on the insider register. The actual figure at the time RJ trashed it would not be the figure any placing was eventually done at. If RJ cannot be prosecuted under MAR he could easily be sued for tortious interference, but I suspect GC is keeping his powder dry on the next steps until after the placing GM has passed.

It is also worth noting that whilst the Broker Warrants will be a drag on the share price for the next 3 years, they will, when fully exercised, provide over £1m more to the company.

[ladeside] 15/7/2022 15:19

Recovery, much of what you post is very good, however you fail to ever factor in the realities of the market such as sentiment, marketing, or the herd effect and as such you're deal solely on value, but as you know, that's not how it works.

Ironveld, as an example, had a far greater mcap than currently and that was long before we had any proposed funding, any proposed smelter purchase (at cut price) and any concrete off take agreements.

This deal is garbage for existing shareholders, however it provides certainty in tough times and that shouldn't be underestimated.

The question I'd ask you is,

Do you think that the mcap will or won't have any chance of hitting £30 Million over the next few months, SHOULD the proposed deal go through and the smelter purchase/ refurbishment commences as planned ??

[purchaseatthetop] 15/7/2022 15:11

It’s called a Jewish Auction. I can post that as I am Jewish (yet another reason to hate me….)

[ladeside] 15/7/2022 15:09

Does anyone plan a wee trip to South Africa ??

I've always fancied playing Sun City and we could purchase a petrol can or two and make a little detour to Rustenburg.....

[rec0very stock] 15/7/2022 15:00

An insurance value would relate to the rebuild cost of it burning down not what someone might buy it for. The original owners went bust and so might the next owners.