Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 17/5/2024 10:25

Thank you, all the best everyone.

[horseyphil] 17/5/2024 09:51

I would echo W17Ken's comments about the amazing contribution that pf has made to this board over the years.

There's no way of knowing whether IQGeo management ever looked at this board, but if they did I'm sure that the insights and information you provided will have had an impact on their thinking and strategies. Your early suggestion on the merits of acquiring Comsof, which I think we would all agree was transformational, was brilliant.

This is not the way many of us would have wanted this to end, and it feels premature and something of a missed opportunity, albeit a profitable one.

IQGeo has been one of my best ever investments, though I was heavily underwater from my original buys in the old Ubisense back in 2013. I averaged down and then back up. Without this board I'm not sure I would have had the conviction to build up that stake and then hold it, even as the price rose substantially.

So, thank you very much pf, and I wish you every success with your other current and future holdings. Same goes to other contributors, including Red Ninja and W17Ken.

[p1nkfish] 17/5/2024 08:46

Incentives matter and management have substantial options and probably want to take money off the table + Kestrel. We are pawns. Who can they unload to without trashing the price and becoming pray to an acquisition at a lower price?

As for liquidity - I'm convinced it was illiquid on purpose so that's not much of an excuse.

Good luck but not much can be done.
I hold a very decent amount and would be prepared to hold for another 3-5-10 but that means nothing vs BoD + Kestrel + other holders combined.

Management may also receive some sweetners once KKR own it.

Know the incentive, predict the outcome.

[wjccghcc] 17/5/2024 07:54

Yes, thank you pinkfish.

This is one of my largest holdings with my first purchase at 105p. I am half minded to vote against as my % is not insignificant and I think this should be way higher in 5 years. However, I do understand their argument that profits are likely to plateau/decline over the next couple of years as they step up investment so the share price would probably go nowhere for a while.

[wjccghcc] 17/5/2024 07:54

Duplicate.

[w13ken] 16/5/2024 23:05

You've unquestionably been the most valuable and conscientious poster on IQGeo matters pf so many thanks for your contributions here over the years. It's not quite the full story that we hoped for but it's still been an excellent result for long-term holders. I hope to cross paths with you again on other forums.

I don't suppose many, if any, would bother to leave IQG money in the pot for conversion to TopCo shares with their lack of liquidity and uncertainty so it's time to move on, with or without the wait for 480p. I'll share info on the rest of my portfolio soon and I'd be interested to hear more on ideas from others who were smart enough to be IQGeo investors.

[horseyphil] 16/5/2024 13:59

When KKR acquired Smart Metering Systems (SMS), the bid was announced on 7 December 2023. The offer was declared unconditional and shareholders received payment on 22 March 2024.

[alphabeta4] 16/5/2024 13:32

Thanks, handy to have an idea.

[w13ken] 16/5/2024 11:44

Not yet but judging by previous takeovers we can expect it to be a bit more than 2 months.

[alphabeta4] 16/5/2024 11:37

Do we have any details on a timetable for the proposed takeover?

[p1nkfish] 15/5/2024 12:15

It's done but I still reckon Grid news was held back, just my opinion, no proof.

My thinking is Grid news would have pushed the price up on such illiquidity and out of acquisition price zone.

KKR have bought into a good market via a very decent way to access it.

[red ninja] 15/5/2024 09:45

Investor's Champion pay for tip website comment :-




Stonking Small Cap under offer
IQGeo (AIM:IQG), the provider of geospatial software solutions to telecommunication and utility operators and one of our Stonking Small Cap opportunities has received a takeover offer from funds managed by KKR. This is the second time in the last few months that the private equity giant has swooped on an AIM company in the utility sector, having recently acquired Smart Metering Systems for £1.3 billion.

The cash offer of 480 pence per share values IQG at approximately £333m, a modest 19% premium to the prior day’s closing price, although the shares have been on a decent run.

It will be a shame for AIM to lose another innovative growth company like this.

Shareholders with a combined 58.2% position have already indicated their support for the deal which therefore seems likely to go through.

[p1nkfish] 14/5/2024 17:31

Chance of a competing offer via Take-over is very low but not zero.

With KKR behind them IQGEO will be formidable, it will help capture parts of the Grid market and others may not like that and it become worth them taking action.

[p1nkfish] 14/5/2024 13:38

If you can't beat them join them even for the last few % is better than you can get elsewhere with the same level of risk. IMHO the risk here is now relatively low and this is a done deal.

Didn't Cavendish have a £5 target price?

[p1nkfish] 14/5/2024 13:32

Can buy at 4.7.
If it goes through at 4.8 then it's 2.1% upside.
If it goes through in 3 months it's potentially a 8.5% annual rate of return.
4 months then 6.5% annual.

As it appears to be a done deal that's not too bad. I can't see KKR pulling out and if they do they may have to pay a wad of cash to IQGEO for aborting??

Assumes low dealing charges - should be possible and no charge to sell.

[boadicea] 14/5/2024 13:24

If a sufficiently higher offer arrived (+10% or more), I think the letters of intent might well be withdrawn. If that 18.2% joined the other camp and no others voted the SoA would fail on an 18.2/40 split, giving only a 68.7% majority. The game then becomes open.

[saj3] 14/5/2024 12:50

Will we have to wait for the deal to go through as can only sell at 465p currently

[red ninja] 14/5/2024 12:30

If those 40% are already bound for the deal why would you even bother to go for a counter bid. You would be wasting your time.

Can't see PIs voting in mass against a pay day although it is mathematically possible.
Usually a fair number of PIs just don't bother to vote.

[p1nkfish] 14/5/2024 12:28

There's a longish tale beneath 2% - or at least there was.
It's a stretch to get 25% to agree to vote no.

[boadicea] 14/5/2024 12:22

On a quick read, it appears that irrevocable undertakings amount to 40% of shares (with no provision for withdrawal in case of a higher competing bid) and letters of intent add up to a further 18.2% that is presumably not irrevocable.

The SoA rules require a 75% majority.

So not quite a done deal but would require a lot of private holders to be activated to muster a 25% vote against to scupper the deal, e.g. in the event of a higher competing offer.

[p1nkfish] 14/5/2024 12:12

Agreed - short-termism commoditizes UK business and in turn UK labour over time.

We have clever well qualified & capable people (but not enough) unable to help lift others standard of living in the same country as the very ground under their feet is sold-off to the highest bidder as soon as possible.

[simon gordon] 14/5/2024 11:46

Hysterically, Jeremy Hunt was in the FT this morning stating that the UK can create a $1 trillion tech giant. Chances of that happening on the LSE are extremely remote.

We are becoming the 51st State where American capital comes and buys our tech before it scales.

Dividends, impatient capital and a lack of growth capital are hollowing out our wealth-generating futures.

Having a hedge fund PM is symbolic of British business. It's all about the short-term trade, not the long-term investment.

[p1nkfish] 14/5/2024 11:14

Yes, so be it. Shouldn't complain as a major upside to me personally but I do like to see companies reach fruition, this has only just started to flower imho.

The fact its KKR illustrates the potential.

[red ninja] 14/5/2024 11:10

It is disappointing, but I guess it was likely to end this way.

The directors and large share holders appear to have made irrevocable undertakings of support for offer ie

"This irrevocable undertaking remains binding in the event a higher competing offer is made for IQGeo by a third party;"