Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[lord loads of lolly] 03/9/2018 12:23

barnetpeter - Still waiting to know what pointers you've found, suggesting a poor future statement. And why you're so dubious about the balance sheet. Or were you just reading the tea leaves?

[bocase] 03/9/2018 12:13

Barnetpeter:

So a share price of 40p is correct eh?

That makes the P.E. about 8 for a company growing at near 50% per annum, without factoring new wins and 5G etc. I make that a P.E.G of 0.2 - a record low P.E.G in fact

If you think that is right then good luck with your position. I will sit tight and give the company the time it needs to deliver on it's strategy.

[thecrunk] 03/9/2018 12:10

Feken ell.

I am long.

Just keep waiting for this shorter knockout punch drew promised.

I am sitting tight because this is oversold.

I am actually encourged the shorters are trying so hard. Because they know what happens

[coolhandfluke] 03/9/2018 12:09

Just sold 5281 shares @ 94.825p that I bought 28/8 @1.055p. I have plenty more IQE losing thousands so will take this 5 k pounds elsewhere.

[lord loads of lolly] 03/9/2018 12:07

barnetpeter - No-one knows long-term what'll happen to the share price. Otherwise, we'd all be sunning ourselves on some tropical beach by now. But I'm interested to know what pointers you have to suggest a poor statement being issued in the future? And why you're so dubious about the balance sheet. Unless you can share some facts which clearly substantiate your views, they're no more than a blind hunch, which isn't a great basis on which to invest - short or long.

[adejuk] 03/9/2018 11:52

pile in barnet. i hope it's on margin.

[adejuk] 03/9/2018 11:51

i'm glad he never tried to develop the skills needed for decorating. or maybe he did and couldn't cut it.
his taste in ties says it all for me

[barnetpeter] 03/9/2018 11:49

My view...as a shorter....is that this stock will release a poor statement and will crash. My guess is to between 30 to 50 pence. I dont know when of course.

I think a mkt cap of 750 million or so is barking. I am dubious about the balance sheet......it will be interesting to read Paul Scotts comments today!

Not expecting the longs on here to agree but as the article above explains, punters chase this type of stock every bull market. Those who sold at the 150p levels are looking smart.

All the way up the mountain. Now it is steadily falling down the mountain.

94p to buy....

[bocase] 03/9/2018 11:42

The timing of the article is curious.

If you held large short positions and were looking for a helping hand to exit before the price started moving up to reflect a stellar 2019 then this article may just provide that helping hand.

What a timely coincidence. Just pure luck for the shorters of course.

[7ilas] 03/9/2018 11:42

Thanks Dr Smith, this is exactly the type of view I was looking for.

[dr_smith] 03/9/2018 11:37

7ilas.
I assume you are after a third party/unbiased view.
Recent results here:

Of note, see:
"6. CURRENT TRADING AND OUTLOOK"

====================================================

The guidance chart shows substantial increase in income over a 3-5 year horizon.
That requires the capital Expenditure noted in the chart to cope with increasing demand. That expenditure eats into profit (directly or indirectly), but there to capitalise (make the most of) the many new products generated from the internet of things (and phones).

IMO to invest depends upon your investment horizon. I am in it for the long term and see this as very healthy. IQE has multiple income streams and via "the hub" and reputation is firmly engrained as provider in volume and quality, so all looks rosy for the future.. if you can wait.

I believe some here have bought in and lost in short term, no one likes that, but you have to go in expecting to go beyond the short term plays.

I am a nobody.. you don't know me, IMO - don't pay attention to unsubstantiated views. It is worth the time to do the research, if you are an investor (implying medium to long term).

Dave (Not a Doc).

[kazoom] 03/9/2018 11:22

There are frankly quite a lot of holes that one could pick in the article, but I'm not sure I can be bothered.

Here's just one instance that illustrates the selective use of data to make a point rather than take a balanced view.

"what's striking is that profitability was down across the board in the first half of the year"

I said before the results that someone would make an issue of that expected and explained fact.

And going further
"Another excuse was the cost of switching some machines from photonics to wafer [he means wireless] production, which seems odd [Is he then implying they are lying?] given wireless sales were only 11 per cent higher than the same period in 2017. "

Firstly 11% is no small deal in itself if you have to switch capacity in order to deliver it and secondly the 11% constant currency figure for H1-18 vs H1-17 is not really the point. We now that in order to meet the VCSEL demand they had to switch capacity away from wireless in H2-17 - tracking back through the currency effects it looks to me that H1-18 wireless revenues were more than 20% up on H2-17 (constant currency) so it's hardly suspicious or "odd" that they had to switch back capacity (as they had already indicated they would) at a cost.

We also know that they are taking steps to avoid having to flip capacity in the future.

To be honest, I've rather gone past caring whether the wider market believes this stuff or not - we will see what the results are in due course, but at this stage the management are telling us that they remain confident of meeting expectations.

[lord loads of lolly] 03/9/2018 11:17

7ilas - one other thing. Photonics (where the main growth is expected) is also higher margin. That could change over time of course, but it has led to IQE targeting an improved group margin of 25%+ between now & FY 2022.

[richardc77] 03/9/2018 11:07

Just read the past few weeks then or read the August 28th results, but do some of your own research before investing ;)

[lord loads of lolly] 03/9/2018 11:06

7ilas - I think the article makes some valid points. But it has overlooked IQE still expecting to meet FY targets - quite an achievement given the sector's current inventory surplus. And it makes no mention of IQE's forecast 40%-60% sales growth in Photonics over the next FOUR years (with more modest growth predicted in Wireless & IR). So some valid criticisms, but insufficient attention paid to the many positives expected over the next 3-4 years IMHO.

[7ilas] 03/9/2018 11:01

I don't really have time to read through 20,000 posts, no. Was hoping for a quick summary of future / upcoming potential deals / news etc. But that's cool..

[hoverflyman] 03/9/2018 10:57

7ilas, he’s left out the future.

[richardc77] 03/9/2018 10:51

My advice is to read the posts 7ilas, and if you haven't got time for that then don't invest.

[7ilas] 03/9/2018 10:47

I can appreciate investors here aren't going to be huge fans of the writer of the article, but has he stated anything that isn't factual, or left out extremely positive news / upcoming deals etc?

[richardc77] 03/9/2018 10:46

Enough said, Jack of all trades and a master of none...

[mhassanriaz] 03/9/2018 10:43

About the Author from FT.
Dan McCrum

Dan is the editor of FT Alphaville while Izabella is on maternity leave. In more than a decade at the FT he’s been Capital Markets Editor, written for FT Alphaville, worked as the FT’s Investment Correspondent in New York, and had stints writing for the Lex Column.

Before that Dan worked briefly at the Investors Chronicle, and has at one point or another carried furniture, sold kids books on doorsteps, and painted but not really decorated.

He also spent four years loitering in Citigroup’s equity research department where he picked up a few ideas about the value of luck, timing and a catchy pitch.

Dan likes interesting charts, short sellers and descriptive triplets

[belt n braces] 03/9/2018 10:42

I think that article is pretty spot on and backs up what I have been saying for a while on here now.

It does not matter what capacity you get in a factory and how much you can produce. It does not matter how much machines you get in and fitted. You still have to sell the product, and at a profitable margin, and get paid. If you cannot do that, you finish up with a pile of cheap stock on your books that is difficult to move on. Bigger is not always better, if your expanded capacity is a lot higher than demand, the downside risk is materially higher.

[richardc77] 03/9/2018 10:33

squire007, I'm not sure the shorts are leaving that quickly yet, still at 10.5%, however I do agree at these prices it is a bit of a gift. I don't believe it will get down to Sheepys buy price of 80p, BUT if it did I'd be confident enough to add to an already very large holding.

[squire007] 03/9/2018 10:30

The 'shorts' are leaving the building a bit quicker each week........... when they can be bothered to honestly declare thier posistion there is going to be one big rush and up we go, so now it is time to help them out, buy what you can imo ... ;-)

[richardc77] 03/9/2018 10:28

7ilas, I think it will be proved that you have arrived at IQE at an excellent time! So long as you have some patience, 2019 looks to be where the ramp starts, through 2020, 2018 saw a pause after the 2017 ramp. However I expect it will trade in this channel between mid 90s and low 100s for a while yet. Patience will be rewarded, panic will not be...

5G is not factored in at all yet, and Android is coming onboard the FACE ID bandwagon, as will a significant % of any "computer" / anything with a screen / anything that needs ID you can think of.

When IQE announce more new reactors, the share price will react ;)