Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[suffersnofools] 08/6/2018 12:00

Mark_in - various factors:The semi sector is very cyclical. I'm a big fan of IQE and have been here longer than anyone else I should imagine. BUT as a growth stock it is volatile and even small mis-steps in commercial execution versus forecasts will be heavily punished. It's no longer cheap. When I was buying at 2 and 3p many years ago it was bluesky and valued very differently on future potential. I made my money on the run up to 20/30p area, so it owes me nothing, and I've kept a few hundred thousand shares to run the course, as I believe it's a great British company and offers steady growth prospects over next 3/5 years. However, as it's now revenue generating and a much more mature operation it has to justify its valuation. For me it's around fair value, but the multi-bag money has already been made. I wouldn't be putting in new money at current levels myself, given my bearish view on the wider markets and economy. Anyone who believes this won't get pummelled in a bear market is deluding themselves. But of course if the market proves me wrong (it won't be the first time!) then sentiment could get this to new highs.So I guess the answer is, what level are you in at, what's your time horizon and appetite for risk? As ever you need to balance the realities of the situation against the fan club bulls who post on these BB's. Pages and pages of enthusiastic missives on the world beating tech of IQE is great, but that has to translate into PROFITS! History is littered with great tech companies that couldn't make decent consistent profits, even on high turnover due to the brutal cost-downing nature of the sector and ever growing R&D costs. Anyone who was invested in IMG knows the cost of not being questioning and sceptical enough of wild claims for world domination by management and permabulls! I'm not saying IQE is in the same position , it's much more diversified for a start , but you get my point. Caveat emptor.

[dr_smith] 08/6/2018 11:54

Mark_in.
I think we all need that.
Most on this BB are LTH so opinions will be biased ‘pro’ IQE and you should DYOR so that you inside are happy, not swayed by a bunch of strangers.
I use the BB to find facts then make own decisions.

IQE is on a journey from ground zero to sky high.. so where it sits in between, is anyones guess, and will vary depending upon how many months/years your investment horizon is, hence some variance in share price

Adding to the variance is the volatility.
Sometimes a reflection of reality and business events – e.g. apple progress, dollar to pound, other times there seems no explanation, so we (I) assume it is shorters.

Shorting plays on sentiment, which tends to be a short term game, whereas I invest based on facts and probability of future expectations being reached, and expectation os sentiment/reality catching up to be reflected in share price
That is a long term play, so means you mustn’t be pressurised to selling in shorter term to meet financial obligations.

We all have different attitudes and perspective on the risk.
Sh*t can and does hit the fan, so have to say again, to DYOR and you must do what your heart and mind says is right for you, not be swayed by third parties.

The nature of IQE business makes it different to other shares – that can be either good or bad, that is a risk you have to take on chin.
No one knows if our own investment decisions are good beforehand, only with hindsight. It is a scary path, so you have to decide if it is right for you.
All IMO. :-)

Dave (not a Doc)

[rathean] 08/6/2018 11:49

Why is TW banging on about a profit warning??

[bocase] 08/6/2018 11:44

Mark_in:

We are all frustrated but if you are wondering why the share price goes through these cycles, you have nearly answered the question yourself.

"I'm on the verge of selling"

That is exactly what the institutional holders want. They can push the share price down and scare out the nervous private investors and pick up the shares cheaply.

The term 'tree shake' is a good one as all the loose fruit will fall.

Without the uncommitted investors selling they would have no choice but to pay more for the shares which are a limited resource and the price would rise until sellers were tempted.

As I see it then you and other nervous investors are part of the problem if you do sell.

Be part of the solution instead by sitting tight.

Value will be reflected in the share price eventually but patience is needed.

[paradores] 08/6/2018 11:43

"All three models would carry the TrueDepth 3D sensing camera system to activate Face ID similar to the iPhone X model, industry sources say."

...as you say Sweenoid, not much to dislike there! LOL

[adventurous] 08/6/2018 11:33

A 20% shortfall !!!! - Just as well IQE decided not gear up for Apple's peak forecasts - although I doubt the story is factual, as most other 'industry' leaked stories about Apple often prove to be wrong.

[mark_in] 08/6/2018 11:27

This is my first post on IQE but I have been invested for nearly a year…I’ve very much enjoyed the great research and comments posted over that time, even through the ridiculous shorting activity back in Feb and March.

I guess I’m looking for a little reassurance team…as I just don’t fully understand why IQE goes through these cycles, I’m on the verge of selling, but I know I need to stick it out as I do believe in the products and company.

Frustrated…230;

Thanks Mark

[sweenoid] 08/6/2018 11:18

Lol
😂
So that’s actually GOOD news
The 2higher end OLED screen new 2018 iPhone’s are a gimme for 3D sensing
The question was always whether the lower-end LCD screen model was going to have 3D sensing
It appears we now appear to have a definitive answer :-)... and it’s very good for IQE
Anyone believing the next ‘cycle’ of Apple phones won’t be a ‘supercycle217; Is as confused as anyone betting against Apple - per se , those people ALWAYS end up croppers.

Just a thought- when a B.B. descends to the level of “ I have a bigger one than yours” does it make anyone else wonder, whether it’s worth spending a single moment of your life here?

:-(
S

[jojaken] 08/6/2018 10:21

Further to the Bloomberg story, Nikkei, the original source for the story also reports a possible delay with the cheapest of the 3 new iPhones. Apparently suppliers are having issues integrating the LCD with the TrueDepth camera system.
hxxps://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Apple-warns-suppliers-of-20-drop-in-new-iPhone-parts-orders

"The production yield for the LCD model's 'touch' function is not satisfactory at the moment, but it is improving," one of the supply sources said. "The cost-effective model is viewed as the tool for Apple to boost its total shipment volume this year, and all the suppliers are doing everything they can to make sure the LCD one hits the shelves as soon as possible.
Two sources suggest bottlenecks exist in integrating the 3D sensing module onto the LCD screen for the first time, but that the situation is improving. "

[100laila] 08/6/2018 10:13

hxxps://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Apple-warns-suppliers-of-20-drop-in-new-iPhone-parts-orders

extract:-

TAIPEI -- Apple has asked its supply chain to prepare around 20% fewer components for iPhones debuting in the latter half of 2018, taking a cautious approach toward smartphone shipments compared with last year's orders, industry sources say.

"Apple is quite conservative in terms of placing new orders for upcoming iPhones this year," one of the four sources, who is in the supply chain, told the Nikkei Asian Review. "For the three new models specifically, the total planned capacity could be up to 20% fewer than last year's orders."

The U.S. company last year placed orders to prepare for production of up to 100 million units of the new iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus and iPhone X, but this year Apple currently expects total shipments of only 80 million units for new models, two people said.

Apple did not respond to Nikkei Asian Review's request for comment.

Total iPhone shipments, including new and previous generations, declined 1% on the year in the October-December quarter to 77.31 million, Apple's data showed. The slowdown went beyond Apple, as worldwide smartphone shipments contracted 0.3% to 1.46 billion units in 2017, the first-ever decline in the industry, according to research company IDC.

The Nikkei reported earlier that the U.S. tech titan intends to introduce three new iPhones in 2018. Two will feature the costly organic light-emitting diode screens like the iPhone X, while a cost-effective model keeps the liquid crystal display screen used by the iPhone 8 range. All three models would carry the TrueDepth 3D sensing camera system to activate Face ID similar to the iPhone X model, industry sources say.

[potential] 08/6/2018 10:02

Will end up blue by close watch :-)

[potential] 08/6/2018 10:01

A no brainier !!! Cheap as chips

[paradores] 08/6/2018 09:57

No shortage of near term new market and revenue diversification opportunities for IQE. [Beware false prophets]

[solderflux] 08/6/2018 09:38

fraudsters in full flow and spreading fake news to scare people

[momentofclarity] 08/6/2018 09:37

Thx grity, I'm new to the name so just posting the reason for the slap this morning across the space....looks like 100p a nice level for me to add if this is sustained for a day or 2

[grity] 08/6/2018 09:32

moment , don’t forget we were only in 1 of the 3 phones last year , even with a 20% reduction this year we will be Quids the n as our Wafers will more than likely be in all 3 , if rumoured predictions are correct .

[bocase] 08/6/2018 09:25

Can anyone make a meaningful guess at what percentage of IQE's revenue relates to Apple?

[momentofclarity] 08/6/2018 09:22

(Bloomberg) -- Apple told its supply chain to prepare ~20% fewer components for iPhones debuting in the latter half of this year, compared with last year’s orders, Nikkei reports, citing unidentified industry sources.
Apple drops 2% in Germany; AMS slides ;as much as 5.2%, leading European chipmakers lower
Apple is "quite conservative" in terms of placing new orders for upcoming iPhones this year, Nikkei reports, citing one of four sources
The total planned capacity could be up to 20% fewer than last year’s orders for the 3 new models
Apple currently expects total shipments of 80m units for new models this year

IQE -5%, Dialog Semi -3.3%, STMicro -2.1%, Infineon -2%
Watch U.S. suppliers including Cirrus Logic, Skyworks Solutions, Qorvo, Broadcom

[dr_smith] 08/6/2018 09:19

Can you imagine the promotional tour today, concluding with "any questions from the floor?"
Chuck (well it is USA) asks:
"So UK institutions bought in at 1.40 on this plan.
You say you have ..and are..delivering to plan and all good, yet even today share price has dropped 3% percent..check... now 4.87% to 107.5, why is this, why such volatility in such a steady plodding plan entering this inflection point you talk of?

[richardc77] 08/6/2018 09:08

Bought some more at 108p.

Fortunately VRS doing somewhat better, patience required here but we will be rewarded and happy that we had the opportunity to top up at this level...

[bocase] 08/6/2018 09:06

When the shares were 180p we were all happy. Now it seems many of you are worried..worried that maybe the prospects of the company have changed.

You are right..they have improved!!

[bocase] 08/6/2018 09:02

Foetus:

House brokers are not interested in an orderly market. Like you, they are interested in making money so don't expect anything more from them.

If you need comfort, look back at the daily chart. In the autumn we fell like a stone to 90p then hit 180p seven weeks later and in Feb we hit 100p and three weeks later were at 149p.

Don't underestimate the tricks of the professionals to scarer the private investors and to get your shares off you cheaply. They can move the market up an down very easily in a company of this size. Sit tight and you will be fine.

[mad foetus] 08/6/2018 08:59

I would like us to give Cannacord the boot and get Stifel in their place. A first class outfit with global reach and an analyst that understands the business.

[cheek212] 08/6/2018 08:58

Tree shake - how many stop losses taken out then?